BtB Power Rankings: Through Tuesday, August 4th 2009

Welcome to our weekly ranking of all the MLB teams!  In this ranking, we use aggregate team hitting, pitching, and fielding statistics--not team wins, losses, runs scored, or runs allowed--to evaluate the performance of teams to date.  You can think of the estimated winning percentage (eW%) below as how we'd expect teams to fall out if we threw teams with these aggregate statistics into one big league and let them battle it out for thousands of games.

The table is sortable if you click in the header.  All data are park-adjusted when possible.  A legend is below the table, followed by commentary. There is also a table comparing actual vs. expected run scored and run allowed totals, as well as actual vs. expected winning percentages.

BtB Power Rankings

Rank Chg Team wOBA eRS tRA tRns Fld eRA eW%lg LgAdj eW%
1 +1 TB 0.352 586 4.67 493 20.2 473 0.603 12.7 0.625
2 -1 NYA 0.362 620 4.80 505 0.7 504 0.602 12.7 0.624
3 0 BOS 0.341 537 4.09 426 -30.5 457 0.577 12.6 0.601
4 0 LAN 0.341 558 4.18 453 13.7 439 0.614 -12.7 0.590
5 0 TOR 0.332 515 4.51 480 9.3 471 0.543 12.7 0.567
6 0 CHA 0.324 470 4.05 424 -10.9 435 0.537 12.8 0.563
7 0 COL 0.327 481 3.81 397 -2.1 399 0.586 -12.7 0.559
8 +1 LAA 0.351 566 5.16 531 -0.2 531 0.531 12.4 0.553
9 -1 TEX 0.329 477 4.78 498 30.4 467 0.509 12.4 0.535
10 0 PHI 0.340 533 4.82 504 13.4 491 0.541 -12.4 0.517
11 +1 CLE 0.340 546 5.16 540 -17.1 557 0.490 12.7 0.513
12 -1 ATL 0.325 486 4.11 437 -11.2 449 0.538 -12.7 0.512
13 0 MIN 0.334 516 4.89 515 -15.7 531 0.486 12.7 0.510
14 0 DET 0.325 466 4.83 500 16.7 483 0.483 12.4 0.508
15 0 ARI 0.320 470 4.13 444 6.6 437 0.533 -12.7 0.507
16 +1 CHN 0.318 457 4.28 452 6.3 446 0.511 -12.4 0.485
17 -1 OAK 0.315 441 4.50 475 -7.2 482 0.458 12.6 0.484
18 0 BAL 0.327 482 4.92 511 -22.4 533 0.451 12.6 0.475
19 0 STL 0.324 479 4.46 480 -0.7 480 0.498 -13.1 0.472
20 0 SEA 0.316 437 5.05 531 35.0 496 0.441 12.7 0.466
21 +3 FLA 0.326 483 4.68 494 -13.6 507 0.476 -12.7 0.452
22 +4 SF 0.303 391 4.17 440 29.8 410 0.479 -12.7 0.450
23 -2 KC 0.309 410 4.38 453 -32.6 486 0.422 12.6 0.447
24 -2 MIL 0.331 502 5.25 549 13.4 535 0.469 -12.7 0.445
25 +2 NYN 0.324 470 4.78 500 -19.2 519 0.453 -12.6 0.428
26 -3 PIT 0.317 439 4.93 510 23.0 487 0.451 -12.6 0.426
27 +1 WAS 0.331 509 5.24 545 -22.6 568 0.446 -12.7 0.423
28 -3 HOU 0.321 463 4.78 507 -8.8 516 0.448 -12.7 0.423
29 +1 SD 0.316 445 5.04 541 -14.8 556 0.394 -12.8 0.371
30 -1 CIN 0.302 397 5.01 530 11.1 519 0.377 -12.6 0.353

Offense = wOBA (park-corrected), eRS (estimated runs scored; wRC from FanGraphs, then park adjusted)
Pitching = tRA and tRns are a home-brew version of Graham MacAree's statistic.
Fielding = Fld: average of bUZR (from FanGraphs) and THT's batted balls statistic (converted to runs)
eRA (estimated runs allowed) = Pitching - Fielding
eW%lg = estimated winning percentage within the specific league (AL or NL)
LgAdj = league adjustment (bonus to AL teams, penalty to NL teams, because the AL has superior level of play)
eW% = estimated winning percentage if all teams were in one league (after league adjustment)
Methods provided in more detail in the first post in this series

Team Leaders (asterisks indicate teams improving in specific ranking):

American League
Offense (wOBA): Yankees, Rays, Angels
Pitching (tRA): White Sox*, Red Sox, Royals
Fielding (Fld): Mariners*, Rangers, Rays

National League
Offense (wOBA): Dodgers*, Phillies, Nationals*
Pitching (tRA): Rockies, Braves, Diamondbacks
Fielding (Fld): Giants*, Pirates, Dodgers*

"On Paper" Playoff Leaders (asterisks indicate new leaders):

American League: E=Rays*, C=White Sox, W=Angels*, WC=Yankees
National League: E=Phillies, C=Cubs, W=Dodgers, WC=Rockies

This Week's Movers:

Lest anyone (yet again) accuse me of methodological bias--my Reds, for the first time this year, rank last in these power rankings.  It's been absolute hell.  Before tonight's win, they'd won once in the prior 15 games.  They haven't won back to back games since June 1 & 2.  The losses haven't all been blowouts, but when you're scoring 3.1 runs per game, it doesn't take much to beat you.  Worst wOBA in the league at 0.302.  tRA is 12th in the 16-team league.  The fielding has still been good--and the Rolen trade will help improve it moving forward--but while fielding is important, you can't get by on that alone.  It's yet another sucky season.  I'm tired of it.

The Marlins and Giants are on nice litte tears, and it shows here as well.  The Rockies still are ranked well above the Giants, but are separated by just a half-game in reality.  Aside from that, not much movement--except, of course, that the Yankees were unseated by the Rays after just one day.  As I'm writing this, the Rays are up 6-4 in the 8th on the Red Sox in what is obviously a critical game.  And the Angels are starting to open up some breathing room on the Rangers...  Can they recover?

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