Graph of the Day: Aroldis Chapman's Fastball
Cuban pitcher Aroldis Chapman raised eyebrows around the baseball world this spring. Pitching for the Cuban team in the World Baseball Classic, Chapman flashed an incredible fastball and some nasty secondary stuff, despite some poor results (6.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 K, 4 BB). Those who hadn't noticed Chapman prior to this year's classic were certainly struck when he hit 100 MPH on the gun in his start against Japan at Petco Park. Now, at age 21, he may be the most prized prospect in the world. Unfortunately, his aforementioned WBC appearance is all we have in the Pitch F/X database on him. Brooks Baseball's WBC database has Chapman's average fastball at 93.47 MPH, but thanks to Harry's great work on identifying pitches, we can throw out some pitches that were either splitters or changeups and come closer to how fast his actual fastball darts to the plate. Harry's data has the average Aroldis Chapman fastball at 94.6 MPH. Here's how it stacks up to Major League starters.
Based on Chapman's start from March, he would already have the 4th fastest pitch among starters. Not only are these pitches fast, but they are very, very effective at getting MLB batters out. Here's how the other 10 pitchers show stack up by Pitch Type Linear Weights, via FanGraphs
| Name | FB/100 |
| Josh Johnson | 1.37 |
| Justin Verlander | 1.23 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 1.19 |
| Edwin Jackson | 1.06 |
| Felix Hernandez | 0.99 |
| CC Sabathia | 0.95 |
| Josh Beckett | 0.57 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | 0.47 |
| Max Scherzer | -0.16 |
| A.J. Burnett | -0.91 |
| AVERAGE | 0.68 |
8 of these ten are in the top 35 among starting pitchers, and 6 are among the top 15. If Chapman's stuff lives up to its billing, we could be looking at one of the top starting pitchers for years to come.
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And his breaking pitch is uber nasty
More PFX from the WBC, both lead-off with Chapman
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/second-round-wbc-coverage/ (Kalk)
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/15/798267/cuba-pitchf-x (Me)
"Now, at age 21, he may be the most prized prospect in the world."
Are you getting him confused with a certain RHP who throws faster with location and obscene secondary stuff?
I'm guessing the other guy who's threatening to GO to Japan.
by Dan Turkenkopf on Jul 3, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Chapman
Chapman is certainly a very good prospect, but Darvish is putting up better numbers in Japan, which is a tougher league than the Cuban League.
KJOK

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