2009 AL Playoff Preview: Pitching Rotation - Graph of the Day (updated)

by Justin Bopp on Sep 22, 2009 11:46 PM EDT in Visuals Above Replacement

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Full charts after the jump.

With somewhere between eleven and fourteen games left for most teams, the playoff scenarios have mostly crystallized and now is the time to anticipate potential staff match ups. Let's take a look.

*Article updated with proper charts and commentary*

CC Sabathia really anchors the Yankees rotation with a 3.31 ERA+, 1.13 WHIP, and 3.1 K/BB. He also is only second in the Majors with 220 IP; he'll go the distance and get the game into the hands of their valuable closer, Mariano Rivera. If you want to get ridiculous, check out the Yankee's K/9 for their starting rotation: Sabathia, 7.60; Burnett, 8.19; Pettitte, 7.07.

The Angels year began with tragedy but still has a chance to end on a high-note. Lackey leads the way with a 1.23 WHIP, 2.93 K/BB, and a shiny 0.74 HR/9. He will keep them in any game if not win it on his back alone. Weaver's 7.56 K/9 and 1.25 WHIP will come in handy in October as well.

Justin Verlander's roaring season is still underway for the Tigers, and his contribution of an ABSURD 10.15 K/9 will win them almost any game he's in, provided some minimal run support. On top of that, he'll keep the ball in the park with a durable 0.83 HR/9 and leave the game in good shape with an excellent 1.18 WHIP. With Edwin Jackson, Jarred Washburn, and Rick Porcello bringing in the rear, the Tigers have as good of a rotation as any team in the hunt.**

The Red Sox, currently leading the Wild Card chase by 8 games (in front of the Rangers), also have a fantastic staff. Beckett's 1.14 WHIP and 8.36 K/9 are complimented by his 3.67 K/BB. He keeps his opponent off the bases. Of course, Jon Lester's numbers are just silly, but must be mentioned: 9.94 K/9, 3.58 K/BB, 0.88 HR/9, and a delicious 1.21 WHIP.

Regardless of which team wins the ALCS, they will have an excellent and deep staff capable of going the distance against any team. In the playoffs, watch pitch counts, as most of these are high-strikeout guys. You'll want the team you're rooting for to get above 20-25 pitches taken per inning so they can get to the less-reliable-but-still-outstanding relief staff most of these teams have. The team that can maintain the most pitches taken per inning while limiting their starter to as few as possible will most likely go the distance. Obvious, but worth stating.

** Assuming the Tigers make the playoffs, of course. As it stands at the time of this writing, the Twins are just 2.5 games back and still have a real chance at this thing.

Update:

Updated all charts to reflect ERA+, and while the general shape of things stays the same, it draws several things out a little further:

The Angels are in trouble unless they can somehow get more out of their two and three than they have all season.
The Tigers are clearly vulnerable with Washburn in the mix. He's currently listed as a two, but moving him to the back end could minimize damage.
The Yankees are definitely in great shape with their rotation (with a heart attack in Chamberlain)--but the Red Sox two and three slots (Lester, Buchholz) could mean the difference between an ALCS visit and a World Series Championship.
Looking at the data below, even if the Twins do take the Tiger's slot, those sub-average pitchers aren't going to cut it in this crowd.

TEAM/PLAYER	ERA	ERA+	FIP
YANKEES
SABATHIA	3.31	135	3.37
BURNETT	4.22	106	4.48
CHAMBERLAIN	4.73	94	4.77
PETTITE	4.14	107	4.06

RED SOX
BECKETT	3.80	124	3.70
LESTER	3.33	142	3.11
BUCHHOLZ	3.49	135	4.29
MATSUZAKA	6.80	69	5.20

TIGERS
VERLANDER	3.44	132	2.92
WASHBURN	3.78	62	4.57
E. JACKSON	3.37	135	4.25
PORCELLO	4.22	108	4.85

ANGELS
LACKEY	3.56	128	3.54
SANTANA	5.43	84	5.06
SAUNDERS	4.75	98	5.30
WEAVER	3.87	117	4.10

TWINS
BAKER	4.43	93	3.94
PAVANO	4.82	115	3.96
BLACKBURN	4.34	99	4.44
LIRIANO	5.79	72	4.72

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Comments

The Playoff Preview Graph would be better if ...

… you would change the scale on the Y axis to range from 3.00 ERA to 5.00 ERA and just labeled the ERA bars of the two pitchers who don’t fit in this scale with the correct number

by ekogan on Sep 22, 2009 9:26 AM EDT reply actions

Welcome to Beyond the Box Score!

Congrats on your first post, friend.

"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"

by Justin Bopp on Sep 22, 2009 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions

Why ERA?

by Tommy Bennett on Sep 22, 2009 10:46 AM EDT reply actions

Oh god I fell asleep at the wheel! :(

All the comments will remain the same, but I’ll edit the charts to reflect ERA+ later today.

"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"

by Justin Bopp on Sep 22, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions

tRA

Also cool.

"But as the leadoff guy that inning, my job is to get on base and let guys drive me in." - Albert Pujols 8/20/09, base-clogger.

by lightbulb on Sep 22, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions

nice graphs

I’ve been reading site for about 5 months now trying to help build my knowledge of sabermetrics and your graphs have always stood out to me. How do you make such nice graphs Justin Bopp?

BTW, love the site

Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson

by gore51 on Sep 22, 2009 12:04 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Recent Performance

The above ignores recent performance which I think is important when sizing up rotations. I’m a big fan of tracking trends instead of just looking at season numbers as a whole.

Using the Tigers as an example:
Edwin Jackson (6.03) and Jarrod Washburn (11.57) have been dreadful in the last month.

Verlander has been about the same during that span (3.72)

Porcello has actually pitched a little better (3.52) in the last 30 days but is well beyond his single season high in IP.

If I’m ranking the 4 rotations going into the playoffs, they are a distant 4th …

Love the site & love the graphs. Keep up the great work!

by thebaseballfish on Sep 22, 2009 12:06 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Fantastic feedback. +1 REC.

I think I’ll revisit this tonight/tomorrow with corrected ERA+ charts as well as trends before moving onto the NL.

I think looking at ERA+ per month per starter would be worthwhile, unless you (or the others reading) think I should look at it from a per-start focus? That could get unwieldy, though.

Anyway, thanks for visiting the site and the fantastic feedback. Don’t be a stranger—feedback, discussion, disagreement, and challenging opinions make us all better.

"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"

by Justin Bopp on Sep 22, 2009 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions

I think if you get into that small of sample size (monthly splits)

You should use something regressed. I have no problem using ERA or ERA+ for a full season, because there is no reason to separate defense (the same defense should still be playing) and luck should even out to a certain extent during the course of the season. With monthly splits, something like xFIP or even going further into whiff rate, velocity, etc. might show if their controllable skills are deminishing (or improving) as the season goes on.

by lookatthosetwins on Sep 22, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Also,

thanks for the disclaimer at the bottom, can’t give up hope!

by lookatthosetwins on Sep 22, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions

The way it's going, you may not need hope.

But you guys gotta keep winning regardless of what Detroit does.

"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"

by Justin Bopp on Sep 22, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Every pitcher has fluctuations in performance.

And while the last month of stats is slightly more predictive than the four before it, you’re probably over-emphasizing it. A pitcher’s last year or two overall is going to be more predictive of future performance than just the last month (injury information aside.)

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by Sky Kalkman on Sep 22, 2009 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

Yeah I gotta go Sox on this one

Best collective ERAs and there previous track record in the postseason with Beckett and Lester is hard to top.

by drabidea on Sep 22, 2009 4:23 PM EDT reply actions

This isn't beyond the boxscore at all. It's the box score with a pretty graph.

Use tRA* or FIP or something please.

by lailaihei on Sep 22, 2009 5:50 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

I'll take that.

"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"

by Justin Bopp on Sep 22, 2009 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions

But you have to admit,

These are some pretty graphs. Even the one with John Lackey on it.

by lookatthosetwins on Sep 22, 2009 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, they're beautiful and intriguing, just not that informative.

by lailaihei on Sep 22, 2009 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Seriously, Sky and RJ bringing you guys on is probably the best hire they’ve made (no offense to anyone else). I love these graphs so much.

Also, I second using something like tRA+. ERA doesn’t capture it fully, but Porcello’s ERA is a bit better in the 2nd half, but his BB’s are virtually cut in half while he’s maintained his (bad) K-rate and excellent ground ball rate.

Fire Jim Leyland

And now at Beyond the Boxscore and Project Prospect!

by Mike Rogers on Sep 22, 2009 8:21 PM EDT reply actions

I never thanked you for that, Mike. Very nice words.

(and thanks!)

"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"

by Justin Bopp on Sep 24, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks for all the feedback. Updated the OP with ERA+ charts

and added some additional commentary at the end.

I would say the Angels are screwed, but is their 84 and 98 in their 2 and 3 much different than New York’s 94 and 106?

"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"

by Justin Bopp on Sep 22, 2009 11:49 PM EDT reply actions

Still not a big fan of ERA+

Park adjusting and averaging a bad stat doesn’t automatically make it any better.

FIP or tRA still win the day here.

---
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com \ twitter

by Jack Moore on Sep 23, 2009 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions

For the readers, could you show why removing defense is good idea when comparing team pitching staffs going to the playoffs?

I like FIP and it has IMMENSE value for player evaluation, but this is not designed to rank pitchers (or pick one to trade for), but instead intended to show the entire package of playoff starting pitching staffs, which unfortunately cannot ~~-and should not~~- be looked at without defense included.

Regardless, I included both ERA+ and FIP in the data below the post.

"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"

by Justin Bopp on Sep 23, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree

FIP is the best when trying to isolate who is the better pitcher, the purpose of this analysis seems to be more of a playoff preview.

by LA Taco on Sep 23, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions

If you want to show defense, then go with RA or RA+

ERA is sort of a half-assed attempt to filter defense out of the equation, but it only gets rid of errors, and not runs caused by poor range or other factors.

---
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com \ twitter

by Jack Moore on Sep 23, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Why not include offense, then, too?

Do some sort of predicted winning percentage when the pitcher starts the game?

It’s certainly fair measure total run prevention with pitchers and fielding combined, but I think the way these charts are set up imply that you’re just talking about pitchers.

Personally, I’d rather rate the pitchers, rate the fielders, rate the hitters, rate the bullpens, etc. and then piece it all together.

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by Sky Kalkman on Sep 24, 2009 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions

On the Angels note,

if Kazmir continues to pitch as well as he has since joining them, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get a post season start. I know his season stats aren’t that great, but given the Angels 2-3 options, he might get consideration.

by philadelphiacub on Sep 23, 2009 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions

^ this ^

by Rev Halofan on Sep 24, 2009 3:27 AM EDT up reply actions

A couple of questions

1) Why wouldn’t you use FIP or tRA?

2) Why wouldn’t you use ZIPS projections? The point of this is to see how well each teams rotation stacks up with eachother going into the playoffs. We all know that this years performance isn’t very relevant when considering how they will do in the future.

by vivaelpujols on Sep 23, 2009 12:03 AM EDT reply actions

Because defense-independent pitching stats are more important when making a trade?

(and they actually have to play with said defenses)

"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"

by Justin Bopp on Sep 23, 2009 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions

Defence independent pitching statistics are the only metrics that actually evaluate pitching performance

ERA is not a pitching metric, it’s a weird team run prevention one

by Graham MacAree on Sep 23, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I like the ZiPS idea, not sure why I hadn't thought of that one before.

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by Sky Kalkman on Sep 24, 2009 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions

Awesome post

Looking forward to the NL version. I agree with the commenter who said that looking at trends might be useful as well (last 30 days, last 60 days possibly?). This site rocks.

by LA Taco on Sep 23, 2009 9:44 AM EDT reply actions

The NL version should be up tomorrow.

"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"

by Justin Bopp on Sep 23, 2009 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions

Sweet.

by LA Taco on Sep 23, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Washburn may be done for the year

He’s seeing a specialist for his knee, but I don’t think the Tigers are counting on him for their playoff rotation at this point.

Who, exactly, would be a fourth starter if needed, I don’t think they know yet.

Awesome charts, btw.

Mack Avenue Tigers

by Kurt Mensching on Sep 23, 2009 12:47 PM EDT reply actions

The assumptions for the Angels are off, though.

Lackey will be #1. Weaver will be #2. Kazmir will be #3. Santana will be in the bullpen.

Also why focus on seasonal ERA+ instead of late-season trends? The map is not the territory, and the Angels’ best four starters are not the same pitchers they were in the early part of the season.

by Turks Teeth on Sep 23, 2009 1:59 PM EDT reply actions