Angels Complete Kazmir Trade

by erik on Sep 1, 2009 4:05 PM EDT Comment 16 comments

More photos » by Mary Schwalm - AP

The Kazmir deal has been completed today, with Sean Rodriguez heading to Tampa Bay. By my count, this makes three solid prospects for a player who you could make the argument has little to no surplus value, making this a potential steal for Tampa Bay. Using Sky's Trade Value Calculator, here's my hunch for Kazmir.

Scott Kazmir

Year	Sal (M)	WAR	Val (M)	Net (M)
2009	$2.2	0.5	$2.4	$0.2
2010	$8.0	2.7	$12.3	$4.3
2011	$14.5	2.4	$11.0	-$3.5
2012
FA Picks			$2.5
Total	$24.7	5.6	$28.1	$3.4

2.7 and 2.4 WAR could either be seen as too optimistic or pessimistic, depending on what you believe about Kazmir. I'm also assuming Kazmir's $13.5M club option does not get picked up. Overall, I think I'm being more than fair; for two straight seasons Kaz has been trending in the wrong direction. His strikeouts have gone down, he's allowing more homers and more contact. Kazmir's tRA's the last three seasons have been 3.32, 4.78 and 5.01. There's also the issue of how many innings Kazmir can give the Angels. He's topped 200 innings only once one what's going on a six-year career, and is probably won't throw more than 150 innings this season. That said, he has gotten better as of late. If you think I'm off, then just adjust the math in your head.

The trade does little to hurt the Rays dwindling chances this year as it is. The Rays probably can manage with a four-man rotation the rest of the season. To take Kazmir's place next year, the Rays' have their pick from top prospects Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson; either of which could conceivably pitch as well as Kazmir for the next two seasons, and for the league minimum at that.

The Rays get:

Sean Rodriguez, 24, who has posted some some gaudy numbers for Triple-A Salt Lake - 29 homers and .299/.398/.616 line. Rodriguez is average as a second baseman but could play all over the diamond. He's already played 71 big league games, and didn't qualify for John Sickels Top 20's last year, but was given a B grade the year before. I'd say his surplus value is about $5M.
Alex Torres, 21, is an undersized lefty pitcher that gets ground outs and strikeouts at a good clip. Sickels gave him a C+ grade last year, giving him a surplus value of $2 mil. Maybe he gets bumped to a B this year, but for now I think C is fair enough.
Matt Sweeney, 21, is a big third baseman with decent walk and strikeout rates. He missed all of last year with a knee injury, but is hitting .299/.379/.517 in the hitter friendly Cal League. He didn't make Sickels list last year, he's probably in line for a C grade, giving him a surplus value of $700K.

The Rays free themselves of some much needed payroll and got about the maximum return possible. If Kazmir returns to form, then it'll look good for both sides. I tend to believe that vintage Kazmir won't be coming back, which is why this is quite the coup for the Rays.

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can people

please stop citing john sickels?

he doesn’t look at anything other than their stats. aka, he is no different than you or I.

together, we can over come.

“It’s been too hard living but I’m afraid to die
Cause I don’t know what’s up there beyond the sky
It’s been a long, a long time coming
But I know a change gonna come, oh yes it will "

by firejerrymanuel on Sep 1, 2009 4:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Can you expand on that a bit?

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by Sky Kalkman on Sep 1, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it seems RE: his system rankings

that most of his analysis is a superficial look at the numbers, and not much else.

whenever he cites a ‘scout’, it’s usually something that was just mirrored at BA or BP.

there does not seem to be any original/unique analysis that would put him in the class of somebody like kevin goldstein. most of his analysis seems like drawing conclusions from the numbers.

just look at the summation blurbs for each prospect. this seems to be the consensus i’ve gotten from talking to many people.

by firejerrymanuel on Sep 1, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Except that Sickels makes trips to different leagues throughout the year to scout guys

I might get to 3-4 FSL games a year so he’s different from me :)

Dockoftherays.com

by Jason Collette on Sep 1, 2009 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

in general

i’m talking about the top 20’s he puts out.

by firejerrymanuel on Sep 1, 2009 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

-837283470

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Sep 1, 2009 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

how dare you, sir!

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Sep 1, 2009 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What are you basing Kazmir's future WAR values on?

Just eye-balling his current talent level and decreasing them slowly?

I know the Angels’ AAA park is hitter-friendly. How much?

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by Sky Kalkman on Sep 1, 2009 4:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

first question, yep, just using the old hunch-o-matic. Kazmir’s hard to get a read on. Can’t stay healthy and peripherals are trending down, but since working with Rick Peterson he’s been back on track.

second question, the last three seasons it’s had a run factor of 1.05, singles 1.03, doubles .94, HR 1.16

godfather of futureredbirds.net

by erik on Sep 1, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i think it's important

to not that since his return, his velocity, though still inconsistent, is generally up.

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=4897&position=P&pitch=FA

though it doesn’t seem as though he’s throwing his fastball any more often.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/4897_P_0_20090826.png

i get the sense with kazmir that the peterson tune-up was more of a short term fix. kind of like getting new brakes on an old car. it still has deep seated problems.

by firejerrymanuel on Sep 1, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

godfather of futureredbirds.net

by erik on Sep 1, 2009 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kazmir’s success is actually equated to something so simple. When he gets the first guy out in an inning, he’s near unhittable. When he doesn’t, he’s hittable.

In the 72 innings where he has gotten the first man out, Kazmir has allowed only 15 runs to score. Comes out to 1.88 runs per nine innings.

In the 47 innings where he has allowed the first man to reach, Kazmir has allowed 64 runs to score. Comes out to 12.26 runs per nine innings.

The key for Kazmir is to get the first man out because it’ll keep his pitch count down. He’s already had 40 innings this season where he’s thrown 20 or more pitches. Not good. He’s had more of those innings than he’s had of the 1-2-3 variety (34). 36% of the people he walks come around to score. Not good.

http://twitter.com/FlyByKnite

by FlyByKnight on Sep 1, 2009 6:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What are league average rates for the "first man out" split?

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by Sky Kalkman on Sep 1, 2009 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hard to say. Bill James doesn’t give the averages for it. I can go to each player’s page and look at the number for them, though.

Lincecum has gotten the first man out in an inning 138 times this season. Only 13 runs have scored during that instance. That’s 0.85 runs per nine.

Greinke has gotten the first man out in an inning 131 times this season. Only 22 runs have scored during that instance. That’s 1.51 runs per nine.

Carpenter has done it 113 times. Allowed 13 runs. 1.04 runs per nine.

Wainright has done it 126 times. Allowed 19 runs. 1.36 runs per nine.

Cain has done it 119 times. Allowed 19 runs. 1.44 runs per nine.

Those are the top five leaders in ERA at this point. I could always give you more if you want.

http://twitter.com/FlyByKnite

by FlyByKnight on Sep 1, 2009 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I ask because the huge split for Kazmir only matters if it's significantly wider than for the typical pitcher.

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by Sky Kalkman on Sep 1, 2009 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah his split is pretty crazy. It’s actually one of the widest I’ve come across. I’ve gone through various reports and I haven’t ran across any as drastic as his. The only one that I’ve come across that even comes remotely close to Kazmir is Josh Beckett.

Beckett is at 2.15 runs per nine when retiring the first batter of an inning. But that number balloons to 9.88 runs per nine when he doesn’t.

Still, it’s not as extreme as Kazmir. Kazmir’s deal is all mental. Don’t allow the leadoff man to reach and don’t walk an exorbitant amount of batters. He’ll be perfect if he can just do those two things.

http://twitter.com/FlyByKnite

by FlyByKnight on Sep 1, 2009 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs