Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Blake Griffin Slam Dunks: NBA Jam Style

A Sarcastic Reminder Why the Elias Free Agent Rankings Are Dumb

It's tough to detect sarcasm on the inter-tubes sometimes, so I'll make it clear when I'm being sarcastic below.  Look for the "Sarcasm!" warnings (not to be confused with the "Ichiro!" warnings.)  What is clear is that the Elias player rankings, which determine Type A and Type B free agents, are more than a little out of whack.  Here's what I mean...

Star-divide

Position Groups

Type A/B free agents are the top 20%/40% of free agents in each of these five positional categories:

  • Group 1: first basemen, outfielders, and designated hitters
  • Group 2: second basemen, third basemen, and shortstops
  • Group 3: catchers
  • Group 4: starters
  • Group 5: relievers

Looking at Group 1, you've got center fielders lumped in with designated hitters.  Yes, that makes sense, and those two positions have pretty similar defensive value.  (Sarcasm!  Center fielders are actually similar in value to second and third basemen, twenty runs more valuable than DHs.  First basemen are fifteen runs worse and corner outfielders are ten runs worse.  I don't see any team signing Jim Thome to play center field this off-season, do you?)

Looking at Group 5, we see that the top relievers are deemed just as valuable as top starters and top position players.  Naturally, that makes sense.  (Sarcasm!  Even a bullpen ace like Mariano Rivera is "only" a 4 WAR guy.  Eleven startering pitchers have hit that number already this season, with four above 5 WAR and two above 6 WAR.

Rating Metrics

Each group of players is rated on a similar set of numbers:

  • 1B/OF/DH: PA, AVG, OBP, HR, RBI

Perfect.  I agree 100%.  (Sarcasm!  I mean, seriously?  At least we know a Triple Crown winner will be a Type A free agent.  Whew!  (Oops, that's more Sarcasm!))

  • 2B/3B/SS: PA, AVG, OBP, HR, RBI, Fielding percentage, Total chances at designated position

What?  No stolen bases!?  I thought the middle infield was a place for speed, not power?  (Sarcasm!  At least an attempt is made to measure defense, even if the stats are nearly worthless.)

  • CA: PA, AVG, OBP, HR, RBI, Fielding percentage, Assists

Finally, some good defensive metrics.  (Sarcasm!  Really, this is just silly.  Having figure skating judges rate the aesthetics of each catcher's helmet wouldn't be a less valuable category.  Note that there's no sarcasm there.  Would including stolen base percentage or passed balls really be that overwhelming?)

  • SP: Total games (total starts + 0.5 * total relief appearances), IP, Wins, W-L Percentage, ERA, Strikeouts

Good, in order to balance out the rationality of ERA and strikeouts we needed to double up on the playing time metrics and include both Winz and W-L record.  (Sarcasm! That's actually how you get Gavin Floyd on the A list and John Danks on the B list.)

  • RP: Total games (total relief appearances + 2 * total starts), IP (weighted slightly less than other categories), Wins + Saves, IP/H ratio, K/BB, ERA

No sarcasm this time, I'm done pretending to be witty.  Why is IP weighted slightly less than other categories?  I mean, if you're suddenly going to be smart and weight the categories, why just one and why this one?

The Silver Lining

While the algorithm used in these rankings is ridiculous, the good news is that the rankings end up being moderately decent.  Over the course of two seasons, the better pitchers do tend to win more games and the better hitters do tend to have more RBI.  It's actually pretty hard to create a metric that's a hodge podge of random stats and that completely misses the boat.  But we can definitely do a lot better at creating a list of the best free agents -- instead of getting the tiers 70% right, 90% right seems like a better goal.  And it wouldn't be too hard to get there if, you know, mainstream baseball coverage wasn't in love with RBIs and fielding percentage.

All information from this MLB Trade Rumors post which got its information from Keith Law.

Comment 28 comments  |  1 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Around SB Nation

Fun With The Elias Rankings

Nov 2009 from Lookout Landing - 29 comments

Comments

Display:

Awful

just rank by wOBA and tRA – or even bRAA and pRAA, Graham provides all the answers

Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY

by Andrew Martin on Aug 3, 2009 1:07 PM EDT reply actions  

Leaving aside for a moment the discussion about rate versus counting stats...

…and average versus replacement level baselines – the Elias ratings are (AFACT) collectively bargained between MLB and MLBPA. Litterally millions of dollars are staked on these. There is a lot of resistance from people who benefit from the curious provisions in these rankings to ever changing them.

by cwyers on Aug 3, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is a good example of collective bargaining leading to outcomes that diverge from an efficient market. What I think is fascinating is that players are negotiating contracts that prevent teams from offering them arbitration in order to raise their eventual value as free agents (Orlando Cabrera is the example that comes to mind). The net result is to increase future salary.

Another interesting wrinkle is that, in many cases, a player falling just barely below the cutoff for Type A makes them significantly more valuable on the free agent market. So there are some strange incentives.

by Tommy Bennett on Aug 4, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

bRAA and pRAA would include quantity, not just quality.

Not saying that’s the best way to do it, but it’s really not that hard to do it.

I agree with you that there has to be some factor of longevity, true.

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 3, 2009 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

While it would hurt the value of some contracts,

it seems like it would be better to just award picks based on how much the player signs for. Perhaps dollars spent in free agency could be used to change early round draft order or something. It could even be significantly improved by just aligning positions better and incorporating relief in with starting,

15=/=25

by hazel on Aug 3, 2009 4:03 PM EDT reply actions  

I love this idea.

You could even simply pay a fixed percentage of the contract to the old team. Lose a guy who signs for $100M? Earn $10M. Lose a guy who signs for $10M? Earn $1M.

Option years and incentives would throw a monkey wrench in things, however.

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 3, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

MLBPA agrees to compensatory picks...

…so that they can have a say-so in the amatur player draft. It makes no sense for them to agree to monetary compensation, which holds down salaries without giving any benefit to MLBPA.

by cwyers on Aug 3, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’ve been thinking of a system similar to hazel’s for awhile so I was curious if you could explain your thought a little more. How does the current rule benefit the MLBPA? I don’t see how they have a say-so in the draft.

by Toffer Peak on Aug 3, 2009 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

They decide who they sign with, which determines who their former teams get picks from.

Beyond that, I’m not sure. It’s not like players make decisions to harm or help their former team.

by bdalebs on Aug 3, 2009 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

The compensatory draft picks are part of the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

That gives the MLBPA the right to grieve certain things related to the draft – for instance, when Pedro Alvarez signed a contract with the Pirates after the signing deadline, MLBPA filed a grievance. Without compensatory picks, the draft would not fall under the auspices of the CBA at all, since draftees are not yet part of the union.

by cwyers on Aug 4, 2009 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks for the response.

But couldn’t the MLBPA get around that by just accepting any player drafted in the union, at least provisionally? This way regardless of the rules they would have a say in aspects of the draft that they are apparently interested in.

by Toffer Peak on Aug 4, 2009 3:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

The draftees might not want to be part of the union

I’m not sure the players are all that happy with big bonuses going to unproven prospects. They’d rather it be spent on free agents.

by Dan Turkenkopf on Aug 4, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

I believe Bonds turned down the MLBPA (or at least the gaming section). Ever noticed he was never in any video games

Minor White > Ansel Adams

by say hey nation on Aug 10, 2009 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I noticed that too.

Of course, Dice K was missing in all the 07 games.

by bdalebs on Aug 10, 2009 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bonds opted out of the MLBPA's marketing agreement

But was still represented by them in collective bargaining and for labor issues.

by Dan Turkenkopf on Aug 11, 2009 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

To fix that, just make it yearly payments...

IE, sign a player for 4 years $60M with a 5th year option at $15M and a $5M buyout:

Y1: $12M, earn $1.2M
Y2: $14M, earn $1.4M
Y3: $16M, earn $1.6M
Y4: $18M, earn $1.8M
Y5: $15M or $5M, earn $1.5M or $500k

It’d probably be a nice consistant cash flow for some small market teams….

by erosen on Aug 4, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

Scoring runs is useless apparently

unless they are by your own bat. That’s the only way to win games!

"I don't like to be here and just thinking about in October I'm going to go on vacation " -- Melmo moaning about being benched when he's hitting .256/.321/.330

by CoachOfEarl on Aug 3, 2009 5:36 PM EDT reply actions  

Holy #$%#

F*** Billy Beane... actually, I kinda like Holliday

by vivaelpujols on Aug 3, 2009 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Also

So is Yadier Molina

F*** Billy Beane... actually, I kinda like Holliday

by vivaelpujols on Aug 3, 2009 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

hahahahahahahahahhahahahaha

can i stop laughing now? Can we be serious?

thats just total fail.

"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"

by blalock84 on Aug 3, 2009 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

I remember coming across this list a few weeks ago. I stumbled upon it and almost had a heart attack. Some of the rankings are just hilarity.

If I remember correctly, the Dodgers have like eight Type A free agents. Or something stupid.

by FlyByKnight on Aug 4, 2009 2:54 AM EDT reply actions  

There is one thing that makes the Elias rankings better and worse at the same time:

They are two year averages. Good, because they help a team not get robbed because of a great contract-year-performance, but bad because they reward a player on the decline the same as a player on the rise.

by bdalebs on Aug 4, 2009 3:22 AM EDT reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

We use numbers and stuff.
Community Guidelines
Why be a member?

Follow us on Facebook!

Follow us on Twitter!

SaberGraphics

Yahoo_full_count

MLB Daily Dish

Get the latest MLB Trade Rumors, Transactions, and News at MLB Daily Dish!


Managing Editor:

Jbopp-kc_small Justin Bopp

Columnists:

Adam_small adarowski

Dme_small Satchel Price

Closeup4_small J-Doug

Carlosicon_small Julian Levine

Billy_and_daddy_4th_of_july_small Bill Petti

Featuring:

Dayton_small Jeff Zimmerman

12475953_small Jacob Peterson

Recent_pic_pg_small Patrick Gordon

Btbpro_small Dave Gershman

Me_small Bryan Grosnick

229331_10150183361996591_674441590_6760167_6637860_n3_small Lewie Pollis

Img_3830_small David Fung

30472_1481067225243_1190689185_1381415_997334_n_small Glenn DuPaul

1mnvxku7_small joshuaworn

Set_small MattFilippi18

Photo0011_small Nathaniel Stoltz