Our standings as of now:
Washington with a commanding five game lead. With a little under 30 games for most of contenders, how bad would they have to be to guarantee the pick? Assuming the Nationals have played to their true talent level thus far this season, we would expect them to win 10 of their remaining games. Anything can happen in a stretch of 28 games, so maybe the Nationals get hot ... or colder ... but for our purposes we're simply looking at 10 wins, 18 losses the rest of the way.
I would break out the binomial distribution charts and all that jazz, but in order for Kansas City to top the Nationals playing .343 ball the rest of the way, they'd have to win four games. The chances of that happening are less than 0.5%.
Congratulations Washington, you've done it once again.