BtB Power Rankings: Through Tuesday, July 28th, 2009

Welcome to our weekly ranking of all the MLB teams!  In this ranking, we use aggregate team hitting, pitching, and fielding statistics--not team wins, losses, runs scored, or runs allowed--to evaluate the performance of teams to date.  You can think of the estimated winning percentage (eW%) below as how we'd expect teams to fall out if we threw teams with these aggregate statistics into one big league and let them battle it out for thousands of games.

The table is sortable if you click in the header.  All data are park-adjusted when possible.  A legend is below the table, followed by commentary. There is also a table comparing actual vs. expected run scored and run allowed totals, as well as actual vs. expected winning percentages.

BtB Power Rankings

Rank Chg Team wOBA eRS tRA tRns Fld eRA eW%lg LgAdj eW%
1 +1 NYA 0.362 586 4.77 474 0.1 474 0.603 12.4 0.626
2 -1 TB 0.351 547 4.70 465 19.7 446 0.597 12.6 0.621
3 0 BOS 0.338 492 4.01 392 -26.1 418 0.576 12.3 0.601
4 0 LAN 0.339 509 4.21 423 10.5 413 0.598 -12.4 0.573
5 +1 TOR 0.333 495 4.53 461 10.5 451 0.544 12.6 0.570
6 -1 CHA 0.323 439 4.07 402 -7.9 410 0.532 12.6 0.559
7 0 COL 0.327 454 3.84 377 -2.8 380 0.582 -12.4 0.554
8 +2 TEX 0.330 450 4.80 468 30.0 438 0.514 12.2 0.540
9 -1 LAA 0.349 527 5.21 509 -1.2 510 0.516 12.3 0.539
10 +2 PHI 0.344 518 4.82 478 9.9 468 0.549 -12.2 0.525
11 +2 ATL 0.327 460 4.04 401 -11.0 412 0.551 -12.4 0.524
12 +3 CLE 0.342 521 5.19 514 -15.7 530 0.492 12.6 0.515
13 -4 MIN 0.334 490 4.81 482 -18.9 501 0.490 12.6 0.514
14 -3 DET 0.324 431 4.85 470 17.3 453 0.477 12.3 0.503
15 +1 ARI 0.316 432 4.13 419 6.6 413 0.521 -12.6 0.494
16 +1 OAK 0.314 409 4.54 447 -6.3 454 0.452 12.3 0.479
17 +5 CHN 0.314 414 4.25 420 8.2 411 0.503 -12.2 0.476
18 0 BAL 0.325 442 4.82 468 -22.8 491 0.450 12.3 0.475
19 +1 STL 0.325 454 4.52 455 1.8 453 0.501 -12.8 0.475
20 -6 SEA 0.315 410 4.93 490 29.6 461 0.447 12.4 0.473
21 0 KC 0.312 391 4.33 420 -30.3 451 0.435 12.3 0.462
22 -3 MIL 0.332 473 5.27 516 16.9 499 0.475 -12.4 0.450
23 0 PIT 0.318 419 4.88 475 23.9 451 0.467 -12.4 0.440
24 +2 FLA 0.322 443 4.70 467 -10.2 477 0.465 -12.4 0.439
25 -1 HOU 0.324 442 4.77 475 -2.6 477 0.464 -12.4 0.439
26 -1 SF 0.301 361 4.22 416 23.4 392 0.464 -12.4 0.435
27 0 NYN 0.323 438 4.71 458 -20.6 479 0.458 -12.3 0.432
28 0 WAS 0.331 474 5.16 504 -24.7 528 0.448 -12.4 0.424
29 0 CIN 0.306 384 4.94 487 10.9 476 0.402 -12.3 0.377
30 0 SD 0.311 399 5.05 507 -18.7 526 0.372 -12.6 0.348

Offense = wOBA (park-corrected), eRS (estimated runs scored; wRC from FanGraphs, then park adjusted)
Pitching = tRA and tRns are a home-brew version of Graham MacAree's statistic.
Fielding = Fld: average of bUZR (from FanGraphs) and THT's batted balls statistic (converted to runs)
eRA (estimated runs allowed) = Pitching - Fielding
eW%lg = estimated winning percentage within the specific league (AL or NL)
LgAdj = league adjustment (bonus to AL teams, penalty to NL teams, because the AL has superior level of play)
eW% = estimated winning percentage if all teams were in one league (after league adjustment)
Methods provided in more detail in the first post in this series

Team Leaders (asterisks indicate teams improving in specific ranking):

American League
Offense (wOBA): Yankees, Rays, Angels
Pitching (tRA): Red Sox, White Sox, Royals
Fielding (Fld): Rangers*, Mariners, Rays

National League
Offense (wOBA): Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers
Pitching (tRA): Rockies, Braves, Diamondbacks
Fielding (Fld): Pirates, Giants, Brewers*

"On Paper" Playoff Leaders (asterisks indicate new leaders):

American League: E=Yankees*, C=White Sox, W=Rangers*, WC=Rays
National League: E=Phillies, C=Cubs*, W=Dodgers, WC=Rockies

This Week's Movers:

The big news this week is that we have a new overall leader, and a new leader in the AL East--the Yankees.  This is the first time the Yankees have led it all this year, and the first time anyone but the Rays were ranked on top since our June 9th update.  But the Yankees have lost only 7 games since June 24th, and while only a few of their wins have been genuine blowouts, they're basically having their way with the rest of baseball right now.  Best offense in the league (and probably baseball) and decent-to-above average fielding carry what has been a sub-par (for the AL, anyway) pitching staff.  All they need is Bronson Arroyo, and they're assured a pennant.

The Rangers and Cubs also took the on-paper lead in their respective divisions.  In reality, the Rangers and Angels are in a dead heat--a fraction of a run difference in their league adjustments is enough to reverse who is leading (Angels lead in eW%lg right now).  The Cubs, on the other had, put together a nice little winning streak (thanks in part to my Reds' suckitude, which is becoming a theme), while the Brewers seem to be imploding with three blowout losses in a row (which really hurt in these kinds of rankings).  The Cardinals held also gained slightly, and the extra few wins they'll get out of Holliday over the rest of the season puts them good position to expand their "real" lead and take the NL Central in our on-paper rankings by the end of September.

Another surging team this week are the Braves, which continue to gain ground against a hot Phillies team.  The Braves are essentially tied with the Phillies on paper at this point, which is the first time that has happened this year.  If anyone is going to challenge the Phillies' actual lead over the rest of the season, I think it's going to be the Francoeur-less Braves.

 

Actual vs Expected Performances

Below are actual vs expected winning percentages, runs scored, and runs allowed.  When a team's ranking deviates substantially from their actual performance (e.g. the Giants), this table will hopefully help you see the cause.

Rank Team eW%lg PythW% TrueW% TrueRS ExpRS TrueRA ExpRA
1 NYA 0.603 0.575 0.610 556 586 476 474
2 TB 0.597 0.568 0.545 531 547 461 446
3 BOS 0.576 0.582 0.586 487 492 408 418
4 LAN 0.598 0.600 0.620 502 509 405 413
5 TOR 0.544 0.543 0.485 482 495 440 451
6 CHA 0.532 0.500 0.505 440 439 440 410
7 COL 0.582 0.552 0.540 458 454 409 380
8 TEX 0.514 0.551 0.571 462 450 415 438
9 LAA 0.516 0.549 0.596 552 527 499 510
10 PHI 0.549 0.580 0.592 526 518 445 468
11 ATL 0.551 0.532 0.510 443 460 413 412
12 CLE 0.492 0.474 0.416 519 521 547 530
13 MIN 0.490 0.519 0.505 493 490 474 501
14 DET 0.477 0.524 0.525 453 431 430 453
15 ARI 0.521 0.464 0.426 430 432 464 413
16 OAK 0.452 0.455 0.424 446 409 490 454
17 CHN 0.503 0.519 0.531 406 414 389 411
18 BAL 0.450 0.435 0.424 449 442 514 491
19 STL 0.501 0.537 0.534 469 454 434 453
20 SEA 0.447 0.451 0.520 400 410 445 461
21 KC 0.435 0.397 0.404 388 391 485 451
22 MIL 0.475 0.472 0.490 461 473 489 499
23 PIT 0.467 0.472 0.430 423 419 450 451
24 FLA 0.465 0.489 0.520 461 443 472 477
25 HOU 0.464 0.471 0.510 429 442 457 477
26 SF 0.464 0.530 0.540 394 361 368 392
27 NYN 0.458 0.467 0.485 424 438 455 479
28 WAS 0.448 0.401 0.320 438 474 539 528
29 CIN 0.402 0.424 0.455 392 384 463 476
30 SD 0.372 0.345 0.386 398 399 557 526

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