Attempting to measure the difference in leagues
by erosen on Jul 6, 2009 11:52 AM EDT
24 comments
Using the same retosheet gamelog data as before (2000-2008), I took all of the intraleague and interleague runs scored and allowed data and grouped it by year, home team league and visiting team league.
I then looked at the difference between runs scored and allowed based on whether the opponent was in the same league or not.
First, here are the runs scored and runs allowed differences between facing teams in your league versus the other.
Both numbers are set so that higher is better [RS is how many more runs per game you score in interleague play; RA is how many fewer runs you allow in interleague play].
To put it together, the final chart has the total RS+RA: 
The NL stacks up well from 2000 through 2004, but there was a HUGE change in 2005 that has sustained itself over the last four years [and from the 2009 records, I'd guess the gap is still pretty similar].
Perhaps the next thing to look at is what particular thing or things happened between 2004 and 2005 that would have caused a shift like this.
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I'm not quite sure how to read these.
Is the first graph saying that American League teams gave up about one run less against NL teams than AL teams in 2005 (the pink line)?
Why isn’t the last graph symmetrical? Because the run scoring environment of interleague games isn’t simply the average of the AL and NL environments?
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What the charts show:
Absolutely right.. Maybe the last one isn’t symetical because of the differences in league? Some of the blue line is going to be the inherent advantage for AL teams that have DHs on their roster, where the NL team is using it’s best PHer??
The whole "the American League has an advantage because of the DH" argument needs to be tested.
It’s a silly argument at the most basic level, because AL teams have to spend extra money or draft picks on DHs, meaning NL teams can put that money/opportunity into better non-DH players. And half the interleague games don’t use a DH anyways, giving NL teams an advantage because all their talent stays on the field.
Now, I’m open to there being more subtle arguments, arguments that might even be implied by such a simple statement, but I’m not seeing them. Could someone point them out to me, if they exist? And then can we devise a way to test them? I don’t want to prove it’s a bad argument, I want to find out if there really is an AL-advantage because of the DH rule or not.
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how does it give the NL an advantage to have
…“all their talent” on the field. The AL still has the best pinch hitter in that day’s game, with a DH on the bench. Would you rather have a great pinch hitter for 12 games a year, or someone like Brian Barden DH’ing for 12 games a year? I’ll take David Ortiz off of the bench (well, not this year) rather than the opposite.
But again, the NL teams should have an additional advantage.
Ortiz makes, what, $12M per year? If the Sox were an NL team, they wouldn’t give him that money. Or they’d put him at first, slide Youk to third, and ditch Lowell. Either way, that frees up a chunk of change. That chunk of change will change for each team, but it’s going to average what you’d pay an average player over a full season (DHs should, on average, be average – duh.) So maybe the chunk should average about $5M ($2.5M each for two WAR).
Anyway, NL teams won’t spend that additional money on a DH. They put it into a better starting pitcher or a better second baseman, or anything better that will contribute. In games in AL parks, that “anything better” will still be in the game. In games in NL parks, it’s also in the game, but the AL DH is relegated to pinch hitting. How is that not an advantage for NL teams?
As it works out, AL teams tend to spend more than NL teams, so both leagues spend about as much on non-DH’s and then the AL can also pay for decent DHs. That’s where the AL advantage lies (mostly, not completely) in the payroll and ability to pay better/more players. If the two leagues spent equally, the disparity would be much smaller. If all else were equal, does having the DH rule create an advantage? That’s the question we need to look at.
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But the two leagues don't spend differently...
otherwise, I could see an argument; but the way it is, currently, the difference is there, thus the AL advantage is there. (I hope the punctuation there was correct.)
What do you mean by "differently"?
On average, AL teams spend more than NL teams (or at least have for the recent few years, not sure about 2009).
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Sorry, differently
was supposed to say “equally” like you did in your post. Typing a little too quickly or something. My bad.
So you agree that the AL advantage is largely due to money, not the DL rule?
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by Sky Kalkman on Jul 10, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
I sort of agree
I think that the DL rule led to the money advantage out of necessity for the smaller market AL teams because the bigger market AL teams went balls to the wall and hired aging vets to hit like hell because they didn’t have to waste their aging legs on the field anymore.
My attempt at "how this happened"
I looked at ESPN’s Top 50 Free Agents List.
Carlos Beltran – stayed in NL
Adrian Beltre – NL to AL
Roger Clemens – stayed in NL
Edgar Renteria – NL to AL
Pedro Martinez – AL to NL
Carlos Delgado – stayed in NL
Magglio Ordonez – stayed in AL
Jason Veritek – stayed in AL
Carl Pavano – NL to AL
Richie Sexton – NL to AL
JD Drew – stayed in NL
Nomar Garciaparra – stayed in NL
Troy Glaus – AL to NL
Armando Benitez – stayed in NL
Steve Finley – NL to AL
Troy Percival – stayed in AL
Matt Clement – NL to AL
Orlando Cabrera – stayed in AL
Jeff Kent – stayed in NL
Moises Alou – stayed in NL
Odalis Perez – stayed in NL
Jaret Wright – NL to AL
Jermaine Dye – stayed in AL
Brad Radke – stayed in AL
Omar Vizquel – AL to NL
Russ Ortiz – stayed in NL
Matt Morris – stayed in NL
Vinny Castilla – stayed in NL
Placido Polanco – stayed in NL
Eric Milton – stayed in NL
Jon Lieber – AL to NL
Corey Koskie – stayed in AL
David Wells – NL to AL
Derek Lowe – AL to NL
Richard Hidalgo – NL to AL
Kris Benson – stayed in NL
Jeromy Burnitz – stayed in NL
Kevin Millwood – NL to AL
Christian Guzman – AL to NL
Tony Batista – Left MLB
Jose Valentin – AL to NL
Bob Wickman – stayed in AL
Esteban Loaiza – AL to NL
Orlando Hernandez – stayed in AL
Juan Gonzalez – stayed in AL (1 PA the following year)
Paul Wilson – stayed in NL
Tony Womack – NL to AL
Jose Lima – NL to AL
Paul Byrd – NL to AL
Steve Kline – NL to AL
So I know that this approach was not the greatest way to go about the research (probably), but it was the best I could come up with with the limited time I have this morning.
Out of the top 50 FA between ’04 and ’05, 1 went to the Japanese League (Tony Batista), 1 went on to have virtually zero impact (Juan Gonzalez), and 26 stayed in their same league. That leaves 22 players that changed leagues and made a difference (whether good or bad.)
NL to AL (14 players)
Adrian Beltre
Edgar Renteria
Carl Pavano
Richie Sexton
Steve Finley
Matt Clement
Jaret Wright
David Wells
Richard Hidalgo
Kevin Millwood
Tony Womack
Jose Lima
Paul Byrd
Steve Kline
AL to NL (8 players)
Pedro Martinez
Troy Glaus
Omar Vizquel
Jon Lieber
Derek Lowe
Christian Guzman
Jose Valentin
Esteban Loaiza
I'll leave that up to you...
you’re a bigger stat nerd than I am. :) (Errr…you’re much better at that sort of thing!)
Also would be good to look at the AL vs. NL rookie crop in or around 2005
Maybe some new talent arrived at about the same time.
Great job on the player list. This is a big puzzle.
-j
My blog: Basement-Dwellers.com
Also: Beyond the Boxscore
It seems like that would favor the NL
Hanley Ramirez, David Wright, Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, Tim Lincecum… etc.
Derosa.
At Howard's current salary, he's not an asset.
Yes, I’m a hater.
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UZR shows him as always being almost exactly average at 1B.
Eyeballing a pre-2009 projection puts him as a 4.0 WAR guy. This year he’s on pace for 3.5 WAR, which would match last year. At $4.5M per WAR, he’d be worth about $16M-$18M on the free agent market. He’s earning $15M this year, then $19M and $20M the next two seasons.
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2 runs in
Hanley Ramirez only had 2 PA in 2005, David Wright had 283 PA in 2004 so he was already present for nearly half the year, Ryan Howard was a true rookie that year playing 88 games (348 PA), Cole Hamels didn’t pitch until 2006, Tim Lincecum didn’t pitch until 2007.
I know JinAZ said “in or around 2005,” but for the difference between those two specific seasons it doesn’t help much.
Those up for rookie of the year from 2005 were:
AL: Huston Street, Robinson Cano, Jonny Gomes, Tadahito Iguchi, Gustavo Chacin, Joe Blanton, Nick Swisher, Jesse Crain, and Scott Kazmir
NL: Ryan Howard, Willy Taveras, Jeff Francouer, Garrett Atkins, Zach Duke, Jeff Francis, Richie Weeks, Clint Barmes, and Jason Vargas
I’d say that list would actually SLIGHTLY favor the AL from just that rookie class, but that’s just me.
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