Houston Astros 2009 Payroll Breakdown and Value Over Contract - Graph of the Day

by Justin Bopp on Sep 16, 2009 9:00 AM EDT in Graph of the Day Comment 8 comments

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Analytical and emotional breakdown after the jump.

Where that turnaround is most evident is when there are runners in scoring position. Bourn is hitting .383 (36-for-94) with runners in scoring position, which places him second in the National League and fourth on the Astros' all-time chart, behind Jose Cruz (.389 in 1986), Craig Biggio (.388 in 2001) and Kevin Bass (.386 in 1994).

There comes a few times in the game of advanced (or even just garden variety reasonable) baseball analysis, when you sort of forget where the mindset of the average pundit is, and then you read this, and you remember: this is what you’re up against. An article praising (rightfully) Michael Bourn’s career growth in 2009 specifically mentions that the most evident gain is in batting average with runners in scoring position. For a leadoff hitter. In the National League.

If the thought process behind building the Houston Astros was in any way similar to this nugget, it’s pretty easy to understand why they’re a mess. The minor league system is barren, the talent is overpaid and old and I’m pretty sure even the ticket takers have a guaranteed contract with a no-trade clause. Just take a look at the Astros players playing with that benefit:

1B / OF Lance Berkman – 14.5 million per through 2010, full no trade clause, 2011 club option at 15 million
SP Roy Oswalt – Escalating salary (14 million in 2009) through 2011 (16 million), full no trade clause, 2012 club option at 16 million (2 million buyout)
LF Carlos Lee – 18.5 million annually through 2012, full no trade clause (expires after 2010)
2B Kaz Matsui – 5 million annually through 2010, limited no trade clause

The average age of these four players? 32.75. The total projected value of these 4 in 2009? 39.51 million dollars. Their salaries? 52 million. Only Matsui gets off the hook after next year, and he’s the littlest fish in this pond, investment-wise. Every single other one of these guys is going to hang around. Carlos Lee’s contract is probably unmovable now, and by the time 2010 ends, it almost certainly will be.

I don’t know how deep the Astros pockets can possibly be, but if they don’t want to double their payroll for 2010, they almost certainly can’t win An inflexible, aging payroll, no ability to sell for talent to rebuild, and no cheap in-house replacements is basically a perfect storm of poor roster building. There are pretty good indications from Houston that the fanbase and ownership understand this, and won’t hold Ed Wade responsible for this mess, but are they going to be patient enough for what is probably an 8 year rebuild? I hope hometown favorite (and likely rebound candidate) Lance Berkman is enough to keep them sated in the meantime.

Well, there is one possibility for easing the financial burden. Carlos Lee has a nominal weight clause in his contract. Perhaps the most prudent immediate use of funds by Mr. Wade would be to give his left fielder an unlimited line of credit at Luby’s.

Article, Walter Fulbright; Charts, Justin Bopp

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Comments

Bourn

I had no idea he was having that nice a year. Wandy Rodriguez has been a solid pitcher for 3 years now and no one talks about him much.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Sep 16, 2009 1:22 PM EDT reply actions

I picked him up for my fantasy team fairly late into the season. Phenomenal pickup.

"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"

by Justin Bopp on Sep 16, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions

neither did anybody, really

Most on TCB were expecting Bourn to be benched and replaced by midseason, but a lot of us are now considering him as the Astros’ real MVP this year (either him or Wandy). Weird.

A lot of his value has been tied up in his solid defense, but most of the change has just been in making contact with the ball (he’s striking out about 3% less) and driving it better. His BABIP is almost certainly going to decline next year, but hopefully his speed will mean that most of his improvements are sustainable.

Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.

by Only_A_Lad on Sep 16, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions

RE: Wandy Rodriguez

The biggest improvement to his game that got him his breaking out party would seem to be the excellent defense in right and center provided by Pence and Bourn, as most of the hard hit balls with extra base hit potential are hit in that general direction. If you have a potentially dominant starter with a K rate of at least 8 or so per 9, investing in OF defense in center and his likely platoon disadvantage pull corner (in this case, Pence for a lefty) seems to have some real results. I’m investigating further.

by Walter Fulbright on Sep 16, 2009 6:29 PM EDT reply actions

Actually, Wandy has had one of the better curve balls in baseball over the past few years. His recent trend of improving K rates and improving BAA has corresponded with increased usage of that curve. I don’t know if he has used it more in 2009 than he did in 2008, but I know that he had statistically significant increases in curve ball usage from 2006 to 2007 to 2008. I’m sure the defense helps, but the curve ball is the reason he has a sub-3.00 ERA.

by seanbergmanrules on Sep 16, 2009 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree with Walter, I think.

K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 are all nearly identical from 2008 to 2009. FIP has been almost exactly 3.60 both years. BABIP dropped 40 points from 2008 to 2009.

Now, if he’s throwing more curve balls and fewer fastballs and maintaining his peripherals, that might explain some of the lower BABIP. But much of it is defense-related.

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by Sky Kalkman on Sep 16, 2009 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions