John Smoltz: What's Left in the Tank?
John Smoltz is now a free-agent. Will he retire or get a job in someone's bullpen? If someone does pick him up, what's he got left?
Not much, I'm afraid.
From the land of small samples ...
2009 fastball
- lost speed compared to 2007 & 2008
- less whiffs
- more flies, less grounders
- more homers
2009 slider
- less sluttery than the 2007 & 2008 version
- more strikes
- less whiffs
- more flies, less pop-ups
2009 splitter
- same pitch as 2007 & 2008
- less whiffs
- more strikes
- more liners, no homers
2009 curveball
- same pitch as 2007 & 2008
- more strikes
- still a good whiff rate
- still not put in play much
Smoltz' speed plot is somewhat depressing, and his run values per 100 pitches doesn't look any better.
In this plot time is on the x-axis (not labeled). You can see the gap between 2008 and 2009 when he wasn't piching.
Fenway has been reading high for pitch speed this year, so what you see above for 2009 may be an optimistic view of Smoltz' velocity range.
Again, small samples bring their noise to the run values, but Smoltz has been getting killed by his fastball. Does that sound like something you want hanging around in your favorite contender's bullpen?
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I found that Smoltz can still be useful if he’s used out of the bullpen as a ROOGY. When he gets ahead in the count, he’s actually decent; it just seems like he’s getting killed early in the count and in hitters’ counts.
chuckle sluttery…
Heh.
by Crashburn Alley on Aug 18, 2009 5:53 PM EDT reply actions
His breaking pitches are still OK
But he’s not going to get ahead often with that fastball. ROOGY is a possibility, and we’ll probably find out.
by Harry Pavlidis on Aug 18, 2009 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I know his strikeouts are down
But he’s still getting major leaguers out on strikes (of course, the small sample size alert works for my statement as well). Harry, are the whiff rate decreases for his other pitches really bad, or slight? Also, is it safe to say he’s sitting high 80’s-low 90’s, or is it more like just low 90’s?
I ask because my favorite team is contemplating him. Of course, I’d say he might still be better than the other options we have at fifth starter.
Whiff rates
Fastball
0.110
0.133
0.088
Slider
0.422
0.397
0.306
Splitter
0.288
0.200
0.161
Curve
0.328
0.500
0.467
And he looks to be sitting low 90s, just not cracking the 95 barrier anymore
by Harry Pavlidis on Aug 18, 2009 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions
How do those compare to the league averate rate?
SIGN JOHN SMOLTZ
by vivaelpujols on Aug 18, 2009 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Holy crap Harry!!!
You completely stole my post idea!!
Also, RV/100 is not adjusted for BABIP or HR/FB luck, of which Smoltz has gotten really screwed on this year.
SIGN JOHN SMOLTZ
Also, comparing him to his 07-08 version of himself isn't a great idea
Because in 07 and 08, his aggregate FIP was just over 3.00! Obviously, nobody expects him to be that good. If he can be a 4.00 FIP pitcher, that sounds just dandy.
SIGN JOHN SMOLTZ
by vivaelpujols on Aug 18, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions
using an alternate method
shows you’re right, but the trend remains (and this method tends to be skewed a fraction of a run in the pitcher’s favor, so don’t make too much of the differences)
based on batted ball types and park adjusted
Fastball
-0.71
-0.69
-0.27
Splitter
-1.66
-0.26
-0.09
Slider
-3.37
-4.63
-1.92
Curve
-1.93
-3.98
-0.89
by Harry Pavlidis on Aug 18, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
So his numbers are still above average right?
SIGN JOHN SMOLTZ
by vivaelpujols on Aug 18, 2009 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions
running some baselines now
I’m pulling baselines by pitch type (my types, not gamedays) for rv100, whiff rate and the alternate rv100 based on batted ball types .. …. we’ll see how long it takes for my PC to cough that up.
first set - whiffs
whiff rate
Fastballs, generic: .135
Fastball, sinkers: .114
Fastball, four-seam: .149
Smoltz is below average
Sliders: .313
Smoltz has fallen just below league average
Curves: .277
Smoltz has a veryy good whiff rate
Splitters: .278
Smoltz is well below average
by Harry Pavlidis on Aug 18, 2009 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions
second set - rv100
Fastball, generic: .179
Fastball, sinker: .039
Fastball, four-seam: .171
Slider: -.806
Curve: -.345
Splitter: .070
by Harry Pavlidis on Aug 18, 2009 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions
third set - alternate rv100
Fastball, generic: -0.001
Fastball, sinker: 0.022
Fastball, four-seam: -0.079
Slider: -0.752
Curve: -0.230
Splitter: -0.075
so he’s above average, for the most part. interesting.
by Harry Pavlidis on Aug 18, 2009 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Well his xFIP is 4.32
He’s been pitching pretty well.
SIGN JOHN SMOLTZ
by vivaelpujols on Aug 18, 2009 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions
harry, smoltz has a very dramatic platoon split that he didn't used to have.
.649 ops against RHB/ 1.248 ops against LHB.
Has he lost some of the horizontal movement on his fastball or splitter that they once had? is this just noise in the sample?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Smoltz has a .466 BABIP against lefties
SIGN JOHN SMOLTZ
by vivaelpujols on Aug 18, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions
he also has a K/BB rate of 10.5 against rhb, and 1.71 against lhb.
it’s not all babip.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Which is also a small sample.
Batter handedness splits like that need a LOT more data to be meaningful than I think most people appreciate. At this point that data is practically meaningless.
Forget bullpen
The Cardinals are going to use him as their 5th starter. That probably makes Harry happy.
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