Every time I think about Rios and his fielding ability, all I can think about is the time in 2005 when he gunned down Ichiro tagging from third on a fly ball at the warning track. The single best outfield assist I have ever seen.

I wish I could find a video of that. Darn you, MLBAM.

I have Rios on my fantasy squad so this does interest me a ton.

Rios should cost something and as a sox fan I was baffled when we traded for Peavy. Do you happen to know who claimed him on waivers?

If Ricciardi decides to let him go, can Rios block it?

NYM

Apparently the guys on MASN basically said it was the White Sox (got that from a different forum, so take it with a grain of salt) and Buster Olney said the same on BB Tonight. Since that’s an ESPN reporter, I’d take that with a barrel of salt.

I have to agree with fletch that if Riccardi decides to let Rios go for nothing than that decision is more than defensible if not good. While the projected WAR might be a tad on the conservative side, the chance of collapse is enough to make that a fair expected value. The problem with Rios is his value for the Jays is probably lower than that of other teams. Both Vernon Wells and Aaron Hill contracts run concurrently with Rios’ and while Wells might be a sunk cost there is still an operating budget that the Blue Jays have to work within.

From 2001 to 2009 the Blue Jays 25 man roster salaries have ran from 45 to 97 million dollars. Figuring for some sort of inflation I think that a reasonable payroll for a competing Blue Jays to be around 80 million dollars come 2012. That year Wells will make 21 million, Rios makes 12 million, and Hill makes 8 million (club option) That right there would be 50% of their budget. Estimating the WAR for those three players to be 1.5, 2.8, 3.5; or about six million a win. This means that the other 22 players will need to account for 30 or so WAR to be competitive.

I understand this isn’t the best way to look at this scientifically, but in that division the Blue Jays need better “bargains” then that if they want to have a chance at the post season; and the risk of Rios collapsing is not worth 1.7 million dollars a year in excess value.

There are two problems in letting Rios go for nothing. First is the psychological impact on the fanbase leading to poor attendance and fan support which is pretty hard to estimate prior to the dumping but something Blue Jays management would have to consider. But secondly is that the Blue Jays really don’t have a lot of organizational outfield depth. UZR doesn’t have enough innings to say whether Snider can handle right and Lind left but scouting reports suggest you probably don’t want both of them out there. I don’t have an intimate knowledge of the Blue Jays system but maybe Dellucci could fill in for the rest of the year or they go get a Jeff Salazar from Pittsburg kind of guy but for the near-mid future it looks pretty bleak which could make Riccardi pause on letting the claim go through uncontested.

The simplest solution would be to get a corner outfielder or centerfielder from the claiming team. But in the end I think that it is worth the backlash of the fans to let Rios move on to somewhere else and if he can get a little back in return then all the better

but we pick up his whole contract. Mamma Mia. We finally have a legit centerfielder since Aaron Rowand

Riccardi did not trade Halladay (“We’re going to try and win next year”) but opted to waive Rios for nothing in return.

…

wat

If Rios really has collapsed having both he and Wells signed for so much for so long would make it almost impossible to compete for the next 4 to five years, that risk is worth getting rid of even if things go the other way and Rios bounces back. I also think that Sky’s speculation about the Jays knowing something the White Sox don’t is interesting. It seems to me that historically players given up for free through waivers have been pretty bad historically for the claiming team

3 year weighted average on WAR is around 3.6.

(29) 2010: 3.6
(30) 2011: 3.6
(31) 2012: 3.3
(32) 2013: 3.0
(33) 2014: 2.6
(34) 2015: 2.1

Not sure how the economy will play out, but let’s call it $5M per WAR (you can make your own adjustment here).

Total value over remainder of contract then comes to… $91M over next 6 years. Remaining amount owed is $72.2M over those same 6 years.

So unless you think 2009 is his new benchmark in value or that the economy will continue in the tank and that salaries will remain low this is not a particularly good deal for the Blue Jays.

vr, Xei

The Jays supposedly didn’t trade Roy Halladay for prospects that were not quite as good as what they were seeking under the assumption that they were going to go for it next year w/ Halladay under contract. Now they get rid of the guy who is one of their best position players and get nothing in return? Granted, they get some salary relief but how does this help them compete in 2010? It doesn’t. Therefore, now they have to trade Halladay in the offseason, don’t they? WTF is Ricciardi doing?

This now makes four guys on my fantasy squad who have changed teams within the last two weeks. Rolen, Peavy, Martinez, and, now, Rios.

One of the biggest complaints about Wells’ albatross contract is that he was taking up extension money for Halladay.

Both are coming off down years and are seen as impact players earning a bit below free agent salaries. However…

• Peavy’s overrated and is actually not a deal after 2009.
• Rios was free to acquire, while Peavy cost some decent, cheap prospects.
• Rios is a position player, less risky than a pitcher long term.
• While you can never have too much starting pitching, CF is a bigger hole for the White Sox.