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NL MVP Thoughts

The trade deadline has come and gone, the pennant races are just starting to heat up, and we are entering the home stretch of the 2009 MLB season.

Every week or so I like to look at numbers and players to see who is doing well, making little All Star teams, MVP choices/tallies along with Cy Young and ROY races.

This years clear cut, run away winner (as of right now) for the NL MVP award is Albert Pujols, again.  He is leading the leage in HR, he is one off the pace in RBI, and at one point was a serious Triple Crown Threat.  Most importantly, though, is that his team is currently in first place in the NL Central. 

I personally believe that the MVP should come from a playoff team, or at least playoff contending team.  After that would come teams that finish above .500, and then everything else after that.

Living in Milwaukee, I am bombarded by Brewer loving media, and a lot has been made about Prince Fielder's MVP credentials so far this year.

The problem is that the Brewers are currently under .500, a losing team.

Does Prince Fielder deserve a spot at the MVP table this year?  He is having a great year, great numbers, is leading the league in RBI, and his patience has allowed his batting average to be over .300 right now. Given the fact that he is playing for a losing team, does his great season merit MVP thoughts (at least serious ones), and for that matter, you can throw Ryan Braun and David Wright into this same class.

As or right now, my MVP ballot, if I were a member of the BBWAA, would be Pujols, 2. Hanley Ramires, 3. Chase Utley, 4. Raul Ibanez, 5. Prince Fielder, 6. Ryan Howard, 7. Matt Kemp, 8. Pablo Sandoval, 9. Yunel Escobar, 10. Shane Victorino.  If you allow the sub .500 status, Fielder would get bumped up to 2nd, and Braun 10th.

In the last 10 years, only 15 players, from sub .500 teams have finished in the top 10 in MVP voting in the NL.  Of those 15, only 3 have finished in the top 5 in voting (Miguel Cabrera, 5th in 06; Derrek Lee, 3rd in 05 and Mark McGwire 5th in 99).  You have to go all the way back to 1995 to find a player from a losing team finishing as high as 2nd in voting (Dante Bichette) and 1992 to find a winner coming from a losing team (Barry Bonds).

What do you think?  Does Fielder deserve serious consideration for the MVP if the Brewers finish the year below .500.  Tell me why.

Poll
After Albert Pujols, who is most worthy of the National League MVP at this point in the season?
Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee
7 votes
Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida
33 votes
Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia
51 votes
Raul Ibanez, LF, Philadelphia
1 votes
Ryan Howard, Philadelphia
0 votes
Matt Kemp, CF, Los Angeles Dodgers
3 votes
Pablo Sandoval, 3B, San Francisco
24 votes

119 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 74 comments

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I'm an alleged Brewer fan, and I have to pick Utley.

I can’t get past Prince’s defensive shortcomings. Also, Utley is ridiculously goo.

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by Jack Moore on Aug 3, 2009 2:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Even as a Cards fan,

I’ve got to recognize the ridiculous season Utley is having. It’s insane how overrated his teammates are and how underrated he is.

15=/=25

by hazel on Aug 3, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would consider being an average first baseman to be a shortcoming.

But a -9 UZR/150 at 1B (which is looking closer to -6 this year, hooray!) means he’s already at the point where he should be a DH.

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by Jack Moore on Aug 3, 2009 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good, too, right?

Also, by FG’s WAR, guess who should be #1 for the MVP right now? That “ridiculously goo” guy.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=nl&qual=y&type=6&season=2009&month=0

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 3, 2009 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Love this part, because it's so true:
Most importantly, though, is that his team is currently in first place in the NL Central.

And then the poll question makes me feel better:

After Albert Pujols, who is most worthy of the National League MVP at this point in the season?

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 3, 2009 2:22 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Pujols doesn't even lead the league in WAR this year, though:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=nl&qual=n&type=6&season=2009&month=0

It’s Utley, Pujols, and Hanley in a close race, with Kemp half a win behind. Both Utley and Pujols have basically been average in the field by UZR, which is strange to see.

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 3, 2009 2:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't like WAR for the MVP

Maybe a combination of WPA+ UZR + Position

F*** Billy Beane... actually, I kinda like Holliday

by vivaelpujols on Aug 3, 2009 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If were going by WAR

Then Lincecum is running away with the thing. How is he not on the poll?

by Franchise55 on Aug 3, 2009 3:01 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

I am the biggest

Lincecum fan in the world. But I always tend to keep the MVP for hitters, every day guys. At best I would put a pitcher somewhere in the top 10.

I love the kid, but the writers dont like picking a pitcher unless there is no clear cut hitter or a down offensive year.

I will look at Cy Young tomorrow, but I cant foresee any way that Lincecum isnt att he top of that list.

by backtocali on Aug 3, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ignoring what the writers do, why would you be willing to include a pitcher in the top ten, but not at number one?

Why is there a penalty? I can understand if you want to define the MVP for hitters only and put the Cy Young on par with it in importance, but I don’t understand a penalty.

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 3, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Looking at various indicators

Pitchers can only compete on one with the hitters, WAR.

So if I am looking at things like OPS, BA, HR, RBI, WAR, VORP, UZR, etc, the pitchers generally only get 1 or 2 chances. The rest are all offensive minded.

My meausre is highly slanted toward hitting and offense, so you could say there is a penalty for pitchers, but it also should actually reflect how little the pitcher plays in the total number of games for a team. Like I said, I love Lincecum, but he is only going to play in 35 games this year. Can an MVP be a guy who has only played about 1/5 of his teams games?

I used to look at Win Shares as well before THT removed them from their stats page and replaced it with WAR. So that plays a little bit of a role when it comes to pitchers.

I would have to say CY is for pitchers and MVP for hitters/the other 8 players.

When I said “top 10” for Lincecum, that was a non-numbers related response, just throwing him in there, realizing his importance to the Giants, but not wanting to include him in the conversation. The topic is out of my league. Maybe thats an article….Pitchers and MVP….

by backtocali on Aug 3, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was afraid this would come out:
Can an MVP be a guy who has only played about 1/5 of his teams games?

Why are games so important? A pitcher throws every pitch while he’s in the game. A starter over 35 starts faces more batters than a hitter has plate appearances in a season. What matters is how many extra wins a player helps his team accumulate. Pitchers just have their contributions bunched together while position players have them spread out.

Win Shares, unadjusted, really underrates pitchers.

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 3, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

So

Is Tim Lincecum your MVP?

by backtocali on Aug 3, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sure.

Many ways to define MVP. Mine’s pretty much in line with “most productive player”. Therefore I go Lincecum.

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 3, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mine’s more in line with “most valuable player” but mixed in “most productive player”. So, it’s like the best of both worlds.

To be honest, Zack Greinke should win the AL MVP.

by FlyByKnight on Aug 3, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed.

Lincecum anf Grienke both should win MVPs and Cy Youngs for their respective leagues.

On a side note, I wonder if any pitcher has ever won the MVP but not the Cy Young…

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 3, 2009 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

relievers would do it occasionally

BBWAA is dumb

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Aug 4, 2009 8:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

bah, looked it up

I was thinking of Jim Konstanty but his MVP season was before the Cy Young Award.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Aug 4, 2009 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd say even the lesser metrics favor Lincecum

WHIP is the only thing that favors Haren

by superk1ng on Aug 4, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd agree.

And WHIP reflects the crazy low BABIP from Haren. Which is a bit weird considering the DBs defense is stellar and their ballpark is hitter friendly. Great pitcher, but a bit overrated this year.

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 4, 2009 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly.

There was the ERA argument, but now even that’s gone.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 4, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He should even be getting the "carrying his team on his back" bonus points.

I mean, it’s the Giants. Do they have any real strengths outside of Lincecum?

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 3, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Matt Cain

Winzzz

F*** Billy Beane... actually, I kinda like Holliday

by vivaelpujols on Aug 3, 2009 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed. He’s not even pitching better than he pitched last season. He’s just getting luckier.

by FlyByKnight on Aug 3, 2009 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

In regards to W-L, yes. In regards to ERA, not so much.

Cain’s peripherals have been amazingly consistent during his major league career. In four full seasons, his K/BB has “ranged” between 2.04 and 2.07. HR/9 between .63 and .85. FIP between 3.75 and 3.96. His ERAs have pretty much matched his FIPs (which are probably a bit helped by his ballpark as he’s a fly ball pitcher) except for this year where he’s sporting a low 2.00s ERA. How? A .257 BABIP and a somewhat related 88% LOB%. As Dennis Green would say, he is who we thought he was. A sub-4.00 ERA, 3.75 WAR guy. Good pitcher, but overrated.

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 3, 2009 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, he’s just getting some ridiculous help. A 17.8% Line Drive rate also helps him.

by FlyByKnight on Aug 4, 2009 2:15 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Quite a few

Pablo Sandoval
Matt Cain
Jonathan Sanchez
Brian Wilson (suck it sabermetrics- he’s been a strength)
Rowand’s defense this year
Randy Winn’s defense!
Jeremy Affeldt

Every one of those guys has been a major contributor to their success.

"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.

by hairball on Aug 3, 2009 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

suck it sabermetrics

this is how we make friends

Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY

by RockiesMagicNumber on Aug 6, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Those guys have been strengths, yes.

But Sandoval is the only one I regret mentioning.

Aaron Rowand’s been solid and should finish the year at about 3.5 WAR. Above average but not great. Randy Winn’s been average overall (better if you count his clutch hitting.)

On the pitching side, Cain is now overrated, as he’s the exact same pitching he’s been the last three years, but with a prettier ERA. He’s a 3.5 WAR guy. Above average, but not great. Jonathan Sanchez is underrated by many, but is still “only” league average (5 BB/9!). Brian Wilson’s pitched quite well, but it’s tough to be really valuable as a reliever, even a closer, and he’s on pay value wise with a league-average position player. Affeldt’s nice, but a 3.50 FIP from a reliever isn’t stellar.

In other words, the Giants have one unbelievable player (Timmy) and one other who’s been great (Sandoval). A couple others have bee above-average, but not stars. I guess that was my point, but in fewer words earlier, which were obviously open to many interpretations.

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 6, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Other than the TV announcers

where is the “bombardment” coming from?

by ol Pete on Aug 3, 2009 4:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

local media as well

wtmj 4’s Brewer Fever comes to mind. I dont read Haudricourt or JS Online very much (probably shoudl because Tom is one of the 2 voters). But Brian Anderson and Rock Schroeder are the first to come to mind.

by backtocali on Aug 3, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

To be fair

Apart from Haudricourt, thats all there is.

Tom H will jump on board any day now. He may not give Fielder a #1 vote, but thats the reason for the post…is Fielder even worthy of a top 5 vote?

Where do you put him?

by backtocali on Aug 3, 2009 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Consider the source.

The Brewers are sub-.500, but Fielder and Braun are the last people who deserve blame for that. Thanks to those two among others, the Brewers offense is among the more fearsome in the league. Just because neither of them pitched enough innings for their team to be in contention doesn’t mean they aren’t worthy of consideration. You’re punishing them for having Jeff Suppan and the rest of the blasted wasteland (minus gallardo) that is the Brewers pitching staff.

15=/=25

by hazel on Aug 4, 2009 12:27 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

F*** Billy Beane... actually, I kinda like Holliday

by vivaelpujols on Aug 4, 2009 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like your sig

F*** Billy Beane... actually, I kinda like Holliday

by vivaelpujols on Aug 4, 2009 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If

you take Fielder, or Braun, off of the Brewers, they still miss the playoffs this year (likely).

The reality of the situation is that players from losing teams get very little consideration for the MVP award. Imo, rightfully so. Why should either of those guys be rewarded for “guiding” their team to 4th place?

Jimmy Rollins won two years ago, for “putting his team” on his back and leading them to the playoffs. This is the type of thing MVP’s do. i.e. Guide underperforming teams to the playoffs.

This all becomes a moot point if the Brewers finish above .500.

by backtocali on Aug 4, 2009 7:35 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mistakes by the writers

should not colour our perceptions of who is deserving of the awards.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Aug 4, 2009 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But

Can a player from a team that isnt very good be considered?

Fielder and Braun are both at 3.8 WAR right now. You take either of them off of the Brewers and the 09 Brewer season is not dramatically altered from what it is right now. In fact, there are 7 position players above those two who are having better years according to WAR.

The poll above shows that what my thesis is about Fielder, at this point in the season is true (albeit unscientific), that he would finish about 5th in MVP voting.

by backtocali on Aug 4, 2009 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Depends what you want the award to mean.

Is it a player award or a player-team award? Would you DQ all Dodgers because if you drop any one player, they’d still make the playoffs?

My biggest problem with ranging too far from “most productive player” is that in twenty years, we look back and treat MVPs pretty much like “most productive player”. We count up MVPs and missed MVPs and use them to rate players’ greatness of HoF eligibility. We “forget” that those awards were decided with huge amounts of team-related context, making them unsuitable to answer the questions we use them for.

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 4, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dodgers

The Dodgers are a great example to bring up here, imo. Matt Kemp is the only player, so far to be having a very good year. But they have a great “team”, lots of parts doing well to achieve a similar goal. They are all as valuable as another. So do they get disqualified because if you take one away they still make the playoffs? Not quite, but that is the definition of a very good team.

The HOF has quite a few players on it from bad teams, and it has quite a few players in it that were very good team players.

I dont think its too much to ask that the MVP have a dramatic impact on its team, and if that team winds up in the playoffs, extra condideration is given. If you take Utley off of the Phils, they arent breezing as much as they are now. If you take Ramirez off of the Fish they are problaby near last place. If you take Sandoval off of the Giants they are no where near the Wild Card….Kemp is a different story, if you take him off of the Dodgers, the Dodgers are still a very good team. If you take Fielder or Braun off of the Brewers, they are still a mediocre team.

I just think that the MVP should not only be quite productive, but a difference maker.

by backtocali on Aug 4, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If Barry Bonds, circa 2001-2004 (10-12 WAR) were on a team that won 75 games, can he be MVP?

If he’s on a 105 win team that only needed 90 wins to make the playoffs, can he be MVP?

And how can we make the adjustment subjective? How much do you penalize a player for being on a non-contender? How much more credit does he get for being on a pseudo-contender? How much more credit for being on a team that finishes one game out of the playoffs? How much more if his team wins two more games and makes the playoffs?

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 4, 2009 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good point but

Were talking about a 10 to 12 WAR vs a 3.8 WAR. I would call a 10 WAR, even on a losing team, a difference maker, and definitely a guy with great production. That merits MVP.

If Fielder were at a 6 or 7 WAR with a losing Brewer team that would be a different story than a 3.8 WAR on a .500/barely contending/pseudo contending team.

Lets set a standard. I have a standard that I am trying to elaborate, and it appears to be a worthy standard as of now.

by backtocali on Aug 4, 2009 11:07 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

ok heres a start

Have to set mvp and cy young guidelines…I personally feel that the mvp is for position players so thats rule one

At least 4.0 WAR to be considered, anything over 7 is a front runner regardless of team record

The 4.0 WAR must have a significant effect on the final place in the team’s standings….

The players team must finish above .500, unless they have over a 7.0 WAR…

Theres a start….let me know what you think or would like to add….

by backtocali on Aug 4, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Methodology

Take various stats…BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, HR, RBI, RC, GPA, BABIP, RISP, Clutch, WAR, WPA, VORP, UZR…yes I realize that certain things in there are double counted, but some players have a bad BA but good Slg or not a ton of HR and nice OPS, etc….

Then look at the top 10 in the league and rank them, 1st 1, 2nd 2, etc….total up all of the numbers into one value. Lowest number is best player so far….

Then give certain stats a premium, BA, HR, OPS, RBI, RC, WAR, WPA, VORP

Once numbers are all added up, add up the number of stats they are ranked in….

Player with most stats is highest….E.g. if Pujols is ranked in 15 stats, he sets the standard…the liste then goes down the line, eliminating outliers such as players that only show up on one stat…

For each number below the leader in # of stats, add 5 or 10 whatever you prefer to be your number, I use 5 to the total amount of the rankings…..

For each premium stat ranked, subtract 5….

At the end you get your MVP…

I realize that there must be some issue here that I miss, but I am not a mathemetician, and as you say, its fun for me.

If you want you can do things like not give the premium discount to players that play for teams under .500….

by backtocali on Aug 6, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Here's the problem as I see it

WAR doesn’t take situational production into account. It looks at a body of work and gives it a number. Assigning an MVP based on an arbitrary cutoff and then further qualifying it based on a team’s production is ridiculous.

I like VEP’s suggestion of WPA + UZR adjusted for position, with some refining of course.

Now this is problematic for me, just because of the fact that I’m trying to mold a statistical metric to try and correspond with the BBWAA’s lines of thinking: Who added the big hits? Who came up hugest when the team really needed them?

That said, WPA covers the situational production while WAR is more based on the body of work as a valuation method.

I don’t put much weight into WPA just because it has no predictive value, but it’s always kind of fun to look back and see who came up biggest, who reversed fates the best.

So WAR? Sure, sign that free agent. But give them the MVP? iiiiii dunno…….

Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY

by RockiesMagicNumber on Aug 6, 2009 12:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I would like to see something like xWPA

Meaning what a player’s WPA if he had a normal distribution of high and low leverage situations.

F*** Billy Beane... actually, I kinda like Holliday

by vivaelpujols on Aug 6, 2009 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's not what I mean

If a player bats .500 in a certain situation, how many runs would he contribute if he played in that situation an average amount of times. That would take out the opportunity issues of WPA.

F*** Billy Beane... actually, I kinda like Holliday

by vivaelpujols on Aug 7, 2009 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Something like that

Don’t know how you would split up the situations though.

F*** Billy Beane... actually, I kinda like Holliday

by vivaelpujols on Aug 7, 2009 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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