Graph of the Day: Texas Rangers Value Over Contract

Sabermetrics are simple, and almost universally driven towards a single idea: the separation of one player’s performance from that of his peers. All analysis is based on the idea of prudently addressing scarcity: too few players of the otherworldly talent level required at the Major League Baseball level, too few positions on a team that any can be wasted while expecting success, too little money to get all of the best who are freely available for hire.
The time and effort of so many has been spent addressing how to handle the scarcity of those positions on the baseball field, and their relative talent pool. In fact, it’s what we commonly refer to as "replacement level". How good is he, and how easy would he be to replace? So let’s address the financial impact of this supply and demand. What should he cost? Is your team getting their money’s worth on an individual level? What about as a group? There are some obstacles to finding out.
Baseball contracts are convoluted and archaic, a house’s roof never replaced but simply layered over repeatedly. There are arbitrators and option years, something called a "super two" and slotting recommendations and apparently five rules relating to player drafts, and minor league options and performance incentives and international free agents. As is usually the case, this bureaucracy is the result of legal toil between workers and those that sign their checks, a decades-long war between lawyers representing those with the money and those doing the work. What we end up with when we glue all the pieces together is sort of a lucrative facsimile of Roman gladiators: win your financial freedom through time and toil.
Despite the difficulties, good baseball players aren’t that easy to replace. This isn’t the NFL. Your first overall draft pick is not anticipated to be a major contributor three months later. The learning curve is simply too high. So in order to replace production immediately, free agency (or in rare cases international free agency) are your only available methods. And free agency costs, as you may have heard somewhere.
This is what Value Over Contract (VOC) attempts to establish:
How much more (or less) is a player is giving their team in free agency dollars versus what his contract is paying him. It is important to be taken in context: if all teams had precisely the same payroll, then the highest VOC team would be the best: this is obviously not true. But with the wild variation, it helps identify payroll efficiency (one of sabermetrics’ earliest stated goals), and also sheds a fair amount of light on just how hard it is to win at this game without money.
So, that being said, let’s look how this works with a team vying for the playoffs, the Texas Rangers:
What a difference 5 years can make in the direction of a franchise. From the shadow of a burdensome contract for the then best player in baseball in Alex Rodriguez, to only two remaining contracts of 10 million or more (with the mercy killing of Vicente Padilla and his 12 million dollars, his color coded burden clearly seen above), the Rangers have put together a team that is worth almost twice what they paid for it, with very few relative disasters to speak of.
1B/DH Hank Blalock – The end of a sad era that symbolizes lost potential, the contract that Blalock signed in 04 expires at the end of this season, and you’ve almost certainly seen the last of him in
3B Michael Young – The Rangers are definitely playing with some fire here. UZR was never a member of the Mike Young fanclub when he was a shortstop, and it absolutely hates him at third (UZR/150 suggests he’ll drop to 10 runs below replacement). Few players at this age who show that sort of rapid decline after accounting for a negative move along the defensive spectrum have any good news pending. In addition, he’s having the second best offensive season of his career, which probably isn’t sustainable. For a highly paid 32 year old, he’s burning the wick at both ends and could become a liability by next season … with 3 pretty generous years remaining on his deal. Despite the positive aspects (he has an offensive skillset that ages well), if the Rangers can find a winter trade suitor, they should pull the trigger, even for mid-level prospects.
OF Nelson Cruz – The field-good story of north
Tomorrow:
Credit - Walter Fulbright, Article; Justin Bopp, Chart
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28 comments
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Comments
fellow texas ranger mark prior... hmmm
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
by blalock84 on Sep 8, 2009 11:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
fail
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Sep 8, 2009 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOL
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"
by Justin Bopp on Sep 9, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why is the graph background black?
Makes it impossible to interpret. Try something a bit lighter.
by KMils on Sep 8, 2009 11:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Fixed. Thanks for the heads up.
The original was 900ish x 1200ish and was massacred by the conversion. Lesson learned, and original size added to the article. I’ll get with Sky to come up with a better solution.
These charts need room! :)
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"
by Justin Bopp on Sep 8, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So...
The Rangers should trade their two best offensive players this off season for prospects? At what point do you want them to compete?
by ElMerkoMuffley on Sep 8, 2009 11:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
From a value perspective it makes sense. From a WIN NOW perspective, it gets tough to defend.
Is this their year? Is next? Do you trust the farm system?
On a philosophical note: I’d like to see a study of exactly what team WAR would be required to hit that mythical WIN NOW status. +20?
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"
by Justin Bopp on Sep 9, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll be interested to read part II tomorrow
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Sep 8, 2009 11:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
And who says feedback doesn't work?
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"
by Justin Bopp on Sep 8, 2009 12:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
On Young's defense
It’s awful now; early in the season it was epically atrocious. He’s actually gained a positive 4 runs or so from where he was earlier. As he’s settled in at third, the results have improved immensely.
I like steak.
by Conjunction on Sep 8, 2009 12:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That said, he's already reached the pinnacle of his defensive ability.
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"
by Justin Bopp on Sep 8, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
DH
I’m sure, in a few years, he will pretty much be unusable on the field and end up as the DH (probably when they make a firm decision on Davis/Smoak), however, especially since the Rangers have that solution down the road, and having the human vacuum cleaner, the saver of runs, the Rangemaster himself at short stop, there’s no real reason to trade MY for .15 on the dollar, especially considering not only how well his power has returned now that he’s moved off SS, but also the PR ramifications.
by venturafearsnolan on Sep 8, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't mistake me for a Michael Young defender, but...
Last year, he played with a broken finger and (I believe) another similar injury that you’d expect to impact hitting performance.
Now…I expected him to bounce back, but I definitely agree that his production this year is unsustainable, especially since his HR/FB rate is about 6% above his career norm.
by jwiscarson on Sep 8, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
eh, he is learning 3B... im not sure how much improvements he's made, but i think the fact that
his UZR has actually gone in the positive direction recently says something. I dont think expecting his UZR to be better overall next year is such a stretch. I dont think Mike is ever gonna be a plus defender, but id think he could be better than terrible.
Feliz says his greatest thrill was striking out Boston Red Sox DH David Ortiz, one of his heroes. Yet, when he called to tell his parents, his mother had a request: Strike out New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez, too.
"So when I did that," Feliz says, "I told my mom, 'There you go. There's your present. Don't ask me to strike anyone else out, OK?'
by blalock84 on Sep 8, 2009 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
numbers to back you up
Around July 23 Young had a UZR of -11.4 UZR. Today Fangraphs list him at -7.3 UZR.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland -Tom Grieve Rangers Minor League Player of the Year
Martin Perez - Nolan Ryan Rangers Minor League Pitcher of the Year
by RangerMad on Sep 9, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's a pretty decent climb.
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"
by Justin Bopp on Sep 9, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Elvis is 21 now
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
We'll show you Obama's birth certificate as soon as you show us Sarah Palin's high school diploma...
by Brian Thomas on Sep 8, 2009 12:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well
for only about two weeks now.
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Sep 8, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They'd better not trade Cruz
He’s the only guy hitting.
That's why they call them business sox
by egriffey on Sep 8, 2009 2:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Trade your best player before he reaches arbitration?
Sounds good. But who’s going to pay for all the funerals for the front office guys?
You aren’t going to get their worth in prospects, especially when you consider Nelson’s low salary and all the money they’d have to eat for Young. Just know that they’ve been your two best players this year and hope they can maintain, because these guys have been the heart of the team and it would send a horrible message to your team and fans to get prospects who probably won’t ever reach the worth of the guys traded. It might be a little different if they were a horrible team, but the Rangers owe everyone a good team with a good front office and that’s what they finally have.
by Daniel Berlyn on Sep 8, 2009 9:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
how was VOC calculated?
Curious how the $ value that had this years pay subtracted from it was calculated?
could the same thing be accomplished by using fangraphs’s Dollars value and subtract this years play?
I ask because I’d love to create a similar graph for another team
by mhowes666 on Sep 9, 2009 4:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Kansas City fan here: Can I see a Royal graph like this?
I promise I won’t make a mess, I have a bucket here to get sick in.
by Bryan Everson (The Royalty of Roto) on Sep 10, 2009 10:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You actually can!
Let me see if I can dig it up. It’s over at Walter and I’s old site.
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"
by Justin Bopp on Sep 10, 2009 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
Thanks for digging that up, Justin. I made sure I wasn’t eating anything I would choke on when I was scrolling to the bottom.
Just atrocious. I didn’t think Guillen would be THIS bad, though, honestly. I think Rany has pretty much said anything that could ever be possibly be touched on in retrospect of this season’s blunders by management, though, between the mishandling of player injuries to complacency in not bringing up players in the farm system to replace the guys with no upside in the bigs. This year’s draft, at least, was a bright spot.
by Bryan Everson (The Royalty of Roto) on Sep 11, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, np. I think we have learned a couple things (trade secrets!) about the VOC process
so we will be re-approaching the ones we did at G&C.
Regarding Guillen and comparing this to the Texas VOC chart (among others), I’m definitely noticing some trends. Every team has an older guy that they’re overpaying, and every team has a couple young guys that they’re underpaying.
Result:
1. Teams that can get can the most production for the least amount of money are winning.
2. Teams that spend a lot — AND GET WHAT THEY PAY FOR — win a whole lot more.
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"
by Justin Bopp on Sep 11, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I do think I could re-post these to BtB and they'd still be accurate. Less than a couple months old.
http://grittyandclutch.blogspot.com/2009/08/getting-your-moneys-worth-resulting.html
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"
by Justin Bopp on Sep 10, 2009 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It says an awful lot
That Zack Greinke is a better deal than Jose Guillen is a bad one.
by Tommy Bennett on Sep 10, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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