An Update on the Race for Bryce Harper

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 3, 2009 12:15 PM EDT Comment 12 comments

Our standings as of now:

Team	Wins	GR	Losses
WAS	46	28	88
KC	51	29	82
PIT	53	30	79
BAL	54	28	80

Washington with a commanding five game lead. With a little under 30 games for most of contenders, how bad would they have to be to guarantee the pick? Assuming the Nationals have played to their true talent level thus far this season, we would expect them to win 10 of their remaining games. Anything can happen in a stretch of 28 games, so maybe the Nationals get hot ... or colder ... but for our purposes we're simply looking at 10 wins, 18 losses the rest of the way.

Team	exW	exL
WAS	10	18
KC	11	18
PIT	12	18
BAL	11	17

I would break out the binomial distribution charts and all that jazz, but in order for Kansas City to top the Nationals playing .343 ball the rest of the way, they'd have to win four games. The chances of that happening are less than 0.5%.

Congratulations Washington, you've done it once again.

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Comments

The question is whether or not one of those teams

will be allowed by Boras to draft him. No way Scott lets him go to KC.

by Justin Bopp on Sep 3, 2009 12:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

he'll be catching strasburg in 2011

by rmarx on Sep 3, 2009 1:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

When he would be...

18 years old. That might set the record for youngest catcher in the majors.

by Tommy Bennett on Sep 3, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re

i didn’t say in the majors…

by rmarx on Sep 3, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

so you don't think Strasburg will be in the majors

by 2011?

by colin on Sep 3, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Strasburg will probably be in the majors in 2011

He got a major league deal, meaning he will soon be on the 40-man roster. That means that the Nats face lower marginal costs for bringing him up soon.

by Tommy Bennett on Sep 3, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Strasburg is already on the 40-man, believe it or not, and has been for some time.

I’m not so sure the Royals don’t win this race, because they have a tougher schedule, but the Nats haven’t played well against the NL East, where most of their coming opponents are from.

by John Quinn on Sep 4, 2009 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs