BtB Sunday Night Game Thread: Red Sox at Yankees 8/9/09

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 9, 2009 8:20 PM EDT in Game of the Week

I'm getting some serious deja vu here. ESPN's showing a Red Sox/Yankees game? This has happened before, right?

Tonight's game thread is once again for discussing the game or anything else going on in the baseball world. Can we make a deal and spare each other not only from all the NYY-BOS propoganda promoted by ESPN, but also the anti-propoganda promoted by, well, everyone else? Let's just enjoy some baseball played by two very good teams.

Your starting pitchers are two high quality lefties, one ramping up his career and one winding it down.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	tERA	RoS ZiPS FIP
2009 - Jon Lester	cancer survivor	22	22	2	0	0	0	140.0	135	62	59	13	46	158	3.08	3.60

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	tERA	RoS ZiPS FIP
2009 - Andy Pettitte	steroid user	22	22	0	0	0	0	134.1	141	72	65	16	51	99	4.86	4.11

Selective memory note of the week: I told you Jon Lester's ERA would come down after his early season "struggles".

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Hey Sky

How do you figure tERA? Do you just subtract 0.34 from tRA? Or do you multiply by 0.926? Or something else? I was thinking about converting the tRA’s in the power rankings to tERA’s, simply because those are the numbers my brain’s used to evaluating.
-j

My blog: Basement-Dwellers.com
Also: Beyond the Boxscore

by JinAZ on Aug 9, 2009 10:25 AM EDT reply actions

I just subtract .035 for these previews, because it's easier on my brain.

If I were using a spreadsheet, I’d multiply by .92, which is better.

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by Sky Kalkman on Aug 9, 2009 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Question

Is there any web site that I can learn how to understand the numbers and all that comes with them when it comes to baseball because I know there is more to the game then just rooting for your team

Yankees fan

by amench29 on Aug 9, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Not sure if you're kidding or not.

Here are some sites I’d recommend:

http://insidethebook.com/ee (can get intense, but many discussions build concepts up from the ground for you. If you’re stumped, you’re not the only one.)

http://fangraphs.com

http://hardballtimes.com (check out their revamped THT Live blog, too, it’s got shorter applied sabermetric stuff going on.)

http://baseballprospectus.com (most is for pay, but still some good stuff and their Basics series ain’t bad.)

I also highly recommend saber-slanted team-specific blogs, as you get to see saber principles in action and applied to real players and teams. I don’t have time to read a ton, but I enjoy:

http://vivaelbirdos.com (Cardinals)
http://ussmariner.com (Mariners)
http://riveraveblues.com (some might say this blog makes Yankee fans tolerable. Right, Dan?)
http://purplerow.com (Rockies)

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by Sky Kalkman on Aug 9, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

What do you mean tolerable, you jerk?

by Dan Turkenkopf on Aug 9, 2009 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Holy crap Lester

F*** Billy Beane... actually, I kinda like Holliday

by vivaelpujols on Aug 9, 2009 10:55 AM EDT reply actions

Would anyone trade Jon Lester for Johan Santana straight up?

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 9, 2009 12:01 PM EDT reply actions

With contract situation, hell no.

Ignoring contract, good question.

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by Sky Kalkman on Aug 9, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions

if

we only look at WAR, had the Twins traded for the rumored packages of the Sox or even the Yanks back in 07, they look like winners now. instead…..

by RollingWave on Aug 10, 2009 6:48 AM EDT up reply actions

Good point about two very good ball clubs.

I can’t stand either one, but they are very good.

He can get 4, NOT 5.

by Warden11 on Aug 9, 2009 12:19 PM EDT reply actions

If only they would play shorter games.

by Dan Turkenkopf on Aug 9, 2009 12:29 PM EDT reply actions

Derek Holland just polished off a

three-hit, one-walk, seven-strikeout, complete-game performance as the Rangers beat the Angels seven to zero, all on 96 pitches.

I have to admit that I was nervous about the game falling apart towards the end (not due to an abundance of baserunners, as you can see), but I’m just used to watching our pitching staff detonate an atomic bomb on itself.

When I first tuned in (halfway through the fifth), Holland only had three strikeouts and I was concerned about balls in play coming back to haunt us later on in the game (when Holland reportedly started working in his breaking pitches and his strikeouts rose). I started to wonder, at what point do you consider a pitcher’s performance lucky with regard to balls in play? Is there some percentage of strikeouts compared to total outs where a performance goes from lucky to good/great?

by jwiscarson on Aug 9, 2009 6:41 PM EDT reply actions

Joe Morgan just blamed Pedroia for getting hit in the shoulder by Melancon the other night. (The previous pitch had sailed over his head.)

@KenTremendous

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by Sky Kalkman on Aug 9, 2009 8:22 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah, but for most players it would have been belt high

What’s that? Pedroia is short jokes are played out?

by Dan Turkenkopf on Aug 9, 2009 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Nah, keep'em coming.

Need some humor if our offense is going to continue on their campaign to make the new Stadium look pitcher-friendly.

@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation

by bdalebs on Aug 9, 2009 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Damn Yankee fan.

Here’s one you’d like better, from ESPN’s “live chat” which is quickly deteriorating into more of the same but in a different medium:

Is Jeter just the consumate professional? Mr. Consistency. Does he have a shot at 3500 hits?

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by Sky Kalkman on Aug 9, 2009 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions

3500?

I doubt it, although it’s not beyond the realm of possibility.

Let’s say he finishes the season at 2725.

If he plays 5 more seasons (until he’s 40), he’ll need to average 155 hits per season to get there.

It’s hard to know what the future holds for Jeter. He’s going to need to move off shortstop soon.

Arod, Cano and Tex have the rest of the infield locked up for a while. I think the Jeter to CF ship sailed long ago. It’d be interesting to see if Jeter can handle a corner OF position defensively, although I’m not sure his bat will carry it.

I can’t see the Captain wanting to be a full-time DH – plus the Yankees have players better suited for DH than Jeter (just none in the infield).

Does he leave NY? That seems a little hard to imagine too.

So I really have no idea what’s going to happen.

by Dan Turkenkopf on Aug 9, 2009 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Here's the question, though.

Can a Jeter that’s moved off shortstop hit well enough to be a full-time player for five more years?

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Aug 9, 2009 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Not like the MFY management would pull him if he sucked.

@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation

by bdalebs on Aug 9, 2009 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions

I bet they would.

When he’s actually near done, fans will know it and shout it. If you thought Brett Favre’s fans wanted him to hang it up, Jeter’s fans will push it harder. And if the fans are ok with it, management will be ok with it. Of course, they might sign him to a long, bad contract soon and the final years of that could get interesting. Would he possibly retire and forgo money to save face?

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by Sky Kalkman on Aug 9, 2009 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions

the interesting part though

is that his defense have actually “broke out” in the last couple of years.

If he keep playing like this after next year (great bat for SS and actually above average defense) who’s to say he can’t keep it going for a few more year?

by RollingWave on Aug 10, 2009 7:02 AM EDT up reply actions

To be fair

He turned right into the ball. It would not have hit him if he had stood still.

by Tommy Bennett on Aug 9, 2009 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions

And technically you're only supposed to award the HBP if the batter makes a reasonable effort to avoid it.

It’s typically hard to judge this, which is why you rarely see it come up.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Aug 9, 2009 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions

That's right

You almost never see an umpire fail to award the base in these situations. I sorta wish they would.

by Tommy Bennett on Aug 9, 2009 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions

You want to volunteer...

to tell the guy holding what could very easily become a violent weapon that he just took a 90+MPH fastball in the middle of his back for no good reason?

@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation

by bdalebs on Aug 9, 2009 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Hmm...

Can’t exactly tell if he thought the ball was going to hit him anyway.

@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation

by bdalebs on Aug 9, 2009 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions

So, how 'bout that Lester?

F*** Billy Beane... actually, I kinda like Holliday

by vivaelpujols on Aug 9, 2009 10:08 PM EDT reply actions

shoulda

traded him for Santana.

of course, I’m a Yankee fan :P

by RollingWave on Aug 10, 2009 7:03 AM EDT up reply actions

OT

Does anyone know a good data organizing software that can handle a little more than Excel? I am doing some stuff with like 130,000 rows of data, and my poor Excel couldn’t handle it and keeps quitting out on me.

F*** Billy Beane... actually, I kinda like Holliday

by vivaelpujols on Aug 9, 2009 10:37 PM EDT reply actions

You need a database

Access, which you may already have, or MySQL, which is free but not quite as accessible

by Harry Pavlidis on Aug 9, 2009 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions

I mean for making graphs

Sorry if I wasn’t clear. I have an SQL already which is where I am getting the data from.

F*** Billy Beane... actually, I kinda like Holliday

by vivaelpujols on Aug 9, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions

R

by Harry Pavlidis on Aug 9, 2009 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Crap

I have no idea how to use that, I was hoping someone else could suggest an alternative.

F*** Billy Beane... actually, I kinda like Holliday

by vivaelpujols on Aug 9, 2009 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions

by bdalebs on Aug 9, 2009 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Jesus, this is a good game

F*** Billy Beane... actually, I kinda like Holliday

by vivaelpujols on Aug 9, 2009 10:52 PM EDT reply actions

Unless you're someone who enjoys the art of schadenfreude...

I’d recommend NOT going on OTM now.

@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation

by bdalebs on Aug 9, 2009 11:35 PM EDT reply actions

Hey I'm new to BTB

1. You guys are awesome!

2. Sabermetrics = Life

3. I love making charts and would like to submit my creations for you guys to see and comment on. Is that possible? My buddy and I run a Sabermetrics/Royals Criticism site called Gritty&Clutch.

Here’s an example of our work—let me know what you think and how I can post more to this site. http://grittyandclutch.blogspot.com/2009/08/war-vs-wins-american-league-study.html

by Justin Bopp on Aug 10, 2009 12:01 AM EDT reply actions