Beyond the Box Score: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
Around SBN: Guest Blogger: Juco All-American Answers Five Questions

Justin Verlander is an Iron Horse

Detroit's championship hopes ride on this man's back and right arm.

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Detroit's championship hopes ride on this man's back and right arm.

Baseball fans (and analysts) love veteran players. Leaders, as some would say. The adoration extends especially strong to the pitching rotation. If a young staff lacks one or two gray beards then expect those young guns to crumble under the pressure of the major leagues. Most people would prefer ol' dependable if given the choice between scratched vinyl like Jarrod Washburn, Jeff Suppan, and Paul Byrd or three digital format arms consisting of ... say, the entire Oakland Athletics rotation.

For my purposes, I want to focus on the American League; the superior league and, by extension, the one which offers a tougher assignment for pitchers. Rather than compare ages and performance on a staff level, I simply wanted to know whether the young pitchers were holding their own. Any way I slice it, inherent selection bias resides. The youngsters like Rick Porcello, Brett Anderson, and Trevor Cahill are stellar young talents reaching the majors before most young pitchers. Meanwhile, do you think Tim Wakefield, John Smoltz, and Andy Pettitte stick around if not for some savvy?

Star-divide

The youngest pitching staffs - this is bullpen and rotation as far as I can tell - are as follows; Oakland, Detroit, Minnesota, Seattle, and Texas. The oldest: Boston, Chicago, New York, Kansas City, and Los Angeles. We know that a few of these teams are fielding the rotations they are out of their competitive environment.

Oakland had some hopes of competing in what appeared as a wide open division.

Detroit is making the playoffs.

Minnesota has endured some injuries.

Seattle shared faint hopes with Oakland and could have been lower if not for the budget eaters.

Texas again had some hopes and they still do.

Boston has its share of young guns.

Chicago traded most of theirs for Jake Peavy.

New York seems unlikely to ever field an extremely young rotation.

Kansas City is indefensible here, but at least they went the cheap old rotation filler route instead of Carlos Silva.

Los Angeles surprises me; I figured they would've run out of starters by now.

While this path differs from my original intent, I find Detroit's staff as one that catches my eye more than others. I'm fully capable of admitting this has more to do with Justin Verlander than anything else. Amongst the young teams, he's the best pitcher (maybe second best if you want to argue Felix Hernandez) and amongst old teams he is the best. I suppose what I'm saying is: he's good, no matter the age.

He's a fun pitcher to watch too. I had the pleasure of doing so Friday night. He throws his hard fastball early and often. The pitch is averaging nearly 96 miles per hour this season and he tosses it 70% of the time. His intent on the mound is to retire hitters by overpowering them. He does this well. When Detroit made their improbable run to the World Series, Verlander became highly publicized as the wunderkind. He's earned any and all hype that should come his way when the Tigers make October this season.

Looking into Verlander's stats led me to this tidbit.

Detroit leads the league in games in which their starter throws 120 or more pitches with nine. The second place team has five. Seven(!) of these games have been thrown by Verlander. For some perspective on this, the second and third place finishers (Matt Garza and CC Sabathia) have three apiece. Verlander has more than them combined. Only eight starters in the American League have multiple 120+ games. Verlander has seven by himself.

I have no idea whether this endangers his future performance or health -- although any starting pitcher having a season with a sub-2.9 FIP is likely to have a markedly worse season the next year - but I noticed something else while looking over his gamelogs. He is a 26-year-old and has the most starting experience on the staff and the most time spent on Detroit this year.

And here I thought veteran starters being the key was simply cliche.

0 recs  |  Comment 4 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

I’m very interested to see his performance next year. He was used extensively in 2007 — 2nd year in the league — and then in 2008 was abysmal. His velocity was down, as were his K’s.

by Mike Rogers on Sep 5, 2009 6:41 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Your concern

is duly noted. On the flip side, Verlander was 4th in the league in pitcher abuse points, and near the top of the leaderboard in average # of pitches per start in 2008. As I think you’ll agree, this hasn’t affected his 2009 performance much.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204015

by ChrisDTX on Sep 8, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Better than Greinke?
Amongst the young teams, he’s the best pitcher (maybe second best if you want to argue Felix Hernandez) and amongst old teams he is the best.

I used to work with an old man that told me. Son, every workplace has a dumbass, if you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.

by Warden11 on Sep 6, 2009 12:52 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Well that was dumb.

I actually had Grenke mistaken as older.

Greinke, Verlander/Felix.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 6, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

We use numbers and stuff.
Community Guidelines
Why be a member?
Start posting on Beyond the Box Score »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Small
PZR-based Win Values 2001-2006
Small
The "30 parks on a budget" challenge

Recent FanPosts

Small
Determining Batted Ball Rates using Pitch Type and Location
Small
a new xBABIP calculator
Img587561916661595
Top 15 high school MLB draft prospects
Sunflower_small
World Series Simulation, Game #6
Small
JT20 Dynasty League
E52205a2_small
New Look
Sth70021_small
Exploring Hit f/x, Albeit Badly
Redcap_small
Ricky Nolasco: 4 WAR or 1 WAR?

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

Primer on BaseRuns
Cool Baseball Infographics
ESPN's Jerry Crasnick on defensive metrics
I’m also a follower, since Brian Bannister’s on our team, of sabermetric st...
Top Ten Baseball-Reference.com's Sponsorships
Primer on Linear Weights
JC Bradbury on "Hot Stove Myths"
Everyone Should Learn to Throw a Cutter
Criminals of WAR
Ten statisticians you should know about

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

BtB on Twitter

Main Feed: @BtBScore

Tommy B: @tommy_bennett
Sky: @BtB_Sky
Dan: @dturkenk
Harry: @harrypav
Jinaz: @jinazreds
Jack: @jh_moore
Erik: @Erik_Manning
Tommy R: @trancel
Justin: @justinbopp

Subscribe to BtB via Email

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

BtB Goes Social


Managers

Nando_small R.J. Anderson

Limes_125_small Sky Kalkman

E52205a2_small Tommy Bennett

Editors

Face_small Harry Pavlidis

Rawlings_baseball_bigger_small Dan Turkenkopf

770insig_small Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal)

Aviles_small Justin Bopp

Authors

Banny_small erik

Raysring1_small Tommy Rancel

Jinaz-reds-avatar_small JinAZ

Jmlogo_small Jack Moore

1753738656_110919ebe9_o_small vivaelpujols

1_small Graham

Baseball_small Mike Rogers

Redcap_small SFiercex4

Small Patrick Clark

Walter_album_small Walter Fulbright