Another question: About power rankings

by nny on Jan 14, 2010 3:16 AM EST

I'm working on a simple thing to try and project 2010 record

So, I figured I'd go with BtB's power rankings as a base line. But something really jumped out at me.

For offense, it's simple, you use total projected runs when it comes to the bat (wRC). Same with pitching, total projected runs given up by pitching.

But defense and base running are different. You're only adding runs based off the average. So (completely making up numbers), if a team is +10 defensively against the average, and the average is "20 runs", that's then +30 runs defensively.

Now I understand that for a ranking basis, it doesn't really matter because every team is getting that 20 runs. But on an individual team scale basis, I'd assume that's a rather big deal.

Now I understand that you can't actually come up with "total defensive runs" because you can't calculate what the average is, you only know how players to compared to one another. But then wouldn't that make more sense to then do everything else based off average?

Or is this something like with Park Factors that I'm missing something obvious?

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By definition, average baserunning and fielding runs are 0.

So you can just add/subtract them from offense/defense, respectively.

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by Sky Kalkman on Jan 14, 2010 1:32 PM EST reply actions

Sorry that I missed this.

Sky’s right. But here’s another answer.

There are two basic ways I could do the power rankings:

1. Start everything as runs vs. average (wRAA, fielding, baserunning, pitching). Then, convert the runs above average stats to an absolute stat to input into pythagenpat and calculate the “TQI” thing.

2. Start with absolute runs allowed (by pithcers) and absolute runs scored (by hitters), do some modifications (adding in fielding and baserunning and parks), and then input the absolute runs into pythagenpat to calculate the “TQI” thing.

Either way, you have to ultimately get into absolute runs, because there is not a linear relationship between winning percentage and run differential. That’s what pythagenpat helps us cope with, but it requires absolute run inputs.

And either way, you’ll come to the same answer.

Hope that helps,
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Jan 26, 2010 9:20 PM EST reply actions