Valverde Is Charging Detroit Double

by nmigliore on Jan 15, 2010 4:03 PM EST

Another year roles by and another slew of relievers are handed out head scratching contracts. Perhaps the biggest questioned contract so far has been the one given to Brandon Lyon, but since the GM who signed him to that contract is Ed Wade, we won't even bother. But what about the latest contract given to a reliever, Jose Valverde?

The Tigers just recently signed former-Astros closer Jose Valverde to a 2 year, $14M deal with a $9M option for 2012. So, essentially, the Tigers are paying Valverde $7M per year for his services. This begs the question, is he worth that much? The answer is simple: No. In order for Valverde to be worth the average annual salary ($7M) he is going to have to put up a WAR around 2, which is very unlikely. In Valverde's 7 year career, he's not once had a WAR of at least 2, with 1.7 being his career high in a season, which he accomplished in 2005. Valverde's services each of the past 2 seasons have been below 1 win which makes the $7M average annual salary even more questionable considering the Tigers are paying approximately double what they should be for what Valverde is likely to give them. And what about that $9M option 2 years from now? Tigers fans can only hope its under the team's control (or should they?). To add insult to injury, the Tigers are giving up their 1st round pick (19th overall) to sign the Type-A free agent. Ugh.

When will teams realize that certain relief pitchers are just not worth big money?

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When will teams realize that certain relief pitchers are just not worth big money?

When will saberists realize that when EVERYONE “overpays” for closers, that might in fact be a function of WAR not being a good evaluative tool for relievers.

For one, FIP will undervalue relievers as it’s been shown that relievers will consistently have lower ERA’s than their FIP’s. Secondly is leverage, which is somewhat tenuously handled by WAR. Thirdly is the fact that with relievers, scouting information can be more valuable than previous years stats due to the massive sample size issues.

When one team overpays for a closer, it doesn’t neccesarily mean that our valuations are wrong. When the Rays, Astros, Orioles, Tigers, Mets, Yankees, Phillies and probably other teams that I’m not thinking of will be overpaying for their closers in 2010, it likely means that we are undervaluing them.

by vivaelpujols on Jan 15, 2010 4:43 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

Kyle Farnsworth agrees

(ok, that’s a major stretch but I’m sure he’d agree)

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

Pete Carroll's biggest problem in joining the NFL ranks? Obeying a salary cap...

by Warden11 on Jan 15, 2010 8:44 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed.

Understanding the limitations of everything is important. And WAR certainly isn’t without limitations.

http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/

by PWHjort on Jan 17, 2010 4:15 PM EST up reply actions

He's been worth 2+ wins over at Rally's site in 2 of the last 3 years

and has averaged 1.86 wins the last 3 years.

He’s pitched very well with men on base his whole career and Fangraphs WAR won’t capture that. Whether or not this was the right move by the Tigers is up for debate, but I don’t think they overpaid for him.

by Scottwood on Jan 15, 2010 6:49 PM EST reply actions

I don't think the pay is too out of wack, it is the lost draft pick.

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 15, 2010 9:42 PM EST up reply actions

Well didn't they pick up a draft pick from the angels?

For Rodney. While that pick will be lower, it’s harder to get real value from the lower half of the first round draft. The Tigers may have decided that they don’t like too this next crop of draftees too much

by OsandRoyals on Jan 16, 2010 11:53 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah, they got supplemental picks for both Lyon and Rodney

The 2 supplemental picks combine to have the same surplus value as the 1st round pick had.

In essence, the Tigers got Jose Valverde and 2 supplemental picks for Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney, and a 1st round pick. They also saved some money by only signing the 1 reliever.

by Scottwood on Jan 16, 2010 11:57 AM EST up reply actions

still seems high for me

by AtTheWall on Jan 22, 2010 5:58 PM EST reply actions

Shock Value

The theme of the ’09 post season was blown saves: Huston Street, Broxton, Lidge, Fuentes, even Joe Nathan and Papelbon. The drama of the post season ramps of the shock value of a blown save. Perhaps agents stoked the fear fire and pumped the value of closers?

by j reed on Jan 23, 2010 11:53 PM EST reply actions