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DiamondView: 2009 Los Angeles Dodgers

This week the DiamondView series will switch both coasts and leagues while taking on the NL West. Each week we will be reviewing a different division from the top of the standings on down through the bottom, and this week we will begin with the class of the West, the Los Angeles Dodgers.

 

CF Matt Kemp

Batter-dvc2-dodgers-cf-kemp_medium

Don't let this beautiful image (or the visual false equivalence of base running and on base) fool you, Matt Kemp is a well above average CF that earned a .297/.352/.490 for 2009...for just above league minimum. At 25 and several years from peaking, he's doing everything you could ask while getting paid less than teams that need help (Royals) are willing to to pay aging vets with less ability.

 

Star-divide

1B James Loney

Batter-dvc2-dodgers-1b-loney_medium

Loney is a league average first baseman with the glove, on the base path, and attempting to get on base, but his power "ability" is the 9-volt equivalent of 3-mile island. You're just not gonna get very far with him. Like Kemp, he's 25 and getting a little more than league minimum, but his lack of power (13 homers each of the past two seasons) will cost him.

 

2B Orlando Hudson

Batter-dvc2-dodgers-2b-hudson_medium

Now a free agent, O-Hud has reached aging-veteran status and nothing shows that more than his gradually descending ability in the field. Once a 16.9 UZR value in Toronto (2004), the past two years he's been in negative territory (-5.1 and -3.3). At 32, Hudson would still be a valuable player for teams with his ability to get on base and not embarrass himself once there. And at probably less than the $3.4 one-year deal he signed with the Dodgers for 2009, his projected WAR (2.2-2.6) will definitely be picked up.

 

3B Casey Blake

Batter-dvc2-dodgers-3b-blake_medium

Blake's DiamondView came as bit of as surprise, honestly. I really had no idea...how better than average he was. He's a free agent 3B, and at 36, has no right to be better than anybody, much less most starting 3rd basemen in the league in every tool. Still good for a .280/.363/.468, Blake won't be out of work long, but that $5 million he made last year might be a thing of the past. he still has some value, but his cliff can't be far off. (Thanks for the heads up, Keith.)

 

C Russell Martin

Batter-dvc2-dodgers-c-martin_medium

Ignore the fielding quadrant while you try to digest the fact that most pitchers have more power than Mr. Martin here.

 

LF "DH" Manny Ramirez

Batter-dvc2-dodgers-rf-ramirez_medium

Manny, I wish I knew how to quit you. It's really amazing that Manny isn't DH'ing somewhere, and there's little wonder why LA kept* Pierre (below) on the roster. For now they'll have to hope that nobody hits the ball to this defensive black hole.

 

RF Andre Ethier

Batter-dvc2-dodgers-rf-ethier_medium

Remember, power is more valuable to a team than fielding. However, with Manny taking reps in left, LA is going to need those home runs to overcome the defensive holes in outfield. All power and no glove, Ethier is a liability.

 

LF John Peter

Batter-dvc2-dodgers-lf-pierre_medium

All glove and no power, Pierre is a perfect defensive replacement with an impressive ability* to get on base and move around the path once there. Please refer to the MannyBManny and Ethier Diamondviews for further explanation. *BABIP!

 

SS Rafael Furcal

Batter-dvc2-dodgers-ss-furcal_medium

Furcal is the extreme example of a DiamondView-expected shortstop: very little power almost made up for with a quality glove. If we always remember that these don't show that Fielding and Power are actually unequal, one might ask if they're overpaying ($30 MILLION for 3 years) to overcome some defensive liabilities elsewhere on the team.

 

Dodgers Team Composite

Batter-dvc2-dodgers-team_medium

The 2009 Dodgers could definitely get on base, but the power numbers makes one hope for some creative lineups. That said, this team is likely to look a bit different in 2010.

 

 

AL East: YankeesRed Sox | RaysBlue Jays | Orioles


NL West: Dodgers | Rockies | Giants | Padres | DBacks



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Very cool.

Of course, as the White Sox will see later on, Pierre’s actually not good at getting on base, but rather just got more bloop singles this year than usual.

by SFiercex4 on Jan 11, 2010 9:07 AM EST reply actions  

Casey Blake is close to getting the square.

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Jan 11, 2010 9:18 AM EST reply actions  

He did have a quietly impressive year

But his BABIP was the highest of his career and his pop-up rate was the lowest, and while he showed increased patience, he’s also getting up there in age.

And his 2009 UZR was fairly out of line with his career performance, which is slightly below average, to put it into context.

First it was Paige, now it's Price.
You can find me at http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/

by Satchel Price on Jan 11, 2010 11:57 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

The Dodgers have found the newest inefficiency in the market,

totally kickass beards. Blake’s Ultimate Beard Rating is through the roof and since Smoltz went with the goatee, no one can compete…

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 12, 2010 3:25 PM EST up reply actions  

blake has been a monster in his beard days…going all the way back to cleveland.

by bross09 on Jan 14, 2010 9:42 PM EST up reply actions  

I like the visualizations...

But what’s the value in them? I mean, Pierre doesn’t have an impressive ability to get on base; he’s been league average for three seasons before this. Graph last year, and he looks completely different.

by KMils on Jan 11, 2010 11:02 AM EST reply actions  

Fantastic point, and much appreciated.

The value is up to the interpreter, I guess.

The purpose is to establish and/or enlighten the viewer of each position player’s “type,” Pierre being the speedy-glovey noodle bat defensive replacement type. The value of these would be, at the very least, some context for visual comparisons, and I believe these serve that purpose.

I really can’t wait to reveal the next iteration of these, though. I think it will put the projection in context with the player’s past several years of production.

Zimmerman, I’m looking at you.

by Justin Bopp on Jan 11, 2010 3:01 PM EST up reply actions  

We need the projections in DiamondView form to come out! Jeff, help!

Bummed, though. I thought you’d be going AL Central next. Booo division without my team in it.

My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.

Now I write at Bless You Boys.

Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.

by Mike Rogers on Jan 11, 2010 3:22 PM EST up reply actions  

You all are killing me, I have the UZR numbers

not sure about otherwise. Too many fires to put out this year. At least for right now.

the baserunning one will be the hardest to project.

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Jan 11, 2010 3:43 PM EST up reply actions  

So here's what I need:

1. OBP: CHONE
2. ISO: CHONE
3. Base Running (eqbrr or spd?): MARCELS
4. UZR: ?

by Justin Bopp on Jan 11, 2010 4:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Man I’m off my game today. I know jeff has the UZR projections.

by Justin Bopp on Jan 11, 2010 4:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Wouldn’t just a straight Marcels be the best route for EQBRR? No need to get entirely fancy since it really only helps/punishes players on the extremes. Even then, there can be written disclaimers that the baserunning measure could be underestimated for certain players.

Though, I do get being busy and whatnot. So if it’s more a matter of that than doing it, then I can understand that.

My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.

Now I write at Bless You Boys.

Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.

by Mike Rogers on Jan 11, 2010 5:03 PM EST up reply actions  

If it's a matter of compiling the data, I can do that.

It’ll take time, but should be fun.

Anybody have quick links to the data in question?

by Justin Bopp on Jan 11, 2010 5:08 PM EST up reply actions  

It’d all be at B-Pro.

Also, what do you use to make such nice looking graphics, by the by? I’ve been meaning to ask just out of curiosity.

My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.

Now I write at Bless You Boys.

Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.

by Mike Rogers on Jan 11, 2010 5:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Proprietary info, I see! Next thing I know, these graphs will be behind a pay wall some where.

My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.

Now I write at Bless You Boys.

Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.

by Mike Rogers on Jan 11, 2010 9:16 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm generally against pay walls, but I understand their purpose.

I’d like to see it used by a major site for analysis or fantasy purposes, preferably for lots of cash in my pocket, of course. :)

by Justin Bopp on Jan 11, 2010 10:11 PM EST up reply actions  

there’s little wonder why LA keeps Pierre (below) on the roster.

Pierre was traded to the White Sox in December.

These graphs are cool, though.

by Eric Stephen on Jan 11, 2010 12:35 PM EST reply actions  

Would anybody have a problem with me using CHONE across the board?

ON BASE: OBP
POWER: ISO (SLG-AVG)
BASERUN: SPEED
FIELDING: DEF

As shown here:
http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/chone010310.xls

I can do the rest if we all agree to use that data. Of course, that would mean I’d have to stop wasting everybody’s time with the 2009 review…

by Justin Bopp on Jan 11, 2010 5:48 PM EST reply actions  

CHONE is good for me

I would keep going with the 2009 review before tackling the projections.

by drabidea on Jan 11, 2010 6:12 PM EST up reply actions  

It should be made pretty clear though

that CHONE’s defensive projections are based on TotalZone, and greatly differ from the results of UZR, which is, in my opinion, a superior metric on some levels.

And if making a EQBRR projection using Marcel would be too difficult or take too long, then I think that CHONE projections of SPEED would be sufficient.

First it was Paige, now it's Price.
You can find me at http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/

by Satchel Price on Jan 11, 2010 7:00 PM EST up reply actions  

CHONE also has catcher defense and projects minor leaguers

It also weights the fans scouting report for it’s defensive projections.

by vivaelpujols on Jan 11, 2010 8:09 PM EST up reply actions  

That would be great

The 2009 review’s are kind of pointless, I think. I think you should add the positional adjustment for defense as well.

by vivaelpujols on Jan 11, 2010 8:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Loney

needs more time. Like you said he is average with everything but power. He still has the frame to put power into the equation, he is only 25. I think of him as a sleeper for next year. There isn’t much pressure when you have Manny, Kemp and Either on the team to produce.

by drabidea on Jan 11, 2010 6:11 PM EST reply actions  

I've decided to discontinue the 2009 Review and to move forward with the 2010 projections.

I will be using CHONE with a positional adjustment (provided I can figure it out) for the fielding data.

I think I will just start right here in the NL West and reset the Dodgers DiamondView then circle back around to the AL East, since that was the only one completed.

This will eliminate the catcher problem, the relative “what is this for” questioning of reviewing 2009, and allow the author (me) to pull a singular data set rather than attempting to combine different data with different total players (try using FanGraphs to combine all batter data with all fielder data, I dare you).

The cost will be using CHONE’s totalzone and speed instead of UZR and EQBRR, respectively. This might result in a slight discomfort from certain readers, but should more than serve its purpose of comparison between players.

Any further input before embarking upon Diamondview 2.0 is appreciated.

by Justin Bopp on Jan 12, 2010 2:25 PM EST reply actions  

Difference in positional adj.

The scale for TZ I believe is different than that of UZR. My gut says that they’re something like this:

C: +10 runs/’162
1B: -10
2B, 3B, CF: +2
SS: +8
Corner OF: -8
DH: -15

I could be wrong, but it’s something to keep in mind. If I’m wrong, ask the source (Rally), obviously he knows.

by SFiercex4 on Jan 12, 2010 5:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Here's a preview. Let me know what you think.

I’ll do a full reset on Monday with an explanation. Besides the hard-to-decipher “1B” as his position which I already notice, any further visual suggestions will be considered.

In this case, the position average matches almost exactly for Loney at 3 points, which hides it pretty well. It will look similar to to the old ones in terms of contrast for almost every other player.

by Justin Bopp on Jan 14, 2010 3:15 AM EST reply actions  

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