2009 NL Playoff Preview: Pitching Rotation - Graph of the Day

by Justin Bopp on Sep 24, 2009 8:47 AM EDT in Visuals Above Replacement

2009-playoff-team-era-comparison-nl-combined_medium

2009-playoff-team-fip-comparison-nl-combined_medium

2009-playoff-team-era-comparison-nl-separate_medium

Full charts after the jump

Yesterday we looked at the AL Playoff Rotation Preview, today we'll look at the NL.

The Phillies will take their top two against nearly any matchup in the Majors any day of the week, which you may have heard gives a team a pretty decent chance in the playoffs. Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee both have high strike out rates with 7.98 K/9 and 6.91 K/9, and remarkably low walk rates of 1.93 BB/9 and 1.72 BB/9, respectively. Lee's 0.57 HR/9 is 7th overall in the Majors. The question for the Phillies is just how deep in innings they can go before turning to a not-so-suddenly uncertain relief situation (more on that in BtB Playoff Previews to come). If they can figure that out, they have every right to expect success in October.

The Dodgers have some power with Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Randy Wolf. All three are high strike out pitchers, with a 9.56, 8.06, and 6.78 K/9 respectively. Unfortunately, all three have a low-ish K/BB (compared to the other teams in this preview) with 1.97 for Kershaw, Billingsley's 2.14 K/BB, and Wolf's 2.89. This team is vulnerable, but if they can put a couple things together with favorable matchups, they could challenge anybody.

Chris Carpenter rules the roost in St. Louis, and his shockingly good even-for-the-NL 178 ERA+ bears that out. With a 2.75 FIP and an exact 4.00 K/BB, and a 1.01 WHIP, he simply doesn't let players get on base. Also impressive is his 0.35 HR/9 (!), second in all of the Major Leagues--to Joel Pineiro's 0.31 HR/9 (!!). Combine that with Wainwright's 7.93 K/9 and 0.66 HR/9, and we're looking at a team that simply does not give up home runs. If you're Philly, this is the team you should fear.

The Rockies will certainly have their work cut out for them. Even adjusting for stadium nets them with two perfectly average starters with Hammel and De La Rosa, who at least has a very nice 9.20 K/9 when he's not giving up home runs in that Colorado air (1.02 HR/9) or walking 4.07 batters per game. Ubaldo Jimenez, obviously their best weapon, is probably the 3rd starter on the other NL teams featured here. In his defense (or in spite of it, with a 3.37 FIP), he has a healthy 7.98 K/9 and a "wow, in Denver?" 0.53 HR/9. His walk rate is also slightly elevated, at 3.47 BB/9. This team needs to defy its recent history if it's going to go very far at all.

The Data:

TEAM/PLAYER	ERA+	FIP
PHILLIES
HAMELS	105	3.64
LEE	162	3.00
BLANTON	108	4.45
P. MARTINEZ	129	3.70

CARDINALS
WAINWRIGHT	161	3.17
CARPENTER	178	2.75
PINEIRO	126	3.01
SMOLTZ	129	3.79

DODGERS
WOLF	129	3.91
BILLINGSLEY	103	3.72
KERSHAW	144	3.20
KURODA	108	3.28

ROCKIES
JIMENEZ	130	3.37
MARQUIZ	117	4.02
HAMMEL	103	3.66
DE LA ROSA	108	3.96

Tweet Comment 12 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I love these graphs

Thanks Justin. I like the FIP addition as well – what do you think of reversing the y-axis? Go high-to-low, so that it further makes the point that the Cards are leading.

"But as the leadoff guy that inning, my job is to get on base and let guys drive me in." - Albert Pujols 8/20/09, base-clogger.

by lightbulb on Sep 24, 2009 10:43 AM EDT reply actions

...and I thought I needed continual confirmation.

;)

No seriously. Why reverse the axis to make the chart more obvious to the layman when the tracked statistic is jargon anyway?

"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"

by Justin Bopp on Sep 24, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions

That's fair

It was a storytelling thing. I looked at the ERA+ chart and saw bigger (or ‘higher’) is better. Then I got to the FIP chart and still had the same mindset.

Now reading mattybobo’s comment, and seeing that you might have meant FIP+, I’m back on the trolley.

"But as the leadoff guy that inning, my job is to get on base and let guys drive me in." - Albert Pujols 8/20/09, base-clogger.

by lightbulb on Sep 25, 2009 8:09 AM EDT up reply actions

These are great

I’m confused about something though. Does ERA+ really mean FIP+ or something? How is Cole Hamels’ ERA+ possibly that high when his ERA is over 4 for the year?

Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.

by mattybobo on Sep 24, 2009 11:39 AM EDT reply actions

Part of it is park-adjustment

Most of it probably is park-adjustment, actually.

Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Check me out at Beyond the Box Score as well.

by SFiercex4 on Sep 24, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Hamels' ERA+

Is actually 105.

by CajoleJuice on Sep 24, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions

This is correct.

Two of the charts will need to be corrected.

Good catch, mattybobo.

"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"

by Justin Bopp on Sep 24, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions

I still think that RA+ is more useful than ERA+ in this situation.

It keeps the defense in the equation and removes the unreasonable elimination of “unearned runs,” which are completely subjective.

I know I brought this up in the last thread, but I think this is important.

I suppose RA+ may be harder to find, though, I don’t know.

---
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com \\ twitter

by Jack Moore on Sep 24, 2009 5:12 PM EDT reply actions

Hey, let's run with it.

Is there a site that provides that in a prepared format?

"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"

by Justin Bopp on Sep 24, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions

No

Shouldn’t be too hard to figure out yourself.

It would be (LgR+LgR)/(LgR+R) * 100, I think, although I could be wrong

Then you would have to add park adjustments, which should be pretty easy (just multiply half of the R’s by whatever the Run Park Factor is for that year). Hell, you could even get a little crazy and a do a Quality of Batter’s Faced adjustment, using BPro’s stat:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=520412

by vivaelpujols on Sep 24, 2009 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions

I know that this doesn't really help their case in this scenario...

but the Rockies pitching staff does rank 1st in WAR on Fangraphs, so they’ve got that going for them. Which is nice.

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Sep 24, 2009 7:57 PM EDT reply actions

There's still a question

as to whether Lohse or Smoltz is the 4th starter for the Cards in the postseason. It’s been my contention, and is Dave Cameron’s as well, that Lohse, if healthy, should be the 4th starter and Smoltz should be in the pen. This weakens the Cards’ 4th starter but helps to shore up a potential weakness by allowing the better pitcher — Smoltz — to work higher leverage innings (and possibly MORE innings as well) in a short playoff series. I’m not sure which direction La Russa and Duncan plan to go but if they go w/ Lohse, it does bring the Cards closer to the others in any game 4.

by chuckb on Sep 24, 2009 11:01 PM EDT reply actions