John Smoltz: What's Left in the Tank?

by Harry Pavlidis on Aug 18, 2009 5:41 PM EDT in Pitch f/x Goodies

John Smoltz is now a free-agent. Will he retire or get a job in someone's bullpen? If someone does pick him up, what's he got left?

Not much, I'm afraid.

From the land of small samples ...

2009 fastball

lost speed compared to 2007 & 2008
less whiffs
more flies, less grounders
more homers

2009 slider

less sluttery than the 2007 & 2008 version
more strikes
less whiffs
more flies, less pop-ups

2009 splitter

same pitch as 2007 & 2008
less whiffs
more strikes
more liners, no homers

2009 curveball

same pitch as 2007 & 2008
more strikes
still a good whiff rate
still not put in play much

Smoltz' speed plot is somewhat depressing, and his run values per 100 pitches doesn't look any better.

In this plot time is on the x-axis (not labeled). You can see the gap between 2008 and 2009 when he wasn't piching.

Fenway has been reading high for pitch speed this year, so what you see above for 2009 may be an optimistic view of Smoltz' velocity range.

Again, small samples bring their noise to the run values, but Smoltz has been getting killed by his fastball. Does that sound like something you want hanging around in your favorite contender's bullpen?

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I found that Smoltz can still be useful if he’s used out of the bullpen as a ROOGY. When he gets ahead in the count, he’s actually decent; it just seems like he’s getting killed early in the count and in hitters’ counts.

chuckle sluttery…

Heh.

Crashburn Alley

by Crashburn Alley on Aug 18, 2009 5:53 PM EDT reply actions

His breaking pitches are still OK

But he’s not going to get ahead often with that fastball. ROOGY is a possibility, and we’ll probably find out.

by Harry Pavlidis on Aug 18, 2009 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions

I know his strikeouts are down

But he’s still getting major leaguers out on strikes (of course, the small sample size alert works for my statement as well). Harry, are the whiff rate decreases for his other pitches really bad, or slight? Also, is it safe to say he’s sitting high 80’s-low 90’s, or is it more like just low 90’s?

I ask because my favorite team is contemplating him. Of course, I’d say he might still be better than the other options we have at fifth starter.

Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog

by SFiercex4 on Aug 18, 2009 6:03 PM EDT reply actions

Whiff rates

Fastball
0.110
0.133
0.088

Slider
0.422
0.397
0.306

Splitter
0.288
0.200
0.161

Curve
0.328
0.500
0.467

And he looks to be sitting low 90s, just not cracking the 95 barrier anymore

by Harry Pavlidis on Aug 18, 2009 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions

How do those compare to the league averate rate?

SIGN JOHN SMOLTZ

by vivaelpujols on Aug 18, 2009 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Holy crap Harry!!!

You completely stole my post idea!!

Also, RV/100 is not adjusted for BABIP or HR/FB luck, of which Smoltz has gotten really screwed on this year.

SIGN JOHN SMOLTZ

by vivaelpujols on Aug 18, 2009 6:09 PM EDT reply actions

Also, comparing him to his 07-08 version of himself isn't a great idea

Because in 07 and 08, his aggregate FIP was just over 3.00! Obviously, nobody expects him to be that good. If he can be a 4.00 FIP pitcher, that sounds just dandy.

SIGN JOHN SMOLTZ

by vivaelpujols on Aug 18, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions

using an alternate method

shows you’re right, but the trend remains (and this method tends to be skewed a fraction of a run in the pitcher’s favor, so don’t make too much of the differences)

based on batted ball types and park adjusted

Fastball
-0.71
-0.69
-0.27

Splitter
-1.66
-0.26
-0.09

Slider
-3.37
-4.63
-1.92

Curve
-1.93
-3.98
-0.89

by Harry Pavlidis on Aug 18, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions

So his numbers are still above average right?

SIGN JOHN SMOLTZ

by vivaelpujols on Aug 18, 2009 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions

running some baselines now

I’m pulling baselines by pitch type (my types, not gamedays) for rv100, whiff rate and the alternate rv100 based on batted ball types .. …. we’ll see how long it takes for my PC to cough that up.

by Harry Pavlidis on Aug 18, 2009 6:23 PM EDT reply actions

first set - whiffs

whiff rate
Fastballs, generic: .135
Fastball, sinkers: .114
Fastball, four-seam: .149

Smoltz is below average

Sliders: .313

Smoltz has fallen just below league average

Curves: .277

Smoltz has a veryy good whiff rate

Splitters: .278

Smoltz is well below average

by Harry Pavlidis on Aug 18, 2009 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions

second set - rv100

Fastball, generic: .179
Fastball, sinker: .039
Fastball, four-seam: .171

Slider: -.806
Curve: -.345
Splitter: .070

by Harry Pavlidis on Aug 18, 2009 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions

third set - alternate rv100

Fastball, generic: -0.001
Fastball, sinker: 0.022
Fastball, four-seam: -0.079

Slider: -0.752
Curve: -0.230
Splitter: -0.075

so he’s above average, for the most part. interesting.

by Harry Pavlidis on Aug 18, 2009 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Well his xFIP is 4.32

He’s been pitching pretty well.

SIGN JOHN SMOLTZ

by vivaelpujols on Aug 18, 2009 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions

harry, smoltz has a very dramatic platoon split that he didn't used to have.

.649 ops against RHB/ 1.248 ops against LHB.

Has he lost some of the horizontal movement on his fastball or splitter that they once had? is this just noise in the sample?

the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus

by tom s. on Aug 18, 2009 6:43 PM EDT reply actions

Smoltz has a .466 BABIP against lefties

SIGN JOHN SMOLTZ

by vivaelpujols on Aug 18, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions

he also has a K/BB rate of 10.5 against rhb, and 1.71 against lhb.

it’s not all babip.

the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus

by tom s. on Aug 18, 2009 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Which is also a small sample.

Batter handedness splits like that need a LOT more data to be meaningful than I think most people appreciate. At this point that data is practically meaningless.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Aug 18, 2009 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions