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Graph of the Day: The Nate McLouth Factor

EDIT: Thanks for BobbyMac in the comments for pointing out a flaw in my data.  It's not quite as much fun as the original results, but it's still pretty conclusive.  Expect a couple more graphs later today tomorrow, too.

Listening to broadcasts crews and the mainstream media talk about defense can be painful.  I think most of the broadcasters understand the basic concepts behind what makes a good defense.  A good defender has good instincts, positions himself well, gets a good first step, throws hard, can make plays on both sides as well as right at him, has good range, and makes plays on balls that he gets to. 

Unfortunately, the one stat that many people refer to plainly as "defense" is fielding percentage.  Fielding percentage is an attractive statistic, much in the way batting average is.  The formula is simple:  Fld% = Errors/Total Chances.  As such, the statistic is too simple to measure the complexities of defense.  It only measures one of the criterion mentioned above - making plays on balls a defender reaches. 

UZR is, so far, our best attempt at quantifying all these criteria.  Right now, UZR is the sabermetric communities best attempt at quantifying run prevention by fielders.  As I showed way back before I was an author here, there is a very significant correlation between UZR and the run differential we see between FIP and actual ERA.  As UZR as well as our advanced pitching statistics are fine tuned,  I would expect

Still, one would naturally expect that fielding percentage would strongly correlate to run prevention.  Batting average, despite all its flaws, still has a very significant corrleation to runs scored.  It's just not as good as OBP, SLG, OPS, or wOBA.  Does fielding percentage fit this mold?  Is it just the limited first step in a line that leads up to UZR?  The following graph will reveal the truth.

Star-divide

 

Using the data from this season, which is more than 8000 innings of defensive data per team, I've plotted our two statistics in question.  UZR, we already know, is directly related to run prevention.  So if fielding percentage is also direclty related to run prevention, we should expect at least some sort of positive correlation between the two.

In fact, we no correlation whatsoever.  That means that we cannot say anything about how good a team is defensively, even if we know its fielding percentage. I suspect that this relationship is as such because of the inherent flaws of fielding percentage, the biggest of which being its complete and total inability to measure range.  Many of the balls that the teams with the high UZRs are reaching (and those with low UZRs aren't) are very tough plays even after getting to them.  Scorers may see these players with great range get to these balls and expect them to make plays that other fielders wouldn't have a chance at.  This is not to say that a high fielding percentage is bad, but merely that the subjectivity of errors leads to many plays being incorrectly labeled as poor.

This is what I call the Nate McLouth factor.  This is why Nate McLouth can win a gold glove despite being one of the worst defensive center fielders in the game.  He is merely the most recent example.  This concept is not new.  But it is an important starting point when one tries to improve his or her knowledge of what to look for in a defender.

2 recs  |  Comment 30 comments |

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Nice

Very good graph, rec’d. Although, as I mentioned in the game thread last night, Steve Phillips mentioned Defensive Effeciency Rating (reverse BABIP) in the pre-game show. Baby steps.

F*** Billy Beane... actually, I kinda like Holliday

by vivaelpujols on Aug 3, 2009 6:05 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

nice article

I’d be interested to see a similar study on UZR and Range Factor

by jibs on Aug 3, 2009 8:26 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

this

I have a question is anyone here can answer it about UZR…basically, how is this possible?

Adam Jones has the highest range factor (3.1) of OF in the majors, and has a RngR of -13.8. I would expect a high (or at least decent) correlation between RF and RngR. In my mind, this could be one of a few things:

  1. He’s catching a lot of balls out of the zone (Markakis scores pretty low this year at 1.9/-8.8) but missing balls in the zone
  2. He’s playing too shallow, so he’s letting extra base hits go over his head while robbing short singles
  3. There is a problem with UZR
  4. SSS
  5. Ballpark factor

"I don't like to be here and just thinking about in October I'm going to go on vacation " -- Melmo moaning about being benched when he's hitting .256/.321/.330

by CoachOfEarl on Aug 3, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not fully up on range factor (which could be seen as a good or a bad thing.)

But it rewards opportunities, right? So if the outfield is large and the Orioles’ pitching staff doesn’t strike many hitters out and allows a lot of fly balls, that gives Dodger OFs a lot of opportunity to field fly balls and score highly in RF.

SSS is my second favorite explanation. Also that Jones might not be as good as our eyes say he is.

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 3, 2009 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

RF does reward opportunities

It’s PO based, so you’re correct there.

Looking at RZR, which is a rate stat, AJ scores a .925, (211/228) which (I’m eyeballing here) seems about average. He is in the top 3 in OOZ (76), which seems like the AJ I see frequently, roaming into everyone’s territory. None of this suggests anything to earn such a negative UZR Range rating.

I guess what I’m trying to figure out is, what are the details of UZR (specifically range) ratings. I know they break the field into slices and zones, and certain zones are assigned to fielders, but (how) are they weighted? If one fielder comes into another’s zone, is there a penalty?

How can this data be used to look at where a fielder is making mistakes, rather than just ranking them against one another? Is this all proprietary info?

I like love the idea of UZR but I don’t know if I trust it without seeing the real guts of it.

"I don't like to be here and just thinking about in October I'm going to go on vacation " -- Melmo moaning about being benched when he's hitting .256/.321/.330

by CoachOfEarl on Aug 3, 2009 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Most of the detailed data are proprietary, yes.

Basically, UZR comes up with a probability that each play will be made. Let’s say it’s 20% for a line drive gapper off a lefty handed pitcher against a right handed hitter in a certain ballpark (all included in the calculation). If the play is made, the fielder gets credit for +.8 plays. If not, he’s docked .2 plays. I believe UZR also calculates the run value of the play, so it’s really +.8 x run value or -.2 x run value.

Dave Pinto’s system is more open, and he has some sweet graphs of range by vector (but not slices moving from home plate to the outfield wall.) So you can see, for example, how an outfielder does with balls right at him, to his right, to his left, etc. Well, you can see that for past seasons and will be able to see it for 2009 after the season is over.

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 3, 2009 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe ask MGL?

He’s usually on The Book’s blog, and he suppiles the UZR data to FanGraphs, so you can probably find him there.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 3, 2009 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks

I’ll look this over in detail later.

"I don't like to be here and just thinking about in October I'm going to go on vacation " -- Melmo moaning about being benched when he's hitting .256/.321/.330

by CoachOfEarl on Aug 5, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

UZR

Most of what you would want to know about UZR are included at links found in the fangraphs Glossary entry. (the above link and 2 subsequent ones)

by BobbyMac on Aug 5, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

#2 sounds plausible, to me.

I know that’s the going excuse for Bay’s suckishness in LF, along with not knowing every nook and cranny of the Monster like Manny did. I don’t know of anything that tracks where each player is positioned and has the data publicly available.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 3, 2009 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Everybody email Colin with range factor questions.

I’m sure we could make it better with the right tweaks…

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 4, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good stuff, but some questions...

Not sure what you mean with some of the data here:

- Obviously, no team has a 1.000 Fld% (I think I heard on a telecast recently that the Jays lead with .990). Is the graph for one position only (CF perhaps, tying into McLouth)?
- You say something about 8000 innings per team in 2009 – what are you getting at there? A team only plays just over 1400 innings of defense. Or is it ~900 innings per team times 9 positions?

by BobbyMac on Aug 3, 2009 9:13 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yes, this graph is CF only.

I don’t know how I missed that.

---
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by Jack Moore on Aug 3, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Now I'm really confused...

Just had a friend do a correlation on 2009 team UZR vs 2009 Fld%, and each to RA/G, as we were discussing the topic. He’s not registered on here,but here are the correlation coefficients he came up with:

FP to UZR/150 0.05
FP to RA -0.23
UZR/150 to RA -0.34

These are team totals, so just 30 data points – a tiny sample size, of course.

by BobbyMac on Aug 3, 2009 10:19 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I re-ran my data when I realized the mistake I had made.

It turns out that the r for all positions is, like you said, .05

However, you wouldn’t want to straight up compare FP to RA, you’d want to compare it to to the difference between their fielding independent pitching stats and their ERA (FIP-ERA or tRA – RA). Bad pitching teams with good defense still have poor RA.

---
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com

by Jack Moore on Aug 3, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fixed it. No correlation is still a pretty significant find.

I will expand on this later today or tomorrow.

---
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com

by Jack Moore on Aug 3, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

agreed.

I read your linked article, and that’s clearly better than using RA. I hadn’t really meant to do anything with it, but I mentioned running the correlation, and – as noted -a friend ran with it (he had the data in front of him, and I didn’t at the time). Figured I would just include everything he ran.

We were just doing the quick-and-dirty computations as a sanity check – since the initial outcome only really made sense if for every “steady” fielder (i.e. low E’s), he was also not rangy, which doesn’t make sense. There are certainly some, who are possibly trying to protect their image by not making errors, but I’d guess that a vast majority of players give an honest all-out effort on defense.

by BobbyMac on Aug 3, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This actually gives me an interesting idea!

Gonna have an edit up in about 20 minutes or so.

---
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com

by Jack Moore on Aug 3, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gasp!

Wow. So simple yet so… yeah…

http://statspeak.net

by pizzacutter on Aug 3, 2009 11:50 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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