Walk off Triple's. How often?

by OmahaHi on Aug 4, 2009 2:36 AM EDT

The A's Rajai Davis hit a walk-off triple in the bottom of the ninth tonight against Texas to win the game 3-2. There were runners at First and Second. Once the second runner scores, the game is over and there is no reason for the official scorer to award third base. I suppose with Davis's speed he could have been to third when the second run scored, but the replays only show he was near it.

I don't know if I have ever seen that ruled anything but a double before on a game I was watching but I'm sure it happens a small amount of times. It made me wonder just how rare that is. Does a walk-off double happen 100x more often than a walk-off triple? Does anyone have a stat site that would keep track of what type of walk-off hits happened? For that manner game ending walks, error's, balks etc. I would think one of the rarest of all outcomes might be stealing home.

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This would be an awesome site if it can be found or created.

Creates an argument against using human scorers, since they could credit a guy with a triple when not needed. If this has happened before, I wonder how badly it’s damaged stats.
Having a record of how every game ended would also help with a project another user on OTM wants to do – namely figuring out if Cano ends more MFY games than anyone else.

Although, I have to wonder: WTF was Davis thinking? Advancing further gave his team no more advantage than staying on first, and could have actually hurt his team if he was thrown out before the winning run scored, if there was already two outs (was there?). Or was he possibly near third base when the cameras and scorer looked over to him, after having rounded first, realized that the winning run would score, and headed towards his team’s dugout?

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by bdalebs on Aug 4, 2009 3:20 AM EDT reply actions

2 outs. there was no possible advantage to not stoping on second, not first, as he didn't know if the guy on 1st would score, so 2nd and 3rd is better than 1st and 3rd.

your right that it is kind of a bonehead play as the only other possible advantage I could think of and its a stretch, is that he could draw the throw to 3rd and be safe, that would have gone home, saving an out by a slower runner at the plate. Now that you point out that’s its bad play, It might be as hi as 250/ 500-1, walk off doubles to walk-off triples.

He was running hard most of the way to third, then let up the last 10 feet. He’s super fast so It’s possible he made it there at the same time as the runner scored as the camera was on him, not the runner scoring.

"Gratuitous gesticulating together sounds even better"

by OmahaHi on Aug 4, 2009 3:52 AM EDT up reply actions

It was a borderline double...

until the ball took a funny hop and Cruz turned his ankle. I think it was scored a triple because had no one been on base, Davis would have easily reached third. He never stopped or slowed around second base.

It was an awful thing to watch… your team losing a game on a pinch-hit, 2-run triple against your closer… and being afraid that your 25-HR RF is about to go on the DL.

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by NoNameOnCard on Aug 4, 2009 5:21 AM EDT up reply actions

... but Feliz was freaking awesome.

So there’s that.

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by NoNameOnCard on Aug 4, 2009 5:21 AM EDT up reply actions

Doesn't fix a terrible loss..

What an awful way to end the night.

by Trickman on Aug 4, 2009 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions

I think it was scored a triple because had no one been on base, Davis would have easily reached third.

I get what you’re saying but bases loaded, walk-off gappers are considered singles if the situation is a tied game. I’m sure most of those guys could have easily gotten to second base and, in some cases, as far as third base. I was very shocked to actually learn that Davis was credited with a triple. It’s certainly one of the rarest game-winners in recent memory. Unless Davis had already touched third before the winning run had scored, it should be ruled a double. I see no other reason as to why it shouldn’t be ruled as such.

by FlyByKnight on Aug 4, 2009 6:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Exactly.

Weird that the camera was on Davis when the winning run scored though.

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by bdalebs on Aug 4, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, the winning run was on first to start the play...

So, it’s not like there was an instant “game over.” I’ve routinely seen doubles awarded to guys who hit balls into gaps with the winning run on second base. I don’t think this scoring decision is that different.

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by NoNameOnCard on Aug 4, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions

2 strikes.also.

and I guess it dose not really matter if he’s on first or second if the guy dose not score and is on third except that the out on a ground ball to the left side would be easier to get at second rather than throwing it across to first.

"Gratuitous gesticulating together sounds even better"

by OmahaHi on Aug 4, 2009 4:02 AM EDT reply actions

A walk-off triple, in reality, cannot really occur. It’s nearly impossible for a batter to run 270 feet, after swinging a bat, faster than a runner on first can run 265 feet (after leadoff) unless the runner on first is slow as hell and doesn’t touch home before the batter touches third. However, the runner on first that’s running towards home would be thrown out 99.9% of the time anyways. The official scorer will always rule that a walk-off double. I do not see how a walk-off triple can truly happen. Or maybe it could and it’s 1:07 am and I have no clue what I’m talking about therefore I’m missing something.

by FlyByKnight on Aug 4, 2009 4:08 AM EDT reply actions

It’s defiantly very odd, but a fast runner at home running 270 feet could easily get to third faster than an even average speed runner gets first to home. 5-10 feet isn’t a whole lot to make up out of 270. I don’t know that this is in fact what happened, but it wouldn’t be nearly impossible. There wasn’t a play at home or anywhere else.

I guess the next question is if there was a truly slow runner at first, and Davis had went for an inside the park HR, and touched home plate a fraction of a second after the runner from 1st did what would the official scorer do?

"Gratuitous gesticulating together sounds even better"

by OmahaHi on Aug 4, 2009 4:47 AM EDT up reply actions

Walkoff triples have happened 118 times in the Retrosheet era

Singles – 4813
Doubles – 781
Homers – 2710

by Dan Turkenkopf on Aug 4, 2009 8:57 PM EDT reply actions

nice. thank you.

how did you navigate and find that information on Retrosheet?

"Gratuitous gesticulating together sounds even better"

by OmahaHi on Aug 4, 2009 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Here's my query

select count(e.gameid), eventtype
from
retrosheet.events e
join
(select gameid, max(eventnumber) as last_event from retrosheet.events group by gameid) a
on e.gameid = a.gameid and e.eventnumber = a.last_event
where eventtype in (20,21,22,23) and battingteam = 1
and exists (select * from retrosheet.games g where e.gameid = g.gameid and g.homefinalscore > g.visfinalscore)
group by eventtype

My events table is a completely flat structure of all the possible fields in the base Retrosheet event files (not the Chadwick ones). My games table is simply gameid, home team score, visitor team score.

I’ll explain the query in more detail tonight if anyone is interested.

by Dan Turkenkopf on Aug 5, 2009 7:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Might this catch partial games which went to a rain during the home half of an inning and were never resumed?

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by Sky Kalkman on Aug 5, 2009 8:09 AM EDT up reply actions

You mean both of the games each year?

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by Jeff Zimmerman on Aug 5, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Perhaps..

rerunning it with an additional criteria of inning >= 9

Singles: 4796
Doubles: 720
Triples: 116
Homers: 2709

Doubles dropped a surprising amount.

by Dan Turkenkopf on Aug 5, 2009 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't know how anyone does that

its really hard to go around that website

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by The_Fan on Aug 9, 2009 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions

The Web site is only the place to download the data, to get some info on how it's set up, and to read some of their own studies

To actually do any analysis, you need to download the data yourself and play with it (most likely using a database and SQL).

Do a search for Chadwick and Retrosheet if you’re interested.

by Dan Turkenkopf on Aug 10, 2009 8:28 AM EDT up reply actions

ok great

thanks for the help

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by The_Fan on Aug 10, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions

retrosheet has alot of stats

There should be some kind of exception rule, like if the outfield is in, and someone hits the winning hit to the warning track on a fly and the runner on third scores, he sould be credited with moer than a single

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by The_Fan on Aug 9, 2009 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions

% of walk-off hits

triples……..1%
doubles….9%
HR…………32%
singles…..57%

"Gratuitous gesticulating together sounds even better"

by OmahaHi on Aug 4, 2009 10:51 PM EDT reply actions

thanks

for the percents, clears up the whole fanpost

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by The_Fan on Aug 9, 2009 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions

What about...

Walk-off walks? I’ll guess there weren’t any walk-off IBBs, that’d probably be considered poor strategy by the losing teams’ manager. Walk-off SB, HBP, SF, WP, PB?

by erosen on Aug 6, 2009 11:46 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

I’ll guess there weren’t any walk-off IBBs, that’d probably be considered poor strategy by the losing teams’ manager

There’s that

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by vivaelpujols on Aug 6, 2009 8:30 PM EDT up reply actions

397 walk-off walks

Passed Ball: 23
Hit By Pitch: 16
Errors: 269
Stolen Bases: 21 (although I wouldn’t be surprised if that was a steal and an error)
Wild Pitches: 144

I don’t have a good count of sac flies, but there were 585 that were walk-off outs. I’d assume most of those are sacrifice flies.

And there were 5 walk-off strikeouts, probably because the ball got away. I might want to look into those some more.

by Dan Turkenkopf on Aug 6, 2009 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Any walk-off SBs of home?

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by Sky Kalkman on Aug 6, 2009 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions

21 SB of home, but not sure if any were a steal and an error. wouldn't that be a walk-off error with the steal not counted if it was the scoring player?

If they stole 3rd for instance and the ball got away at third, and the runner scored, that would be a steal of 3rd and an error to score.

Maybe a delayed steal from where there was an error on the throw to second but on the throw to second the player from third broke and was credited with a steal as well as the error on the throw being charged?

Hit by Pitch walk off %- .002

What about walk-off unassisted triple-plays in the top of the ninth?

"Gratuitous gesticulating together sounds even better"

by OmahaHi on Aug 7, 2009 7:46 AM EDT up reply actions