FanPost

Mark Reynolds: Feast or Famine .. Feast!

I was having an AIM conversation with a friend of mine from another forum. I was looking at random statistics and we were discussing ridiculous things, like usual, and we came across Mark Reynolds. Yes, Mark Reynolds was a topic for us. A stupid topic, but a topic nonetheless. It's widely known that I give Ryan Howard a heap of crap for being a mammoth black hole of offense outside of striking out and hitting home runs. I updated a thread about the pace Howard was on for his career when it comes to strikeouts. Well, Reynolds, the Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman, might have him in spades.

Mark Reynolds: 386 AB, 32 HR, 144 K

Mark Reynolds is either striking out or hitting the ball out of the yard in 45.6% of his at-bats this season. That is an alarming rate. Ryan Howard is close, but not close enough, at 40.0% this year. There's actually more to it, though. Reynolds is the better player between the two this season even despite his strikeout rate. It's not even a question. Mark Reynolds has a .402 wOBA this season. For a guy who strikes out as much as he does, that's insane. His BABiP this year is .364, which is astronomical for a power hitter that strikes out a ton and for a guy who possesses only a 15.5% Line Drive rate. He actually has an OPS that is approaching .960 this year. He is sporting a ridiculous 27.5% HR/FB rate in 2009. He's making contact on only 63.6% of pitches this season. The league average is 80.7% in 2009. He's already been worth 26.7 wRAA and 3.4 WAR this year. His ISO rating is .298 this year. How good is that? It's third best ... in the Majors this season behind Albert Pujols and Raul Ibanez.



That's not a misprint. Reynolds is on pace to hit 49 home runs, drive in 113 runs, score 110 runs, steal 29 bases, and strikeout 222 times. Would you consider Mark Reynolds a top player in this league considering that he plays solid defense, hits for raw power, drives in a ton of runs, can steal nearly 30 bases in a season, and has a near .960 OPS on the year while playing a crucial position such as third base? I don't see how you couldn't consider him one of the better players in this league outside of the fact that he does strikeout at an amazingly alarming rate. If this projection holds up, Mark Reynolds will see 45% of his at-bats result in either a strikeout or a home run. In fact, 51.5% of his at-bats would result in either a strikeout or an extra base hit. That's insane.


Is this guy a top player in baseball?

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