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"Every year, we've seen one or maybe two teams tear down their roster the way that the Padres have," one high-ranking official said. "But now we're looking at four or five in one year. And teams are doing it [breaking down a roster] more quickly than they used to, which hurts their chances for sustained success. I think the days of the small-market teams going to the playoffs four out of five years are over, unless something changes."

Here are the top eight MLB teams in payroll:

1. Yankees: $206 million
2. Mets: $139 million
3. Cubs: $138 million
4. Tigers: $130 million
5. Phillies: $128 million
6. Red Sox: $123 million
7. Angels: $117 million
8. Dodgers: $109 million

Of those eight teams, seven would qualify for the postseason if the playoffs were to begin today. (The Cubs lead the NL Central by mere percentage points.) The Mets are the only team on this list that would not qualify."

Sky: Personally, I think the huge payroll disparity in baseball is unfair. Also unfair is which teams receive revenue sharing and what they do/don't do with it. There are many small payroll teams who don't need to spend quite that little (Marlins) and many small payroll teams who use their money poorly (Royals). Successful teams with small payrolls should be the ones to receive help, not every small payroll team. And we should be using some measure of revenue potential instead of payroll to counter the cheapskate owners and reward a rich owner who buys a small market team.

The list of large payroll teams and how successful they are also points out just how easy it can be to put together a good team if you have money. To think any of those eight front offices are good just because of success is short sighted. Give the Rays, Indians, A's, or Brewers $125M and they'd win 95+ games easily. The Yankees should be winning 105 games every year with their obscene payroll. Given the current rules, I don't fault them for spending that much, but I do fault them for spending that much that inefficiently.

I'll also point out that there's a correlation/causation issue at play here. Some of these teams, like the Phillies, Angels, and Dodgers, wouldn't be spending this much money if they weren't this good. If/when they come down out of their current success cycle, payroll will drop as well, as they get things in line for the next charge.

Here's one final thought, related to the quote from Olney above. Even if the Padres could afford Jake Peavy, they made the right move by trading him, as he's going to earn what's he worth on the free agent market going forward. Sure, rich teams can afford luxuries like that, but even they would be better served to make deals like that in many cases. Great players do not equal success. Good players at good prices equal success.

over 2 years ago Limes_125_tiny Sky Kalkman 10 comments 0 recs  | 

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Disagree with "Yankees should win 105 games, A's etc. would win 95games...

I think you are overestimating the value of money in correlation to marginal wins. I would think that correlation is pretty much a logarithm function and:

a) The resources on which you can spend the money is limited , pretty much only free agents (who get often overrated/overpaid due to negotiating leverage) and draft/international free agents, which are always tricky and somewhat lucky.
b) There is a huge amount of variance in baseball, since 162 games, 700PAs or 200IP are not exactly big statistical samples. So when Yankees, Mets, Cubs etc. spend 30m on FAs, they can easily end with just few wins of added value over replacement players due to bad luck, injuries or underperformance. Those are sunk costs and cant be effectively replaced. When A’s field Barton, Buck, Sweeney or any other young guy and he gets injured and underperforms, they can easily replace him, while the upside is enormous.

In the end, I think it’s much easier to have a one 90win season out of 5 with a 50mil payroll than having 4 out 5 90win seasons with 100-130mil payroll, because the biggest value lays in homegrown cheap and controlled talent, not the additional FA signings.

The only team in baseball that seems to understand this very well and is big market is Boston, spending their money on cheap talent and future.

My conclusion – the most effective way to spend money for both big and small market teams is drafting, scouting and signing international FAs – but those are largely affected by variance, making it never guaranteed for a big market team to always ‘buy’ its way to wins and they are also amde cheaper and better value for teams that finish at the bottom. So in the end, we cant expect a team that spends 120+m every year to contend every year in my opinion.

by viktor06 on Aug 4, 2009 11:23 AM EDT reply actions  

The Tigers, technically, do belong on that list. But, they really played with a salary of about $50 million this year. Sheffield, Willis, Bonderman, Robertson and Guillen are making a combined $63 million from them and have barely contributed to the team this season. Magglio Ordonez is making $18 million and he is strictly a platoon player and has been a negative player for the Tigers. That is roughly $80 million that has not contributed positively to a division leading team.

http://www.motor-citysports.blogspot.com

by Scottwood on Aug 4, 2009 12:08 PM EDT reply actions  

Name a single bad decision the Royals have made!

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Aug 4, 2009 12:14 PM EDT reply actions  

Today? In the last hour?

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman on Aug 4, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

I ran across this quote via a quote of a quote (ties in nicely to the "fair use" FanShot discussion):
Snark aside, the larger point is that the trading of established stars for unproven youngsters is not the hallmark of a bad baseball organization. What does identify a bad organization is the refusal to acknowledge shortcomings and a failure to take corrective action.

That’s from Geoff Young, Smart Guy <a href=“http:// ”http://anotherpadresblog.wordpress.com/2009/08/05/quick-hits-85/" target="_blank">http://anotherpadresblog.wordpress.com/2009/08/05/quick-hits-85/" >via APB. Free agents are overpaid. There’s a demand, because teams have holes, but there are much more efficient ways to spend money. Therefore, as Geoff points outs, trading high-paid stars like Peavy might not immediately please fans, but it’s the smart move.

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 5, 2009 10:13 AM EDT reply actions  

let's go mets

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Aug 5, 2009 7:13 PM EDT reply actions  

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