Mark Reynolds: Feast or Famine .. Feast!
by FlyByKnight on Aug 3, 2009 9:31 PM EDT
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PrintI was having an AIM conversation with a friend of mine from another forum. I was looking at random statistics and we were discussing ridiculous things, like usual, and we came across Mark Reynolds. Yes, Mark Reynolds was a topic for us. A stupid topic, but a topic nonetheless. It's widely known that I give Ryan Howard a heap of crap for being a mammoth black hole of offense outside of striking out and hitting home runs. I updated a thread about the pace Howard was on for his career when it comes to strikeouts. Well, Reynolds, the Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman, might have him in spades.
Mark Reynolds: 386 AB, 32 HR, 144 K
Mark Reynolds is either striking out or hitting the ball out of the yard in 45.6% of his at-bats this season. That is an alarming rate. Ryan Howard is close, but not close enough, at 40.0% this year. There's actually more to it, though. Reynolds is the better player between the two this season even despite his strikeout rate. It's not even a question. Mark Reynolds has a .402 wOBA this season. For a guy who strikes out as much as he does, that's insane. His BABiP this year is .364, which is astronomical for a power hitter that strikes out a ton and for a guy who possesses only a 15.5% Line Drive rate. He actually has an OPS that is approaching .960 this year. He is sporting a ridiculous 27.5% HR/FB rate in 2009. He's making contact on only 63.6% of pitches this season. The league average is 80.7% in 2009. He's already been worth 26.7 wRAA and 3.4 WAR this year. His ISO rating is .298 this year. How good is that? It's third best ... in the Majors this season behind Albert Pujols and Raul Ibanez.
That's not a misprint. Reynolds is on pace to hit 49 home runs, drive in 113 runs, score 110 runs, steal 29 bases, and strikeout 222 times. Would you consider Mark Reynolds a top player in this league considering that he plays solid defense, hits for raw power, drives in a ton of runs, can steal nearly 30 bases in a season, and has a near .960 OPS on the year while playing a crucial position such as third base? I don't see how you couldn't consider him one of the better players in this league outside of the fact that he does strikeout at an amazingly alarming rate. If this projection holds up, Mark Reynolds will see 45% of his at-bats result in either a strikeout or a home run. In fact, 51.5% of his at-bats would result in either a strikeout or an extra base hit. That's insane.
Is this guy a top player in baseball?
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Wow, good post.
Weird how strikeouts can eradicate memory of other great offensive production. Definitely not someone I would have been checking up on when considering the best players in baseball. Rec’d.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
The only reason I even looked up Reynolds was because I was watching MLB Network and saw he had two home runs along with a spectacular defensive play tonight. If I didn’t hear that he had 32 home runs this season, I wouldn’t have given Reynolds a second thought.
He hit an absolute bomb yesterday.
I think it landed about 10 rows up in the second deck of of citi field in left CENTER. He has some kind of power.
Ah, comparing anecdotes to data.
Always good to see if you have good luck as a viewer – like tuning to ESPNEWS 30 seconds before they cut to live feed of what ended up being Bonds’ 756 AB. :)
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
Unfortunately...
this, and my teams’ sudden ability to win championships now*, is the extent of my luck.
*: Seriously, look at this:
- Gators: first football championship with 3.5 years of me being born (cliche: literally born a Gator, no choice), and are winning a ton now that I’ve become a sports geek
- Red Sox: started following b/c of Wakefield in 1997, started actively rooting for them during non-Wake starts around 2002-ish, then they win 2 WS within 4 years after not having won in 86 years.
- Bears: replace Wake with Rexy, change the years to 2003 and 2007. Haven’t won anything since “fan-ship,” but they were reigning NFC Champs the first year and are looking pretty good this year. Thanks to Chris Leak for being a Bear long enough for me to decide to become a fan of the Bears.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
I’m a Steelers, Angels, Ducks, and Clippers fan. The first three have won titles this decade. The Clippers, well, will not see a title for a considerable amount of time … if ever.
Haha.
At least most of you teams are in the same area – the bandwagon accusations are a lot easier to make when the accused’s teams are good and not geographically related at all.
Weird to have only one Pittsburgh team though – usually some of the most geographically consistent fans. Also some of the most loyal too – I’m not sure if I am in my grandparents’ will because I chose my dad’s team over my mom’s. :\
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
I became a Steelers fan because of my father. He’s originally from New York and after he got out of Vietnam, he became a fan of the Steelers due to their hardnosed mentality and how they were truly America’s Team.
kind of the same story as me
I always followed baseball thorugh;y but then got facinated with Paul Konerko and started looking more into my already favorite sox. Then the Sox win world Series BAM.
Same exact story with bears. Except I’ve always followed the team a little mroe.
Carlos Guillen, the Latino Nick Punto
Reynolds is already 3-4 tonight with a RBI. He continues his hot hitting.
Coming into tonight, Reynolds was batting .387/.457/.855 during his last 70 plate appearances. Over that span, he also had eight home runs, eleven runs batted in, sixteen runs scored, and five doubles while also stealing four bases. The man is on a proverbial tear right now and it’s going unnoticed.
If only he were on a good team, he might – and I say might because of Pujols and Utley – have a chance at being the MVP this season based on the fact that he is on pace to potentially become the first ever 50(HR)-30(SB) player in MLB history.
Still not close to Jack Cust's 2007 mark of 58.4% of plate appearances ending without a ball put in play
Reynolds is at a comparative piker’s rate of 51.4%.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Great Post
My fantasy dynasty team has already fallen out of contention and im surprised no one has offered me a trade for him.
Carlos Guillen, the Latino Nick Punto
Reynolds
I have been a fan of his for a while now, drafted him in another forum I go ons annul gm baseball draft and I can see him doing 50 and 30.
I don't think it negates the value generated this season
But it does make it less likely he’ll repeat this season.
With those projected stats, Reynolds will have a .453 BACON (batting average on contact) with a .954 slugging on contact. That’s pretty much unsustainable.
by Dan Turkenkopf on Aug 17, 2009 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions
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