The wall's removed and now I see
My leg was pulled, the joke's on me

- "We Got It for Cheap" Clipse (Tony Gwynn Jr.'s walkup song circa 2007)

Back in May the Padres traded Jody Gerut, their struggling 31-year-old centerfielder, for long coveted favorite son of San Diego, and AAA centerfielder, Tony Gwynn Jr.. Living in Nashville and having ordered a Tony Gwynn Jr. Sounds jersey, I took particular interest in TG before this season, writing:

Gwynn continued his trend toward total slap hitter for the Sounds last year, hitting a career high 62.1% of batted balls on the ground. The result was a modest .275/.328/.331. He’ll need to raise that average this year, if he has any aspirations of a career with the Brewers. Defensively, he was a solid 4 runs above average in center. Unless he enjoys a real breakout in 2009, look for fan-favorite Gwynn to spend the majority of his season with the Sounds.

This season in Nashville however, Tony was posting the best numbers of his career. Being a classic slap-hitter, Gwynn previously relied heavily on swings in BABIP for success. In 2009, however, he hit a career high 20% linedrives in AAA, seemingly the result of working deeper into counts. As I wrote at Gaslamp Ball at the time of the trade:

Luckily, the improvement seems to stem from a genuine change in approach, not just a sample size fluke. He's swinging less (37.7% of pitches swung at vs 43.4% the year before) and he's missing less: 88.7% contact, which is up about 3% from his career norm. The result has been more walks and better contact.

I went on to predict that Gwynn would evolve into a high-OBP, low-SLG centerfielder with good defense, making the trade a win for the Padres. Other sites immediately declared the trade a win for the Brewers. Gerut, despite his recent failings, had been a 3-WAR player twice in his career and Gwynn had a hard time shaking the perception he was a minor-leaguer. Fangraphs called it a salary dump and Gwynn a "classic fifth outfielder." Paul Depodesta, Padres mouthpiece, defended the move without really saying Tony Gwynn was a good player.

Since the trade, however, the Padres are big winners. Tony Gwynn maintained the high LD% (24.4) and BB% (10.2), keeping his OBP in the .350 range, despite his low slugging percentage and batting average. Defensively, Gwynn has a ridiculous 17.2 Range UZR in center, despite just 75 games started. His +19 plus/minus rating in center is the highest in the National League, second in baseball to Franklin Guttierrez, despite having played just half a season. The result is a 2.3 WAR player. Meanwhile Jody Gerut, plagued by bad luck with balls in play, has been -0.3 WAR for the Brewers. Considering Tony Gwynn Jr. is only 26 and in his second year of service time, the Padres seem like big winners at this point, getting Nyjer Morgan 2, a hometown hero, and saving money to boot.