BtB Power Rankings: Through Wednesday, August 26th, 2009

by JinAZ on Aug 27, 2009 10:24 PM EDT in Power Rankings Comment 26 comments

More photos » David Zalubowski - AP

Dexter Fowler, shown here scoring on a wild pitch, has used his speed to help the Rockies climb to the top of the NL West in our On-Paper rankings. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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Welcome to our weekly ranking of all the MLB teams! In this ranking, we use aggregate team hitting, pitching, and fielding statistics--not team wins, losses, runs scored, or runs allowed--to evaluate the performance of teams to date. You can think of the estimated winning percentage (eW%) below as how we'd expect things to fall out if we threw teams with these aggregate statistics into one big league and let them battle it out for thousands of games. They don't replace your actual standings, but they give you something different to consider when thinking about team performances.

New this week: Baserunning! In all previous editions of the power ranking, the only baserunning information was the SB/CS data that is included in wRC from FanGraphs. This week, after many weeks of vague promises to do so, I've added Dan Fox's Equivalent Base Running Runs, which includes SB/CS's, but also includes that player's advancement on ground balls, fly balls, hits (e.g. going first to third), and other circumstances (advancing on wild pitches, passed balls, & walks). The result does help a few of the teams we've routinely ranked lower than their true or pythagorean records would predict (especially the Giants). In other cases, the difference our estimated winning percentages and actual winning percentages became even larger (e.g. Rays and Reds). Nevertheless, I think it's a nice improvement to our rankings.

The table is sortable if you click in the header. All data are park-adjusted when possible. A legend is below the table, followed by commentary.

Beyond The Boxscore Power Rankings

Rank	Chg	Team	wOBA	wRC	BRR	eRS	tERA	tRns	Fld	eRA	eW%lg	LgAdj	eW%
1	+1	TB	0.354	686	7	693	4.38	587	33.7	553	0.613	15.7	0.637
2	-1	NYA	0.362	750	-7	743	4.45	603	4.7	598	0.599	15.7	0.621
3	0	BOS	0.343	650	2	653	3.97	537	-23.9	561	0.575	15.7	0.599
4	+2	COL	0.332	590	8	598	3.56	482	-2.8	485	0.605	-15.8	0.578
5	-1	LAN	0.336	639	-7	632	3.89	539	28.0	511	0.592	-15.8	0.567
6	+2	TOR	0.333	596	9	606	4.25	575	1.9	573	0.535	15.6	0.560
7	+2	LAA	0.354	689	3	692	4.86	649	-6.7	655	0.529	15.6	0.552
8	-1	TEX	0.333	585	-4	581	4.44	591	38.6	552	0.521	15.6	0.546
9	-4	CHA	0.325	564	-7	558	3.83	515	-13.5	529	0.518	15.8	0.545
10	+2	PHI	0.340	634	-4	630	4.31	580	15.7	564	0.549	-15.4	0.525
11	-1	CLE	0.341	641	1	642	4.66	626	-21.3	647	0.497	15.7	0.520
12	-1	MIN	0.339	631	6	636	4.55	617	-32.5	649	0.494	15.8	0.519
13	+3	OAK	0.320	527	11	538	4.17	563	-10.2	573	0.480	15.7	0.507
14	+1	DET	0.328	570	-2	568	4.56	609	18.7	590	0.481	15.7	0.506
15	-1	ATL	0.327	586	-10	575	3.81	518	-14.8	532	0.527	-15.7	0.501
16	+3	STL	0.329	576	0	576	4.05	551	-1.3	553	0.519	-15.9	0.493
17	-4	ARI	0.318	549	-5	544	3.92	535	14.7	520	0.516	-15.8	0.489
18	0	FLA	0.334	605	1	607	4.36	589	-11.8	601	0.506	-15.7	0.481
19	+1	SEA	0.319	536	-5	531	4.70	642	48.6	594	0.444	15.8	0.470
20	-3	CHN	0.319	550	-14	536	4.00	535	5.8	529	0.494	-15.4	0.468
21	+1	SF	0.308	472	8	480	3.94	535	43.0	492	0.496	-15.8	0.467
22	+1	MIL	0.336	621	-9	612	4.91	654	12.7	641	0.471	-15.7	0.447
23	-2	BAL	0.325	584	-19	565	4.64	624	-29.5	653	0.419	15.8	0.443
24	0	KC	0.312	504	-11	493	4.19	557	-47.5	604	0.399	15.7	0.424
25	0	NYN	0.323	547	4	551	4.37	588	-34.4	622	0.446	-15.8	0.420
26	0	WAS	0.333	614	-7	607	4.92	656	-25.5	682	0.440	-15.8	0.416
27	0	HOU	0.322	539	0	539	4.38	589	-22.4	611	0.440	-15.7	0.415
28	0	PIT	0.317	508	-3	506	4.61	603	20.7	582	0.433	-15.4	0.407
29	0	SD	0.320	545	-9	537	4.78	656	-13.6	670	0.391	-15.9	0.367
30	0	CIN	0.301	465	-8	458	4.61	622	25.1	596	0.376	-15.6	0.350

Offense
wOBA (park-corrected, includes all baserunning)
wRC (wRC from FanGraphs, with baserunning removed, then park adjusted)
BRR (Equivalent Base Running Runs from Baseball Prospectus)
eRS (estimated runs scored) = wRC + BRR

Defense
Pitching = tERA and tRns are a home-brew version of Graham MacAree's statistic.
Fielding = Fld: average of bUZR (from FanGraphs) and THT's batted balls statistic (converted to runs)
eRA (estimated runs allowed) = Pitching - Fielding

eW%lg = estimated winning percentage within the specific league (AL or NL). Compare this to true winning %!
LgAdj = league adjustment (bonus to AL teams, penalty to NL teams, because the AL has superior level of play)
eW% = estimated winning percentage if all teams were in one league (after league adjustment)

Methods provided in more detail in the first post in this series

Team Leaders (asterisks indicate teams improving in specific ranking):

American League

Offense (wOBA): Yankees, Angels, Rays
Pitching (tERA): White Sox, Red Sox, Athletics
Fielding (Fld): Mariners, Rangers, Rays

National League
Offense (wOBA): Phillies, Brewers*, Dodgers
Pitching (tERA): Rockies, Braves, Dodgers*
Fielding (Fld): Giants, Dodgers, Reds

"On Paper" Playoff Leaders (asterisks indicate new leaders):

American League: E=Rays*, C=White Sox, W=Angels*, WC=Yankees
National League: E=Phillies, C=Cardinals*, W=Rockies*, WC=Dodgers

This Week's Movers

For the first time all year, the Dodgers are not ranked first in the NL West! The Rockies have been an unbelievably good team since firing their previous manager. But I never would have guessed that they'd catch the Dodgers, as they always just seemed so far ahead. Nevertheless, based on component statistics, the Rockies are now ranked as the best team in the NL West, based on their year-to-date performance. The addition of baserunning stat is important here--there is a 15-run difference between Dodger and Rocky baserunning. The Dodgers still have a three-game lead in reality, but they have to be terrified at this point.

We also see changes in three other on-paper division races, all of which can also be traced to the baserunning statistics. The Rays are once again ranked over the Yankees, in large part thanks to their 14-run baserunning advantage. The Angels have pulled ahead of the Rangers, barely, thanks to their 7-run baserunning advantage. And the Cardinals pull ahead of the Cubs, who are the worst baserunning team in the league at -14 runs. Small run differences can mean a lot in some of these tight races.

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Comments

God the Orioles suck at base runnings... they have lost almost 2 wins because of it

Ugggh

http://4parl.wordpress.com/ Check it out!

by Markakis and Wieters 4 Life on Aug 27, 2009 10:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Baserunning = win

Smoltz.

by vivaelpujols on Aug 28, 2009 2:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It's amazing how variable these types of calculations can be

If we look at Giants-Rockies comparison then according to these rankings the Rockies have been a 14 win better team over the season so far.

If we look at the two teams WAR (batters + pitchers) from fangraphs then the Rockies have been a 2.9 win better team.

Given that they’re both trying to illustrate similar things (and even have some of the same inputs) in a slightly different way it shows how much variance there is.

Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!

by GiantFan on Aug 28, 2009 5:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

tRA likes the Rockies a lot

And FanGraphs uses FIP. That’s probably the sole reason for the variance you are seeing

Smoltz.

by vivaelpujols on Aug 28, 2009 5:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That’s certainly one of the reasons for the variance although it looks to be only around half. The other half seems to come from defense (THT’s metric must like the Rockies a lot) and offense (i’m not sure where that difference comes from aside from the base running)

My point was more just pointing out that there is more variance in the results than you might expect.

Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!

by GiantFan on Aug 28, 2009 7:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not sure what version of wOBA Justin is using

But there can be significant differences between FanGraphs’ wOBA and, say, StatCorner’s wOBA.

Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog

by SFiercex4 on Aug 28, 2009 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm now calculating wOBA myself

…from Offensive RAA (hitting RAA + baserunning). So wOBA now includes all of Dan Fox’s baserunning info as part of the measure of offense, which I really like. The only thing missing is reached-on-errors, which isn’t included in FanGraphs’ data or calculations.

The formula is here, solved for “player wOBA”:
http://www.insidethebook.com/woba.shtml
-j

My blog: Basement-Dwellers.com
Also: Beyond the Boxscore

by JinAZ on Aug 28, 2009 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fielding

Here’s what I have for the two teams:

Giants
bUZR = +55 runs
THT = +31 runs

Rockies
bUZR = -23 runs
THT = +18 runs

Mismatch in both cases, though the Giants are unanimously a fantastic fielding team. The Rockies go from good to bad depending on your metric. I tend to lean toward bUZR as it’s got more information, though I’ve seen bUZR do strange things in Denver, especially in the outfield. Dunno, it could be right. But Willy Taveras went from a plus fielder to a below-average fielder in his time in Denver. With Cinci he’s a plus fielder again. It’s an anecdote with small sample sizes, but I wonder if the park factors there are off somehow.
-j

My blog: Basement-Dwellers.com
Also: Beyond the Boxscore

by JinAZ on Aug 28, 2009 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd love to see a set of rankings from the most recent month or two.

Maybe subtract out the data from the first week you ran this?

Beyond the Boxscore Not a member? Sign up.

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 28, 2009 10:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I could probably do that at some point

If someone wants to do it yourselves, feel free. Should be easy to do.

Maybe at the end of the season I can do a month-by-month review of the season or something. I’ll think on it.
-j

My blog: Basement-Dwellers.com
Also: Beyond the Boxscore

by JinAZ on Aug 28, 2009 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

please don't,

the Royals would surely be in the bottom 3 or 4, even with the league adjustment.

He can get 4, NOT 5.

by Warden11 on Aug 29, 2009 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

nice to have baserunning added

Did you tale the SB/CS element out of FanGraphs’ wOBA or did you subtract EqSBR from EqBRR?

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Aug 28, 2009 10:13 AM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs

I'm cheating a little...

and subtracting EqSBR from FanGraphs’ wRC. Mathmatically, it’s the same as subtracting EqSBR from EqBRR when it comes to the estimated runs scored. But this way I can get a “pure” hitting number and keep EqBRR intact.

Hopefully EqSBR will be very close to the SB & CS linear weights values in wRC. I’m guessing they are.

The alternative, of course, is to calculate the linear weights myself. I could do that, but I prefer to use values like those from FanGraphs whenever I can (though I do park adjust them).
-j

My blog: Basement-Dwellers.com
Also: Beyond the Boxscore

by JinAZ on Aug 28, 2009 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

cool

any reason you don’t just use their park-adjusted “Batting” numbers from the (team) WAR leadboards? To get park-adjusted wRC, you’d then just do wRC-wRAA+Batting for each team.

I do like to do the stuff from my own bdb for myself, but for 2009 it doesn’t work, natch (I use terpsfans park factors)

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Aug 29, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No good reason

I think it was just that I was pulling from a different table. And since I don’t really know how they do park factors, I’d rather just use Patriot’s when all else is equal. 5-year park factors, with regression. Hard to beat ’em.
-j

My blog: Basement-Dwellers.com
Also: Beyond the Boxscore

by JinAZ on Aug 29, 2009 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Applemen mentioned somewhere

that they use the same methods as Patriots to calculate park-factors

I use terpsfans because they use a similar method… but he also help me understand how to apply them properly. Most importantly, they were formatted so that I could easilly import them into MySQL.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Aug 31, 2009 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m surprised the Giants aren’t last.

by 49er16 on Aug 28, 2009 12:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I keep trying to beat them down

But they just keep rising up. Baserunning helped them.
-j

My blog: Basement-Dwellers.com
Also: Beyond the Boxscore

by JinAZ on Aug 28, 2009 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Glad to see Oakland jump some places…only to lose them in the next rankings.

ken korach's voice is like peanut butter on velvet, not joe buck's.

by mrbendy on Aug 28, 2009 12:11 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs

A's 13th? Wow.

This is what getting rid of Giambi and Orlando Cabrera will do to you. The A’s have steadily increased in these rankings since then, even though Pennington and Everidge aren’t really starting caliber MLB players.

and the +11 baserunning runs make me happy. Young team can run.

"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West

by Blicks on Aug 28, 2009 5:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs