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MLB 2009 Attendance Comparison II - American League - Graph of the Day

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Mlb-attendance-2009_medium

A look at total attendance figures for Major League Baseball

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Mlb-attendance-2009-alc-091209_medium

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The larger the gap (exposed green or exposed yellow) the bigger the difference between success and attendance.

Today's edition follows yesterday's National League study on attendance. More after the jump.

Star-divide

 

Yesterday, we reviewed attendance for National League teams and looked at a couple discrepancies between successful teams with lower-than-deserved attendance, and disappointing teams with higher-than-deserved attendance. How does the AL fare? Here's what I found*:

TEAM TOTAL AVG WINS ATT/WIN
LA Angels 2,769,457 40,137 85 32,582
Texas 1,848,505 27,589 79 23,399
Seattle 1,901,492 27,557 72 26,410
Oakland 1,244,203 17,774 64 19,441
NY Yankees 3,207,922 45,827 91 35,252
Boston 2,573,130 37,840 81 31,767
Tampa Bay 1,663,913 24,114 72 23,110
Toronto 1,734,110 23,433 64 27,095
Baltimore 1,710,189 24,087 58 29,486
Detroit 2,155,414 31,697 75 28,739
Chicago White Sox 2,025,861 28,136 71 28,533
Minnesota 2,007,032 28,671 70 28,672
Cleveland 1,524,432 22,093 60 25,407
Kansas City 1,637,375 22,429 56 29,239

*Data collected 09/12/09 courtesy of ESPN.

 

The first thing to note is that the American League has almost 7 MILLION fewer visitors than its National League counterpart. Certainly, the NL has 16 teams while the AL only has 14 (remind me to tell you someday what I would do if I was commissioner), but look closer at the totals:

1. AL Total - 28,003,035; AVG - 2,000,217

2. NL Total - 35,658,497; AVG - 2,228,656

The NL, even with two more teams, still averages more than 200k visitors more per team. That says quite a bit for how poorly Florida is really supporting its team. But enough about them, let's focus on the AL.

 

AL East - The thing to note here is that Tampa, like Florida, is barely supporting its World Series' winning team. This really sticks out when one acknowledges that they have almost 20 fewer wins than NYY and only half the attendance."It's not fair to compare anybody to New York!" Of course it's not. And it's not fair to expect a team outside of NY and BOS to compete for the penant, either, right? This is a nice chance to point out that Baltimore sticks out because it has greater attendance than Tampa and 14 fewer wins. Attack both sides of that equation I say!

AL Central - The first thing one notices here is that everything we knew about the Central is true: the "best" three teams all hover right around 70 wins with a few weeks to go, relatively mundane in every way. And the "best" in the last sentence is the same "best" that one uses to describe his or her favorite chore, favorite class in Jr. High, or favorite Fresh Prince CD. Any more than a half-hearted "meh" is feigning interest.

The fans in the Central support their teams. Kansas City, currently in its 20-something'th year of the Denkinger Curse, have so few wins that their ATT/WIN appears higher than teams like Texas with more attendance and 23 more wins. This is a flaw in the stat, though, not some magnamimous act by the KC Loyal. Also note the fleecing of the KC taxpayer to pay for the videoscreen monolith formerly known from its performance in 2001: A Space Odyssey.

AL West - It's a shame that this division has less competition, more money, better GMs, and worse attendance. It's the AFC South of Baseball. I suppose its unfair to say that, as Seattle up until recently had Bill Bavasi which pretty much undoes all positive goodwill in a 15-state region. Of particular note is not only how bad Oakland is this year, but how apathetic OaklandFan is as well.

Overall, the study shows that for the most part, great teams in big cities have incredible attendance. The surprises are that several cities have teams they don't deserve, including Florida with its famously bored audience, and the KC Faithful with its famously horrible team management. Perhaps we can start a movement for KC and Florida to switch teams. Who's in?

0 recs  |  Comment 13 comments |

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A lot of the KC attendence can be attributed to stadium remodeling ....

… and that scoreboard kicks ass.

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Sep 15, 2009 12:04 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

adjustment for stadium size?

would it be possible to do some adjustment for stadium size? attendance is (at least in some markets) constrained by seats. Boston would have a higher avg attendance if it had more seats, thus leading to a higher att/win.

or and I an idiot and just miss that adjustment somewhere?

by bcd on Sep 15, 2009 4:49 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The first thing to do would be to establish maximum stadium size

and then see how many times the total attendance per game came near that. In Boston’s and NYY’s case (probably Philly’s and NYM’s too), that might be significant. In most towns, the only thing stadium size is limiting is the skyline. Does Boston sell out every single game? Is seat price a factor for stadiums that don’t sell out? Should we not adjust for weather? When is an argument well made and when is an excuse an excuse?

But you’ve pointed out something that I think was pointed out in the yesterday’s study: this is a rabbit hole if we choose to pursue it. We can look at how long of an impact a winning season has on attendance, adjust for new stadiums and renovations, beer prices, location, current success, et al. How deep does the rabbit hole go?

"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"

by Justin Bopp on Sep 15, 2009 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Red Sox Top 500 Consecutive Sell Outs

This past June, the Red Sox extended their Major League record to 500 consecutive sold out games:

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2009/06/18/red_sox_notch_500th_consecutive_sellout/

Jon Peltier

by JonPeltier on Sep 15, 2009 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That is bad ass!

"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"

by Justin Bopp on Sep 16, 2009 2:35 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm sorry in advance, and I know I'm biased as a twins fan,

but I get really tired of the AL Central is the worst division in the history of everything comments. I know that’s not what you said, and I can give you the benefit of the doubt an assume that you just meant that the top three teams are all pretty similar and none of them are elite, but I guess I feel like ranting. so here it goes.
The AL Central would be arguably the best division, or at least not the worst division if it was placed in the Senior Circuit. Just look at JinAZ’s power rankings. The last time I checked, If you took an average expecting win% from each team in all 6 divisions, the AL Central would come in third, just ahead of the NL Central (I think). I know a lot of people don’t agree with the league adjustment, but just looking at the interleague records I don’t know how you can (The al has won 56.9% of the games in the last 5 years). Give the AL its due, as a mediocre but not terrible division.

by lookatthosetwins on Sep 15, 2009 7:14 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Alternative Visualizations

Justin -

I like your analysis, and agree with your conclusions, but I find your graphical techniques cumbersome, and the attendance per win unnecessary to the analysis. I’ve drawn some alternative charts on my blog which show the correlation between wins and attendance more clearly:

http://peltiertech.com/WordPress/analysis-of-baseball-attendance-chart-busters/

Jon Peltier

by JonPeltier on Sep 15, 2009 9:35 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I am honored by your analysis, Jon.

That article is simply fantastic. I like your take on using a scatter plot to represent the data, but I would need to adjust for legibility. I agree with your input on the arbitrary Wins/Attendance statistic, with the same concern noted in the first of this series.

I’ve bookmarked your site, and you are one of my new favorite people. I like your straight-forward analysis, but would argue the the need for a chart to be visually pleasing is often greater than it is to be 100% visually accurate, which is why labels and values are added to most charts.

A perfect example of (unnecessary) style vs. substance is your review of the two NPR charts, which are simply visually arresting and beautiful. Your dissection of those charts does little to add to the information given in the original, but loses nearly all of its visual appeal.

Thank you again, Jon. I’ll be visiting.

"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"

by Justin Bopp on Sep 16, 2009 2:49 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Visually Pleasing Graphics

Justin -

I accept your point about making a chart visually pleasing. I’m not imaginative enough to do it well, though I can often spot an example done poorly. I blogged about this in Bad Bar Chart Practices, or Send in the Clowns.

I’ll also agree that the NPR charts were attractive, but they failed badly in sharing their content. Wired Magazine also makes appealing but ineffective charts. Even the New York Times occasionally misses the mark.

I like the content of your charts. I also appreciate your attempts to make them visually appealing, and often it works. The charts here I found a bit dark and bold. Some of your other charts use photos as fill patterns. I don’t do this, and usually it’s done badly. If done sparingly, with lightened colors, it may work (as in your 2009 AL Home Run Chase).

I noticed that you’ve been using PNGs, and it makes the images sharper.

Jon Peltier

by JonPeltier on Sep 16, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

RE: AL East

I’m curious how much the Orioles’ attendance is boosted by fans of other, close teams going to their ballpark to catch a cheaper game. I know a lot of Red Sox fans in New England that can buy plane tickets and tickets to the game in Baltimore for cheaper than getting Sox tickets…

by Randy Booth on Sep 15, 2009 11:17 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Do you then include the number of Orioles fans who don’t go to those games to avoid being harassed by Red Sox fans?

by wickedwitch on Sep 18, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

project

Hey I have a ap stats project and I came across your article. I was wondering if you could provide me with answers to a couple questions I have about your article. How did you get your numbers? Whom did you contact? What sources did you use? Any any other information you can provide would be great. Thanks.

by bigfoot44 on Sep 20, 2009 11:57 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Read the article?

“*Data collected 09/12/09 courtesy of ESPN.”

"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"

by Justin Bopp on Sep 23, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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