BtB Sunday Night Game Thread: Dodgers @ Braves 8/2/09
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 2, 2009 10:17 AM EDT
in Game of the Week
52 comments
The Braves are my pick to challenge the Phillies for the NL East if the Phillies leave themselves open to any sort of challenge. Their outfield has been upgraded with Nate McLouth and Ryan Church, the rotation remains stellar, and many of the hitters are due for second-half (third-third?) rebounds. Atlanta also has a shot at the Wild Card, but even though they're only four games back, they'd need to leap-frog four teams -- including the Rockies, whom Justin rates as the second-best team in the National League -- and there are three other teams within 2.5 games. (Two if you leave out the Mets, like most Mets fans do.)
The Dodgers are a lock for the playoffs.
Even if you're not a fan of either team, tonight's pitching matchup should be fun to watch. Jair Jurrjens, who leads all MLB starters in avoiding home runs on pitches over the heart of the plate, goes up against Chad Billingsley, who through July 10th had the fourth-best curve ball in the majors based on whiffs per swing.
* I really don't understand this number, as Billingsley's never posted a FIP this low during his career.
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Big game for the Braves tonight, they need to keep winning series (after losing to the marlins) to make up ground in the playoff race. It’s not really all that important to the dodgers though i’m sure they’d like to see billingsley get back on track. It’s an interesting matchup because the dodgers are a power hitting team with manny, kemp, and ethier but jurrjens just doesn’t give up HR’s
by McCann's the Man on Aug 2, 2009 4:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
the less torre discussion the better
somehow, i’m not enthused
by royalsreview on Aug 2, 2009 6:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I want to know what is wrong with him that he hates Kemp.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 2, 2009 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Regarding Billingsley's FIP
ZIPS projects 29 walks, 71 K’s and 5 homers allowed in 74 innings. Those numbers are about the same as his 08 season; however the league specific factor is a lot lower (3.12 this year vs. 3.21 last year). That’s why his FIP is a lot lower, even though he isn’t projected to do that much better.
Actually, calculating Billingsly projected FIP with the 3.12 addition, leads to 3.25; so I have no idea what FanGraphs is doing.
F*** Billy Beane... actually, I kinda like Holliday
by vivaelpujols on Aug 2, 2009 8:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I still don't think much of the LaRoche trade.
by R.J. Anderson on Aug 2, 2009 8:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It's kinda just crap for crap
F*** Billy Beane... actually, I kinda like Holliday
by vivaelpujols on Aug 2, 2009 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sometimes you just make a trade for the sake of it
and get sick of looking at someone be mediocre.
by Daniel Berlyn on Aug 2, 2009 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Meh.
Kotchman allows the Sox to keep the equivalent of Youk’s glove at 1B if he has to play 3B.
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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 2, 2009 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And the equivilent of Nick Green's bat
F*** Billy Beane... actually, I kinda like Holliday
by vivaelpujols on Aug 2, 2009 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Meh.
I’d rather we play to our strength in run prevention. Didn’t someone on here just prove that to be the best strategy?
Plus, he’s a decent OBP guy. That’s all we need.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 2, 2009 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll be around later
Any PFX questions on tonight’s pitchers?
by Harry Pavlidis on Aug 2, 2009 8:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
no...
but if you want to look at something that I feel is interesting, check out Jon Niese. Namely, his completely release point for his curveball and the affect it has on his pitching. It’s being heavily debated in Met blogger land. I’m of the opinion that it’s totally disastrous for him. Both in the sense that it “gives away” that it’s a curve, and also that the release point makes the flight path of his curveball totally unique in regards to his other pitches, so it never appears to be a fastball.
by firejerrymanuel on Aug 2, 2009 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't mean to betray my ignorance
But I really just don’t get how the Dodgers are this good. It seems like they’ve won an inordinate amount of toss-up games. Plus they’ve gotten insane bullpen work, which is pretty capricious.
I don’t know, for being called a powerhouse, they don’t scare me at all. Anyone else agree? No?
I’ll be quiet…
by firejerrymanuel on Aug 2, 2009 8:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
they are only two games better than their
Pythagorean W-L record. Seem to have solid offense, defense, pitching all around. Seem to pass sniff test for me.
godfather of futureredbirds.net
by erik on Aug 2, 2009 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
defense
is it really that good? ethier, hudson, manny?
and what’s up with hudson? when i see him play, it looks like has great range. but uzr has always KILLED him.
by firejerrymanuel on Aug 2, 2009 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ethier has been terrible according to UZR -16
Hudson hasn’t been good, either. Kemp has been great, Furcal has been good.
godfather of futureredbirds.net
by erik on Aug 2, 2009 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
eh, I take it back
their defense is average. -0.1 UZR for the season.
godfather of futureredbirds.net
by erik on Aug 2, 2009 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Extraordinary pitching then.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 2, 2009 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pierre was a nice surprise.
But they have no holes and bunch of All-Star caliber players. Manny, Kemp, Ethier, Hudson, Blake. CA, SS, 1B are no worse than average. Good rotation, very good bullpen.
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by Sky Kalkman on Aug 2, 2009 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have a feeling some team is going to make a big mistake on Loney when he hits free agency.
He’s average when he’s really on – he’s a poor fielding first baseman whose bat doesn’t really play at first.
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by Jack Moore on Aug 2, 2009 8:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
Has flashes of good-ness, but never amazing.
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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 2, 2009 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he'll have a nice power surge in the middle of his career
then regress.
by Daniel Berlyn on Aug 2, 2009 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Weird, SB Nation is high on him...
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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 2, 2009 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he's only 25 and already making a lot of improvements in K/BB.
He’s shown the ability to hit for power in the past and I think he just needs to get a little more comfortable taking big swings before he puts it together for a while. I don’t think he’ll ever be a huge home run guy though.
by Daniel Berlyn on Aug 2, 2009 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know, just weird to read a scouting report that doesn't seem to agree with most of the accounts on here...
“burgeoning” power and a good glove, AS capable?
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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 2, 2009 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good glove has no basis though.
This is his first significant season in which he’s had a positive UZR, and it’s still roughly average. Taking a -12.5 hit defensively every 700 PAs means you have to be a significantly good hitter, which I just don’t see out of Loney.
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by Jack Moore on Aug 2, 2009 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Neither do I.
Who writes the scouting reports on SBN?
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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 2, 2009 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Their from the SBN stats provider, not generated by any part of SBN.
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by Sky Kalkman on Aug 2, 2009 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm...
Any idea who that is? Or should I ask someone on Blog Huddle?
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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 2, 2009 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Steve Phillips used DER earlier\
F*** Billy Beane... actually, I kinda like Holliday
by vivaelpujols on Aug 2, 2009 8:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
you mean?
he said durrrrr and started drooling on himself?
by firejerrymanuel on Aug 2, 2009 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know it's early
but didn’t I say the Holliday trade would not be regretted? How’s the outlook so far from the drones of Cards fans jumping off cliffs after losing their untouchable prospect?
by Daniel Berlyn on Aug 2, 2009 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Still kinda early, no?
I mean, it’s not like Sox fans are begging for Lugo to come back.
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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 2, 2009 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
right
but people forgot how good Holliday was. His numbers are all of a sudden right where they should be.
by Daniel Berlyn on Aug 2, 2009 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True.
Just saying, it still could turn out badly. Seems kinda A’s-favored right now
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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 2, 2009 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Holliday trade was terrible
I really don’t know how you don’t see that. Even if Holliday bats .500 the rest of the year, it would still be bad from our perspective.
F*** Billy Beane... actually, I kinda like Holliday
by vivaelpujols on Aug 2, 2009 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really don't understand that perspective
there’s so much to be gained by Holliday’s presence. He obviously won’t keep up his pace but if you’re going by WAR he’s already produced about a WAR for the Cardinals. In a half season he might be worth more than the return package combined for the Cardinals depending on how far they go and how much money they make off him. If they re-sign him, it’s gold.
by Daniel Berlyn on Aug 2, 2009 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Neftali Feliz' call-up makes me remember ..
how badly the Braves got killed in that trade.
Feliz, Elvis Andrus, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Matt Harrison and Beau Jones for Ron Mahay and Mark Teixeira (thanks baseball cube)
by Harry Pavlidis on Aug 2, 2009 9:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Saltalamacchia was the centerpiece
it looked good at the time, though. Andrus is the one that hurts the most, IMO.
by Daniel Berlyn on Aug 2, 2009 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But Ron Mahay!
Looks like peanuts compared to Matt Holliday, though. I think I like the Phillies’ pickup of Lee a bit better, though. Sure, it’s more, but not three times more and they get him for three times as long. Yes, 2009 is higher leverage than 2010, most likely, for both teams, but yeah.
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by Sky Kalkman on Aug 2, 2009 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right, I still don't get why the Holliday deal is so looked down upon for the Cardinals.
In hindsight, the Rangers were giving up a good hitting poor fielding catching prospect, back-end fodder and three high-upside players unlikely to reach their potential. To be fair, we don’t know what Feliz will be. I think the fact that all they got when the flipped him was Kotchman was the real mistake.
by Daniel Berlyn on Aug 2, 2009 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doesn't BBRef have that info too?
And links to the the Uni’s.
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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 2, 2009 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
KEMP
Torre’s going to say he didn’t hit far enough.
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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 2, 2009 9:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Billingsley
4.2 2 0 0 0 8
pretty narsty so far
by Tommy Bennett on Aug 2, 2009 9:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yep.
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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 2, 2009 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is it just me or has Jason Schmidt lost some weight?
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by Jack Moore on Aug 2, 2009 10:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Quite possible
I never really noticed how remarkable his improvements were considering the ages of his peak. His K/9 jumped up by about three a year when he hit the age when pitchers start to decline.
by Daniel Berlyn on Aug 2, 2009 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Billingsley out with an apparent knee issue. Anybody notice anything that might have set it off?
by Tommy Bennett on Aug 2, 2009 10:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
hyperextended his knee in the fifth
then proceeded to rack up two more strikeouts IIRC. Argued with Torre about going back out with the sixth. It was precautionary.
by Daniel Berlyn on Aug 2, 2009 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nope.
I have officially lost control of my TV’s remote. That happens when you’re the only guy left in the house.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 2, 2009 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cramped hamstring for Bills.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 2, 2009 10:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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