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Why Javier Vazquez Is Baseball's Invisible Man

Atlanta Braves' Javier Vazquez pitches to the Florida Marlins in baseball game action Thursday, July 30, 2009, in Miami.  (AP Photo/J Pat Carter)

More photos » by J Pat Carter - AP

3 months ago: Atlanta Braves' Javier Vazquez pitches to the Florida Marlins in baseball game action Thursday, July 30, 2009, in Miami. (AP Photo/J Pat Carter)

Javier Vazquez is just waiting to be the answer to a Jayson Stark trivia question. Flying under the radar for the better part of a decade, Vazquez is more known to the common baseball fan as the guy Ozzie Guillen called out for "not a big game pitcher" than he is for being an above average starter. I'll admit, I've taken Vazquez for granted as a just another good pitcher, but never thought of him as one of  the game's better and most consistent starters; I am rethinking that now.

Find out what Vazquez and Roy Halladay have in common after the jump...

Star-divide

Vazquez is having a fantastic 2009 with the Atlanta Braves although many people may not realize that outside of our internet basement community. With a 10-7 record, Vazquez has not grabbed many headlines, however, you can make a legit case for him being the NL's best pitcher not named Tim Lincecum. His 2.62 FIP is second best in the NL behind Lincecum's freakish 1.96, and third in the majors behind Lincecum and Zack Grienke (his xFIP is also second to Lincecum in the majors). His sensational K/BB of 5.34 is actually ahead of Lincecum and Grienke, and ranks third best in baseball behind Dan Haren and Roy Halladay. He is the only NL pitcher outside of Lincecum to rank in the top five in FIP, tRA, tRA*and xFIP.

While Javier Vazquez is his having arguably his best season in 2009, being really good is nothing new for him. He's always been a really good, but never quite great pitcher. The tools have always been there, but the overall results have not. His peripherals, however, have always been ace-like. In eight of the last 10 seasons, he has posted a sub 3.86 FIP or better. In fact, over the last decade, he has just one year with an FIP greater than 4.06. Of course, this was in 2004 as a member of the New York Yankees and Vazquez was actually named an All-Star. Since 2006, Vazquez has posted a WAR of 4.8 or higher in each of the last four seasons including a 5.0 already in 2009. I started to think, how many pitchers can say they've posted at least four and a half wins above replacement in each of the last four seasons?

Here are the 4.5 WAR starting pitchers for each of the last four seasons

2009

2008

2007

2006

Lincecum

Sabathia

Sabathia

J.Santana

Greinke

Halladay

Webb

Webb

Halladay

Lincecum

Beckett

Bonderman

Verlander

Lee

Peavy

Lackey

Vazquez

Haren

Halladay

Smoltz

Lee

Webb

Blanton

Oswalt

Beckett

E. Santana

Lackey

Halladay

Lester

Burnett

Smoltz

Schilling

Haren

Mussina

Bedard

Sabathia

Danks

Hudson

Harang

Lester

Kazmir

Mussina

Dempster

Escobar

Carpenter

Beckett

Vazquez

Millwood

Vazquez

Harang

Bedard

Meche

Haren

Vazquez

Cook

Oswalt

Wang

J. Santana

Santana

Escobar

Greinke

Pettitte

Lowe

Buerhle

Westbrook

Sheets

Jennings

Hamels

Billingsley

 

Repeat offenders are in bold. As you go down each season you'll see the bold names get fewer and fewer until we reach 2006 and only two names are left: Roy Halladay and Javier Vazquez. The streaks ends right there as Halladay narrowly missed 4.5 WAR in 2005; he posted a human-like 4.4. This is not to say Vazquez is as good as Halladay by any means, but it goes to show that being that good year to year like that is not easy. Despite these numbers, Vazquez is not among the games most revered names. And when he was traded this offseason, people hardly batted an eye.

Kenny Williams has made some decent moves recently, however, his trade of Vazquez remains questionable. Sure, Tyler Flowers looks to be like the heir apparent to A.J. Pierzynski, but Flowers was pretty much trade bait in the Braves system with Brian McCann at the back stop. Brett Lillibridge is a replacement level player and the other two players, Jon Gilmore and Santos Rodriguez, way too young to project. Of course, one season isn't enough to base a trade's grade on, but while the White Sox went out to buy a pitcher at the deadline, they could've had Vazquez all along.

The Braves will pay Vazquez a combined  $23 million dollars in 2009 and 2010. With his 5.0 WAR this season, Vazquez has already given them $22.6 million of production in return. If he can put up another 4.5+ WAR in 2010, and there's no reason to think he won't, he will probably double his salary with production. Despite being the owner of a 6.0 WAR season (2003), Vazquez has never really gotten much attention. As mentioned above he's been an all-star just once and has finished in the top 10 of the Cy Young voting as many times as Sky Kalkman, R.J, Anderson and myself; zero. Vazquez has always had the potential to pitch like an ace; this year he's doing it and I'm still afraid no one is noticing.

1 recs  |  Comment 13 comments |

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great post

I always thought Vazquez was one of those pitchers whose peripherals always looked better than his ERA.

As a quick aside, Halladay’s 4.4 wins in 2005 came in 19 starts. Imagine what he could have done if he was a little better at avoiding line-drives.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Aug 12, 2009 9:54 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Looking at career through age 32...

I took a peek through the top500 WAR list to see who looks most similar through age 32… The only HoFer [that I could find] that looks very similar to Vazquez through age 32 is Don Sutton.

And as we know, Sutton continued for a really long time, which I’ll guess is fairly unlikely for Vazquez.

I’m looking as I write this, so I also came across Early Wynn— through age 32, JV is pretty far ahead, but Wynn had three of his best years from age 34 to 36, so here are Sutton and Wynn through 36, with Vazuez through a projected 32, to see where he needs to get to over the next four years to stay in line with them:

He needs four years of 3.5-4.5 WAR to keep up with Sutton [and then keep pitching into his 40s]; or a monster year, plus a couple 1-3 WAR years to keep up with Wynn [and then hang around a few more years].

by erosen on Aug 12, 2009 10:04 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think the reason Vazquez is underrated

is most of his success has been in smaller markets, while his one year in NYC was pretty much a disaster. He was lights-out in Montreal, pretty good in Arizona, good with the White Sox, and has been great for the Braves this year. The only one of those which is a big market is Chicago, and there he was overshadowed by the rest of the team. Maybe he just does better with the spotlight elsewhere. He certainly wouldnt be the first

"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
"That was a great pick...if this was 2002" Me, to guy who selected Barry Zito in a fantasy draft
www.27ClubPeak.blogspot.com

by harendaman365 on Aug 12, 2009 10:19 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think his success may have something to do with the fact that he isn't in a hitter's park for the first time in years

I can tell you why he’s perceived as less than great by fans and I guess media, however

-He gives up a ton of HRs, especially with men on
-He falls apart with men on
-Falls apart in high leverage situations
-Couldn’t really beat good teams consistently
-And yes, he has been completely murdered in his brief playoff stints.

These are the things that separates a guy like Halladay from him.

So while he’s been consistent over the course of a few years, and worth more than he’s been paid, he won’t get recognition until he does something in a pressure situation, where he visibly crumbles.

by Daniel Berlyn on Aug 12, 2009 1:22 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Halladay hasn't been in the playoffs yet...

And Vazquez’s FIP is pretty low still, like Tommy said. Same thing with tRA, tRA* and xFIP.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 12, 2009 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Come on, that's a leap there

We all know Halladay isn’t at blame for no playoff appearances. Javy Dent is underrated by people who call him mentally soft, or lacking “balls”, but I think most Sox fans who watched him for 3 seasons properly appreciated him. I’m happy he’s doing well in Atlanta, but I wonder if he was traded to the Cubs, Phillies, or any other big market with big expectations just how dominant he’d be, even in the inferior league.

The Chicago Bulls.....the more profitable Los Angeles Clippers.

by Ozzie Montana on Aug 12, 2009 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Halladay is known as someone who excels when needed.

Javier isn’t. I think we all knew he is capable of dominating, and he often did, but he never seemed to be able to at the right time.

by Daniel Berlyn on Aug 13, 2009 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Atlanta is the perfect spot for him. We Braves fan in general aren’t rabid and turn on our players after a few poor outings, Javy excels in lower pressure situations. Management should talk extension with him as I think he can post 3-4 years of 4.5+ WAR.
As for explaining the gap between peripherals and other stats such as ERA, I’ve read that his stats out of the windup are HOF worthy but his stats from the stretch are largely average. That would explain why he gives up the big inning from time to time. I don’t want to really do the research to back up the claim but I do think it could be the reason

by McCann's the Man on Aug 14, 2009 3:24 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

....

He sucks in the playoffs and in big time pressure games.

by gatoralex911 on Aug 18, 2009 11:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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