BtB Power Rankings: 09/24/09


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See the rest of the rankings below the jump!

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"On Paper" Playoff Leaders (asterisks indicate new leaders):

American League: E=Yankees, C=White Sox, W=Angels*, WC=Rays*
National League: E=Phillies, C=Cardinals, W=Dodgers, WC=Rockies

 

This Weeks' Movers

"Moving" this week are the power rankings, which have gotten a bit of a facelift this week based on input from Justin Bopp and Sky Kalkman! 

There has been no change to the underlying methodology, which was originally present in the first post in this series.  The biggest change, aside from the pretty graphics, is that I've renamed eW% to TQI (Team Quality Index), which is the term I'll use for it moving forward.  In a sense, I think eW% has always been confusing.  While the number is calculated as a "winning percentage," it has never been a number that should be compared to a team's actual winning percentage.  Instead, it's a number that represents an estimated winning percentage in a hypothetical league containing all MLB teams--AL and NL alike.  AL teams will have a higher TQI than NL teams, on average, because AL teams currently play in a league with a superior level of competition, and therefore we give their component statistics a boost to reflect this difference in league quality.  In other words, if we let AL teams play NL teams all season long, they'd end up with higher winning percentages because they'd get to play the inferior NL teams more often).

Below this commentary, you will see tables that break down where the TQI number comes from.  First is a table showing expected vs. actual run scored and allowed totals, and how those winning percentages are broken down into estimated winning percentages.  If you're interested in seeing why your particular team is ranked differently than you'd expect, this is the place to start.  Is it just that the team is deviating from Pythagoras?  Or is it that our estimated runs scored or runs allowed numbers are substantially different from what has really happened?


Next are tables breaking down the specific components that feed into our expected run scored and runs allowed numbers.  Here you'll find various measures of offense, including measures of clutchiness on offense and differences between ERA and FIP or tRA for pitchers.  Feel free to make suggestions of other stats you'd like to see here.

I hope you like the new rankings.  Please do let me know what you think.

(next week, this space will include discussion of teams once again--but let me just note that the team surging the most in the rankings right now is my Cincinnati Reds, up two slots and 14-points in TQI!).

 

Converting Runs to Wins

Team RS eRS RA eRA W% pW% cW% LgAdj TQI
ARI 648 658 705 639 0.431 0.461 0.514 -19 0.487
ATL 693 694 606 642 0.539 0.562 0.536 -19 0.510
BAL 687 670 815 804 0.395 0.418 0.413 19 0.438
BOS 780 786 645 666 0.596 0.589 0.579 19 0.603
CHA 659 654 677 655 0.477 0.487 0.499 19 0.526
CHN 650 654 610 627 0.517 0.529 0.520 -19 0.493
CIN 607 585 675 689 0.467 0.451 0.425 -19 0.398
CLE 725 737 809 796 0.404 0.447 0.463 19 0.487
COL 695 708 618 569 0.566 0.554 0.599 -19 0.572
DET 692 687 685 698 0.536 0.505 0.492 19 0.518
FLA 746 749 741 743 0.536 0.503 0.504 -19 0.480
HOU 616 625 717 722 0.467 0.430 0.433 -19 0.407
KC 645 621 768 723 0.414 0.418 0.430 19 0.456
LAA 836 810 726 773 0.592 0.568 0.523 19 0.546
LAN 759 763 578 607 0.599 0.625 0.607 -19 0.581
MIL 722 719 751 759 0.493 0.481 0.474 -19 0.450
MIN 744 747 713 755 0.520 0.520 0.495 19 0.519
NYA 867 909 717 713 0.634 0.592 0.618 19 0.640
NYN 631 657 728 742 0.425 0.433 0.442 -19 0.417
OAK 727 686 724 670 0.474 0.501 0.511 19 0.537
PHI 747 748 635 666 0.583 0.576 0.555 -19 0.530
PIT 604 591 741 728 0.373 0.405 0.404 -19 0.379
SD 658 657 802 774 0.458 0.406 0.422 -19 0.397
SEA 619 622 676 697 0.520 0.459 0.447 19 0.473
SF 612 572 577 621 0.539 0.526 0.463 -19 0.434
STL 701 705 604 634 0.582 0.568 0.550 -19 0.523
TB 761 788 702 663 0.513 0.538 0.582 19 0.606
TEX 707 684 661 656 0.550 0.531 0.519 19 0.545
TOR 720 734 708 703 0.454 0.508 0.521 19 0.546
WAS 659 687 821 820 0.344 0.396 0.416 -19 0.392

 

Table Legend

RS = Actual Runs Scored, after a park adjustment
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored, after park adjustment (see "Offense" table below)
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after a park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed, after park adjustments (see "Defense" table below)
W% = Actual Winning Percentage
pW% = PythagenPat Winning Percentage, based on actual runs scored and run allowed totals
cW% = Component Winning Percentage (previously eW%lg), using estimated runs scored and estimated runs allowed totals
LgAdj = League adjustment, based on differences in league quality (justification here and here).
TQI = Team Quality Index, a hypothetical winning % based on component estimates of runs scored and runs allowed after the league adjustment.

 

Team Offenses

Team RS eRS wOBA wRC EqBRR Clutch
NYA 867 909 0.364 915 -6 -0.78
LAA 836 810 0.349 811 -1 1.99
TB 761 788 0.347 785 3 -3.2
BOS 780 786 0.345 787 0 -2.52
MIN 744 747 0.338 742 5 -2.29
PHI 747 748 0.338 750 -2 3.19
LAN 759 763 0.338 767 -4 -3.62
FLA 746 749 0.337 749 0 1.04
CLE 725 737 0.336 740 -3 -5.21
TOR 720 734 0.334 725 9 -7.66
MIL 722 719 0.333 728 -10 1.53
STL 701 705 0.332 702 3 1.27
COL 695 708 0.331 701 6 -3.96
TEX 707 684 0.330 686 -2 -1.86
DET 692 687 0.330 689 -2 1.83
WAS 659 687 0.328 696 -9 -4.49
ATL 693 694 0.327 708 -14 -1.68
OAK 727 686 0.327 674 12 -3.34
BAL 687 670 0.324 691 -21 -2.61
SD 658 657 0.322 665 -8 2.71
NYN 631 657 0.322 653 3 -1.1
CHA 659 654 0.322 663 -8 -2.48
CHN 650 654 0.320 667 -13 -5.25
ARI 648 658 0.319 664 -6 -3.99
HOU 616 625 0.319 624 1 3.44
SEA 619 622 0.317 623 -2 2.32
KC 645 621 0.317 632 -11 -1.65
PIT 604 591 0.313 600 -9 -2.79
CIN 607 585 0.308 593 -8 -2.11
SF 612 572 0.308 561 11 3.48

 

Table Legend

RS = Actual Runs Scored
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored: wRC + EqBRR
wOBA = The Book's statistic, but park adjusted, and using data from both wRC and EqBRR
wRC = From FanGraphs, with baserunning removed, after park adjustments
EqBRR = Dan Fox's fielding composite fielding statistics from Baseball Prospectus
Clutch = "Clutchiness" measure from fangraphs; difference between actual WPA and expected WPA based on component statistics.

 

Team Defenses

Team RA eRA ERA tERA tRuns BABIP Field Catch
COL 618 569 4.25 3.56 574 0.307 7 -2
LAN 578 607 3.40 3.78 629 0.280 25 -3
CHA 677 655 4.21 3.82 623 0.303 -27 -6
ATL 606 642 3.62 3.85 629 0.308 -17 3
CHN 610 627 3.85 3.88 629 0.293 -4 7
ARI 705 639 4.41 3.95 648 0.308 20 -11
BOS 645 666 4.24 3.96 636 0.319 -22 -8
STL 604 634 3.62 3.97 646 0.297 4 9
SF 577 621 3.62 4.03 654 0.291 39 -6
KC 768 723 4.72 4.10 658 0.314 -50 -16
OAK 724 670 4.28 4.12 671 0.308 -5 6
TOR 708 703 4.43 4.24 692 0.313 -18 7
PHI 635 666 4.09 4.30 698 0.300 27 5
FLA 741 743 4.36 4.36 712 0.311 -27 -4
NYA 717 713 4.35 4.36 715 0.299 4 -2
HOU 717 722 4.46 4.36 703 0.315 -22 2
TEX 661 656 4.33 4.37 701 0.291 40 4
TB 702 663 4.30 4.40 705 0.297 40 2
NYN 728 742 4.53 4.42 712 0.305 -37 7
MIN 713 755 4.52 4.47 724 0.308 -31 -1
CIN 675 689 4.22 4.54 744 0.289 43 11
DET 685 698 4.33 4.62 739 0.298 27 14
PIT 741 728 4.67 4.63 733 0.305 11 -7
SD 802 774 4.46 4.67 766 0.303 -10 2
LAA 726 773 4.50 4.72 765 0.306 -1 -7
SEA 676 697 3.91 4.72 771 0.279 67 7
CLE 809 796 5.08 4.75 761 0.313 -33 -2
MIL 751 759 4.76 4.77 768 0.301 12 -3
BAL 815 804 5.15 4.77 767 0.316 -40 3
WAS 821 820 5.17 5.00 788 0.306 -23 -9

 

Table Legend

RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed: tRuns - Field - Catch
ERA = Straight-up Earned Run Average
tERA = Estimated Earned Run Average, a home brew version of Graham McAree's statistic)
tRuns = Pitching Runs Allowed, based on tERA
BABIP = Straight-up Batting Average on Balls In Play
Field = An average of bUZR from FanGraphs and THT's team fielding statistic, converted to runs.
Catch = Catcher Fielding Runs, based on SB's, CS's, WP's, PB's, and E's, described here

Methods underlying these rankings were described in more detail in the first post in this series.

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