BtB Power Rankings: Through Tuesday, July 7th 2009

Welcome to our weekly ranking of all the MLB teams!  In this ranking, we use aggregate team hitting, pitching, and fielding statistics--not team wins, losses, runs scored, or runs allowed--to evaluate the performance of teams to date.  You can think of the estimated winning percentage (eW%) below as how we'd expect teams to fall out if we threw teams with these aggregate statistics into one big league and let them battle it out for thousands of games.

The table is sortable if you click in the header.  All data are park-adjusted when possible.  A legend is below the table, followed by commentary. There is also a table comparing actual vs. expected run scored and run allowed totals, as well as actual vs. expected winning percentages.  Methods note: as per our discussion last week, I've scaled back the league adjustment a tad--there was a slight amount of double dipping going on.  As you'll see, it doesn't make much of a difference.  The "Chg" column below is based on re-rolled rankings last week vs. this week.

BtB Power Rankings: Through Tuesday, July 7th 2009

Rank Chg Team wOBA eRS tRA tRns Fld eRA eW%lg LgAdj eW%
1 0 TB 0.357 472 4.74 388 22.1 366 0.619 10.5 0.642
2 0 NYA 0.362 491 4.82 399 0.4 398 0.602 10.3 0.624
3 0 BOS 0.341 424 4.18 344 -14.7 358 0.580 10.3 0.604
4 +1 LAN 0.335 415 4.12 346 13.9 332 0.604 -10.3 0.579
5 -1 TOR 0.337 427 4.62 394 8.9 385 0.550 10.6 0.574
6 0 CHA 0.324 363 4.06 330 -3.3 333 0.540 10.3 0.567
7 +4 LAA 0.343 419 5.05 407 -3.5 410 0.510 10.2 0.534
8 +2 TEX 0.334 389 4.98 406 21.0 385 0.506 10.2 0.531
9 0 MIN 0.334 406 4.68 389 -13.0 402 0.505 10.5 0.530
10 -3 COL 0.322 366 3.97 324 -2.0 326 0.554 -10.3 0.526
11 -3 DET 0.328 375 4.81 391 15.8 375 0.500 10.3 0.525
12 +4 PHI 0.342 423 4.97 404 3.4 401 0.526 -10.1 0.502
13 -1 CLE 0.339 427 5.20 430 -21.7 451 0.473 10.5 0.496
14 +1 SEA 0.317 347 4.83 399 21.4 378 0.461 10.3 0.488
15 +7 ATL 0.319 361 4.07 337 -15.3 352 0.511 -10.3 0.484
16 -3 KC 0.314 332 4.32 351 -14.6 365 0.456 10.3 0.483
17 -3 MIL 0.332 393 4.97 404 15.5 388 0.506 -10.3 0.481
18 +1 ARI 0.311 348 4.17 354 8.4 346 0.503 -10.5 0.475
19 +2 STL 0.324 372 4.46 374 1.9 372 0.500 -10.6 0.474
20 -3 BAL 0.327 378 4.83 397 -27.5 424 0.445 10.5 0.470
21 +2 CHN 0.310 331 4.22 342 1.4 340 0.487 -10.1 0.459
22 -4 NYN 0.327 377 4.66 378 -15.1 393 0.481 -10.2 0.455
23 +1 OAK 0.306 316 4.42 361 -9.7 371 0.427 10.2 0.454
24 -4 PIT 0.322 364 4.93 402 21.4 381 0.479 -10.5 0.453
25 0 SF 0.306 313 4.26 348 13.9 334 0.470 -10.3 0.442
26 0 FLA 0.322 373 4.70 397 -14.8 412 0.454 -10.6 0.428
27 0 HOU 0.318 352 4.81 396 -2.7 399 0.440 -10.2 0.415
28 0 CIN 0.309 330 4.88 403 19.7 384 0.431 -10.2 0.405
29 0 WAS 0.327 381 5.28 423 -22.1 445 0.425 -10.1 0.402
30 0 SD 0.317 349 5.07 421 -9.0 430 0.402 -10.3 0.377

Offense = wOBA (park-corrected), eRS (estimated runs scored; wRC from FanGraphs, then park adjusted)
Pitching = tRA and tRns are a home-brew version of Graham MacAree's statistic.
Fielding = Fld: average of bUZR (from FanGraphs) and THT's batted balls statistic (converted to runs)
eRA (estimated runs allowed) = Pitching - Fielding
eW%lg = estimated winning percentage within the specific league (AL or NL)
LgAdj = league adjustment (bonus to AL teams, penalty to NL teams, because the AL has superior level of play)
eW% = estimated winning percentage if all teams were in one league (after league adjustment)
Methods provided in more detail in the first post in this series

Team Leaders (asterisks indicate teams improving in specific ranking):

American League
Offense (wOBA): Yankees*, Rays, Angels*
Pitching (tRA): White Sox, Red Sox*, Royals
Fielding (Fld): Rays, Mariners*, Rangers

National League
Offense (wOBA): Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers
Pitching (tRA): Rockies, Braves, Dodgers
Fielding (Fld): Pirates, Reds, Brewers

"On Paper" Playoff Leaders (asterisks indicate new leaders):

American League: E=Rays, C=White Sox, W=Angels*, WC=Yankees
National League: E=Phillies, C=Brewers, W=Dodgers, WC=Rockies

This Week's Movers:

The Angels moved up four spots, wrested the lead in the AL West while simultaneously appearing for the first time among the AL's top three offenses.  In reality, they've won 10 of their last 14...but unfortunately for The Singing Cowboy's team, 3 of the four losses have come at the hands of the Rangers, who are playing nearly as well.  As a result, they are currently tied in the actual standings--and playing tonight!

The Phillies surged up the rankings this week, largely on the back of their record-breaking ass-kick of my Reds on July 6.  Meanwhile, their principle threat for much of the year--the Mets--are in a freefall, losing 9 of their last 11 and falling to 22nd on our list.  But wait--the Braves surged this week through the 0.500 teams, picking up seven spots and are now just 3 spots behind the Phillies.  The NL East seems as though it's becoming a battle between the Phillies' offense and the Braves' pitching...at least on paper.  In reality, the Marlins are in the mix as well, but our rankings don't think that team has played quite as well as their record indicates: they've scored 20 more runs then their wRC would predict.

Finally, it's worth noting that for the first time in weeks, the top four teams are not all in the AL East!  The Dodgers crept up a notch to 4th overall behind the again-slumping Blue Jays, who have gone 2-6 against their own division over the past 8 games.  Meanwhile, the Yankees are hot-hot-hot (again) and picked up some of the gains the Rays made last week in the rankings.

 

Actual vs Expected Performances

Below are actual vs expected winning percentages, runs scored, and runs allowed.  When a team's ranking deviates substantially from their actual performance (e.g. the Giants or Marlins), this table will hopefully help you see why.

Rank Team eW%lg PythW% TrueW% TrueRS ExpRS TrueRA ExpRA
1 TB 0.619 0.589 0.536 457 472 379 366
2 NYA 0.602 0.577 0.590 467 491 399 398
3 BOS 0.580 0.587 0.602 415 424 345 358
4 LAN 0.604 0.619 0.639 414 415 319 332
5 TOR 0.550 0.540 0.506 411 427 377 385
6 CHA 0.540 0.509 0.518 361 363 354 333
7 LAA 0.510 0.533 0.561 435 419 407 410
8 TEX 0.506 0.538 0.561 399 389 368 385
9 MIN 0.505 0.531 0.512 399 406 374 402
10 COL 0.554 0.539 0.530 379 366 349 326
11 DET 0.500 0.522 0.542 396 375 378 375
12 PHI 0.526 0.546 0.531 424 423 385 401
13 CLE 0.473 0.464 0.393 433 427 466 451
14 SEA 0.461 0.472 0.518 339 347 361 378
15 ATL 0.511 0.486 0.482 348 361 359 352
16 KC 0.456 0.417 0.434 328 332 393 365
17 MIL 0.506 0.502 0.518 387 393 385 388
18 ARI 0.503 0.451 0.417 350 348 390 346
19 STL 0.500 0.532 0.541 385 372 359 372
20 BAL 0.445 0.431 0.440 391 378 451 424
21 CHN 0.487 0.507 0.506 324 331 319 340
22 NYN 0.481 0.464 0.476 355 377 383 393
23 OAK 0.427 0.446 0.427 350 316 393 371
24 PIT 0.479 0.499 0.452 370 364 371 381
25 SF 0.470 0.558 0.554 342 313 300 334
26 FLA 0.454 0.474 0.506 393 373 415 412
27 HOU 0.440 0.456 0.488 344 352 379 399
28 CIN 0.431 0.446 0.500 331 330 373 384
29 WAS 0.425 0.379 0.296 350 381 452 445
30 SD 0.402 0.375 0.422 346 349 451 430
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