Who is Seth Smith?
Once again, the Colorado Rockies success is the major story of the National League playoff race. At the time of this writing, the Rockies currently sit 2.5 games in front of the San Francisco Giants for the NL Wild Card lead, with a record of 82-64 after opening up 18-28, with playoff odds below 1%.
A big part of the Rockies' good fortune this year has been the emergence of Seth Smith. At 27, Smith has emerged as a producer at the big league level after two insignificant major league stints in the previous two seasons. Smith's impressive stats above have impressed both traditionalists and sabermetricians alike. His .402 wOBA currently ranks 13th in the entire major leagues among players with 345 or more PAs (the amount Smith has as of Tuesday night)
Smith's contributions haven't been limited to the batter's box. In 75 games as a LF, Smith has posted a remarkable +7.5 UZR (+18.4 UZR/15). Smith's .913 RZR ranks favorably as well, and would tie for third in the league if he were qualified. However, these numbers should be taken with a pound of salt, due to a small sample size and the fact that Smith did not have anything more than an average COF defensive reputation coming into the league.
Of course, thanks to our sample of slightly over 450 PAs and 75 defensive games, we're hardly any closer to answering the title question than we were before the jump. Smith's 139 OPS+ is exciting, and for very good reason. Still, a lot can happen in 375 PAs (Smith's 2009 total). There's an even greater magnitude of uncertainty in Smith's defense, as UZR is known to have large measurement error, especially in samples of smaller than a full season. So, once again, I ask: Who is Seth Smith?
Despite the small sample size, it's clear that Smith has the ability to produce with the bat. Although Smith's season to date is certainly remarkable, his minor league numbers suggested a high level of offensive talent. Even in his first professional season, Smith showed above average on base and power skills, and showed improvement each season as he worked his way up the organizational ladder.
Smith was a bit above average for his age at each of these levels, but not by an alarming amount. The increase in power in 2006 would make any scouting director's day - it's the difference between Melky Cabrera and Matt Kemp this year. After 2007, Smith had a solid argument to start 2008 in the majors, but he would remain in Colorado Springs for one more season. The increase in Isolated Discipline (IsoD) that Smith showed in 2008, along with retaining high power numbers, removed all doubt that he was ready to test his skills against a major league pitching staff.
Smith has not been able to maintain the 15.6% walk rate that powered his .106 IsoD in 2008, but a 12.6% walk rate against major league pitching is fantastic. As a result, his IsoD is at a solid .085, well above his pre-2008 minor league numbers. Much like Marco Scutaro, who also has turned a tremendous walk rate into a career year, Smith is a selective hitter, only swinging at 40.5% of pitches against a league average of 45%. Between this year and last year in the minors, Smith appears to have true talent for reaching base, regardless of whether or not the ball is bouncing his way.
What may be more questionable for Smith are his power numbers. At .236, his ML ISO is over 20 points higher than his minor league career high. His 15.7% HR/FB rate is above average, but it's within 1 standard deviation of the mean, and as such it is certainly a reasonable rate to expect out of a hitter playing in Coors' Field. The more likely culprit for his higher power numbers is the .346 BABIP he's sported entering play on Tuesday. BABIP suggests that more hits are falling for Smith than we would expect in his average sample, and as such he may have had more doubles fall as well. As Smith doesn't appear to have any particular skill connected to posting a high BABIP, like an Ichiro-type player, we should expect some regression as he goes forward. Still, StatCorner's wOBA* doesn't expect heavy regression, rating him at a still-stellar .398.
The real question for Smith as his career goes forward is his defense. Smith's scouting reports suggest that he would be an average corner outfielder at best, whereas his +7.5 UZR in LF suggests he could possibly be an above average center fielder. His minor league numbers tell a completely different story. Thanks to www.minorleaguesplits.com, we can see that Smith's poor defensive reputation coming into the majors was perhaps optimistic. Between 3 levels and 4 years, Smith compiled a total of -59 totalZone runs below average. I would be shocked to see Smith continue to compile good fielding numbers in the majors, and would expect him to regress towards average if not below.
Still, Smith appears to be fully capable of posting wOBAs near .400, if not at or above that level. If he continues to do that, the Rockies will quickly run out of excuses to keep him on the bench. Given the chance, he could evolve into one of the league's superstars.
1 recs |
6 comments
|
Comments
Who is Seth Smith?
A complete badass, that’s who. I’ve been clamoring for Smith to get Brad Hawpe’s at bats since June, he’s that good.
The Rockies really do have a surplus of excellent outfielders (Ryan Spilborghs and Matt Murton, the fifth and sixth outfielders, could start for many teams).
Eschew Obfuscation!
by Jabberwocky on Sep 16, 2009 10:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Branded your own graphics there Jack?
I like it. I’d do it myself, but I’m terrible at this type of stuff.
by SFiercex4 on Sep 16, 2009 10:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Great stuff
Those following the Rockies closely wanted Seth Smith in left to start the season. He was a big reason why the Holliday trade made sense.
Anyone wanting more can read the myriad articles by RockiesMagicNumber at Purple Row, like this one from November 07:
Do I need to point out how good the kid is? We got a VERY small sample size of his bat this September, but he batted .317/.381/.528 in AAA this past season, with 38 EBH and 17 HRs. He plays a solid defense, and I don’t see how this club can waste him in the minors. Maybe he’ll end up trade bait, maybe he’ll end up waiting around for Holliday to get traded. Either way, he’s a solid player.
or this one
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Poseidon's Fist on Sep 16, 2009 10:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That might not be the best quote
.381/.528 in the Springs isn’t that impressive, though RMN was perhaps making a different argument then (“solid player”) than most are making now. Is there really someone who looked at Smith’s minor league numbers and projected a .900 OPS?
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
by FooMan on Sep 16, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh I agree
Just pointing out that RMN was on Smith’s tail two years ago, not necessarily that he projected him to be this good.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Poseidon's Fist on Sep 17, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the reason was that he couldn't hit Lefties
http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=452234
So previously, and even this year, they would have had to have been willing to call him up as a platoon player. This year he’s hit lefties, so good for him. Maybe he can retain some of that lefty improvement, as Hawpe did, and stay on the field more.
by willkoky on Sep 16, 2009 12:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

by












BtB on Facebook

















