Beyond the Boxscore Power Rankings
This Week's Movers
The only change this week in terms of our on-paper playof leaders is that the Phillies unseated the Braves from their one-week stint at the top of the NL East. The Braves actually had the better week from the standpoint of wins, but the component statistics that are the basis of our rankings pushed the Phillies to the top. In reality, it's effectively tied--they're only separated by a 0.003 winning percentage. As mentioned in the comments last week, the Marlins may be closer to the Phillies in the actual standings, but both actual and estimated runs show that they've been outscored on the season. So far, they're hanging in there, but my feeling is that if anyone is going to close the gap, it'll be the Braves. They're going to have to make up some ground real quick, though...
Another mismatch occurs in the AL Central, where the White Sox are currently three games behind the Tigers in the actual standings. The BtB Power Rankings, on the other hand, has the White Sox up to #5 (expected W% in the AL of 0.538), while the Tigers lag behind at #15 (eW%lg of 0.481). If component statistics give you a better idea of a team's true talent level than their actual runs scored and allowed, the Tigers may be a bit of an overperformer thus far. Their wRC is 17 runs shy of their actual runs scored total. Similarly, their estimated runs allowed, based on tRA, is 20 runs higher than their actual total. As a result, while their PythagoPat record is 0.514 (essentially the same as the White Sox'), their estimated W% in the AL is just 0.481.
I thought it was also worth mentioning that the Holliday-lacking Athletics have climbed all the way to #16 in our rankings, largely on the backs of their pitching staff. I have their staff at a 4.16 tRA, and a 4.29 FIP. At 20 games behind the Angels, they're not going anywhere this season. But Beane has assembled a nice, young, cheap core of a pitching staff. If only they could find some offense...