Masters of Deception
by Harry Pavlidis on Jul 24, 2009 2:57 PM EDT
in Pitch f/x Goodies
7 comments
J.P. Howell has been the most deceptive pitcher in 2009, Daniel Cabrera the least.
I'm defining deception in a simplistic manner: called strikes per takes. But, it's calculated by count, relative to the league average and weighted (by the number of takes in that count against the specific pitcher).
So, league averages for called strikes per takes by count. Individual averages calculated the same way, the league average subtracted out and the resulting value divided by the league average. There you have called strikes per take above average (CSpTAA) by count which you then use to create a weighted average for each pitcher. Top, and Bottom, 20 after the jump.
The deception, as I'm calling it, can be from selection, movement or location. Who knows. When creating metrics like this in the past, I also included swings out of the zone. That should be included in this somehow, but I like the simplicity of this approach (for now).
Updated: see the comments for these #'s corrected for control.
| Most Deceptive |
takes | CSpTAA | Least Deceptive |
takes | CSpTAA | |
| J.P. Howell | 423 | .344 | Daniel Cabrera | 462 | -.250 | |
| Roy Halladay | 922 | .337 | Scott Richmond | 697 | -.247 | |
| Jake Peavy | 680 | .321 | Anthony Reyes | 405 | -.242 | |
| Dan Haren | 1155 | .317 | Fausto Carmona | 631 | -.235 | |
| Ted Lilly | 862 | .297 | Brandon Morrow | 460 | -.223 | |
| Jonathan Broxton | 371 | .288 | Kyle Davies | 733 | -.220 | |
| Erik Bedard | 703 | .267 | Sean White | 353 | -.211 | |
| Josh Beckett | 1112 | .264 | David Hernandez | 357 | -.207 | |
| Hideki Okajima | 354 | .259 | Shairon Martis | 690 | -.207 | |
| Kevin Slowey | 707 | .248 | Edwin Jackson | 1010 | -.199 | |
| Josh Johnson | 1021 | .238 | Eric Stults | 451 | -.195 | |
| Shawn Camp | 367 | .237 | Ross Ohlendorf | 849 | -.182 | |
| Ricky Nolasco | 924 | .237 | Trevor Cahill | 1095 | -.180 | |
| Danny Herrera | 354 | .225 | Tim Redding | 506 | -.180 | |
| Jordan Zimmermann | 788 | .215 | Rick Porcello | 804 | -.177 | |
| Randy Wolf | 1048 | .214 | Brad Ziegler | 376 | -.174 | |
| Justin Verlander | 1077 | .211 | Micah Owings | 939 | -.172 | |
| Heath Bell | 380 | .205 | Ian Snell | 795 | -.171 | |
| Aaron Harang | 949 | .204 | Zach Miner | 523 | -.169 | |
| Tim Lincecum | 1163 | .194 | Francisco Liriano | 923 | -.165 |
Surprises? Suggestions for a better calculation and/or set of factors?
0 recs |
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Any stat
That has Daniel Cabrera ranked last pretty much strikes me as accurate.
by Tommy Bennett on Jul 24, 2009 10:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Deception or Just Control?
The guys on the left generally throw a lot of strikes and the guys on the right generally throw a lot of balls. It makes sense that taken pitches are more often strikes when thrown by the strike throwers on the left. This effect might not have anything to do with deception. It might be more about control.
by Henry Louis Gates Was Framed on Jul 24, 2009 10:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It isn't all control, but
There is a difference in hitting the zone, the Top 20 combine for a IWZ rate of .55 and the Bottom 20 are at .51. Perhaps boiling out the effects of being a control pitcher is necessary.
by Harry Pavlidis on Jul 24, 2009 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's the relationship
Pitchers with > 300 pitches only
CSpTAA = 0.8535*IWZ – 0.4738
R2 = 0.1003
by Harry Pavlidis on Jul 24, 2009 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
correction
CSpTAA = 1.4772*IWZ – 0.7722
R2 = 0.1524
Adjusting for IWZ, the Top doesn’t change too much, but non-strike throwers like Derek Lowe and Yovanni Gallardo vault into the top 20. Per a suggestion from Ike Hall, I may further adjust the metric for pitches on the edges of the zone.
J.P. Howell 0.378
Jake Peavy 0.332
Dan Haren 0.328
Hideki Okajima 0.274
Heath Bell 0.261
Roy Halladay 0.256
Jonathan Broxton 0.242
Josh Beckett 0.240
Yovani Gallardo 0.236
Mike Gonzalez 0.233
Danny Herrera 0.209
Rafael Soriano 0.209
Erik Bedard 0.208
Javier Vazquez 0.207
Tim Lincecum 0.205
Derek Lowe 0.193
Kevin Slowey 0.193
Ricky Nolasco 0.185
Justin Verlander 0.181
Josh Johnson 0.180
Sean White -0.232
Edwin Jackson -0.224
Anthony Reyes -0.221
Brandon Morrow -0.217
Micah Owings -0.208
Scott Richmond -0.207
Ross Ohlendorf -0.195
Rick Porcello -0.187
Daniel Cabrera -0.183
Brad Ziegler -0.181
Glen Perkins -0.180
Kyle Davies -0.178
Chien-Ming Wang -0.170
David Hernandez -0.167
Todd Wellemeyer -0.167
Oliver Perez -0.164
Jarrod Washburn -0.162
Francisco Liriano -0.157
Trevor Cahill -0.152
Fausto Carmona -0.152
by Harry Pavlidis on Jul 25, 2009 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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