Masters of Deception

J.P. Howell has been the most deceptive pitcher in 2009, Daniel Cabrera the least.

I'm defining deception in a simplistic manner: called strikes per takes. But, it's calculated by count, relative to the league average and weighted (by the number of takes in that count against the specific pitcher).

So, league averages for called strikes per takes by count. Individual averages calculated the same way, the league average subtracted out and the resulting value divided by the league average. There you have called strikes per take above average (CSpTAA) by count which you then use to create a weighted average for each pitcher. Top, and Bottom, 20 after the jump.

The deception, as I'm calling it, can be from selection, movement or location. Who knows. When creating metrics like this in the past, I also included swings out of the zone. That should be included in this somehow, but I like the simplicity of this approach (for now).

Updated: see the comments for these #'s corrected for control.

Most Deceptive
takes CSpTAA Least Deceptive
takes CSpTAA
J.P. Howell 423 .344 Daniel Cabrera 462 -.250
Roy Halladay 922 .337 Scott Richmond 697 -.247
Jake Peavy 680 .321 Anthony Reyes 405 -.242
Dan Haren 1155 .317 Fausto Carmona 631 -.235
Ted Lilly 862 .297 Brandon Morrow 460 -.223
Jonathan Broxton 371 .288 Kyle Davies 733 -.220
Erik Bedard 703 .267 Sean White 353 -.211
Josh Beckett 1112 .264 David Hernandez 357 -.207
Hideki Okajima 354 .259 Shairon Martis 690 -.207
Kevin Slowey 707 .248 Edwin Jackson 1010 -.199
Josh Johnson 1021 .238 Eric Stults 451 -.195
Shawn Camp 367 .237 Ross Ohlendorf 849 -.182
Ricky Nolasco 924 .237 Trevor Cahill 1095 -.180
Danny Herrera 354 .225 Tim Redding 506 -.180
Jordan Zimmermann 788 .215 Rick Porcello 804 -.177
Randy Wolf 1048 .214 Brad Ziegler 376 -.174
Justin Verlander 1077 .211 Micah Owings 939 -.172
Heath Bell 380 .205 Ian Snell 795 -.171
Aaron Harang 949 .204 Zach Miner 523 -.169
Tim Lincecum 1163 .194 Francisco Liriano 923 -.165

 

Surprises? Suggestions for a better calculation and/or set of factors?

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