Masters of Deception

by Harry Pavlidis on Jul 24, 2009 2:57 PM EDT in Pitch f/x Goodies Comment 7 comments

Daniel Cabrera wasn't fooling anyone with that stuff.

J.P. Howell has been the most deceptive pitcher in 2009, Daniel Cabrera the least.

I'm defining deception in a simplistic manner: called strikes per takes. But, it's calculated by count, relative to the league average and weighted (by the number of takes in that count against the specific pitcher).

So, league averages for called strikes per takes by count. Individual averages calculated the same way, the league average subtracted out and the resulting value divided by the league average. There you have called strikes per take above average (CSpTAA) by count which you then use to create a weighted average for each pitcher. Top, and Bottom, 20 after the jump.

The deception, as I'm calling it, can be from selection, movement or location. Who knows. When creating metrics like this in the past, I also included swings out of the zone. That should be included in this somehow, but I like the simplicity of this approach (for now).

Updated: see the comments for these #'s corrected for control.

Most Deceptive	takes	CSpTAA	Least Deceptive	takes	CSpTAA
J.P. Howell	423	.344	Daniel Cabrera	462	-.250
Roy Halladay	922	.337	Scott Richmond	697	-.247
Jake Peavy	680	.321	Anthony Reyes	405	-.242
Dan Haren	1155	.317	Fausto Carmona	631	-.235
Ted Lilly	862	.297	Brandon Morrow	460	-.223
Jonathan Broxton	371	.288	Kyle Davies	733	-.220
Erik Bedard	703	.267	Sean White	353	-.211
Josh Beckett	1112	.264	David Hernandez	357	-.207
Hideki Okajima	354	.259	Shairon Martis	690	-.207
Kevin Slowey	707	.248	Edwin Jackson	1010	-.199
Josh Johnson	1021	.238	Eric Stults	451	-.195
Shawn Camp	367	.237	Ross Ohlendorf	849	-.182
Ricky Nolasco	924	.237	Trevor Cahill	1095	-.180
Danny Herrera	354	.225	Tim Redding	506	-.180
Jordan Zimmermann	788	.215	Rick Porcello	804	-.177
Randy Wolf	1048	.214	Brad Ziegler	376	-.174
Justin Verlander	1077	.211	Micah Owings	939	-.172
Heath Bell	380	.205	Ian Snell	795	-.171
Aaron Harang	949	.204	Zach Miner	523	-.169
Tim Lincecum	1163	.194	Francisco Liriano	923	-.165

Surprises? Suggestions for a better calculation and/or set of factors?

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Comments

Chiller <3

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 24, 2009 3:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Any stat

That has Daniel Cabrera ranked last pretty much strikes me as accurate.

by Tommy Bennett on Jul 24, 2009 10:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Deception or Just Control?

The guys on the left generally throw a lot of strikes and the guys on the right generally throw a lot of balls. It makes sense that taken pitches are more often strikes when thrown by the strike throwers on the left. This effect might not have anything to do with deception. It might be more about control.

by Henry Louis Gates Was Framed on Jul 24, 2009 10:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It isn't all control, but

There is a difference in hitting the zone, the Top 20 combine for a IWZ rate of .55 and the Bottom 20 are at .51. Perhaps boiling out the effects of being a control pitcher is necessary.

by Harry Pavlidis on Jul 24, 2009 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's the relationship

Pitchers with > 300 pitches only

CSpTAA = 0.8535*IWZ – 0.4738
R2 = 0.1003

by Harry Pavlidis on Jul 24, 2009 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

correction

CSpTAA = 1.4772*IWZ – 0.7722
R2 = 0.1524

Adjusting for IWZ, the Top doesn’t change too much, but non-strike throwers like Derek Lowe and Yovanni Gallardo vault into the top 20. Per a suggestion from Ike Hall, I may further adjust the metric for pitches on the edges of the zone.

J.P. Howell 0.378
Jake Peavy 0.332
Dan Haren 0.328
Hideki Okajima 0.274
Heath Bell 0.261
Roy Halladay 0.256
Jonathan Broxton 0.242
Josh Beckett 0.240
Yovani Gallardo 0.236
Mike Gonzalez 0.233
Danny Herrera 0.209
Rafael Soriano 0.209
Erik Bedard 0.208
Javier Vazquez 0.207
Tim Lincecum 0.205
Derek Lowe 0.193
Kevin Slowey 0.193
Ricky Nolasco 0.185
Justin Verlander 0.181
Josh Johnson 0.180

Sean White -0.232
Edwin Jackson -0.224
Anthony Reyes -0.221
Brandon Morrow -0.217
Micah Owings -0.208
Scott Richmond -0.207
Ross Ohlendorf -0.195
Rick Porcello -0.187
Daniel Cabrera -0.183
Brad Ziegler -0.181
Glen Perkins -0.180
Kyle Davies -0.178
Chien-Ming Wang -0.170
David Hernandez -0.167
Todd Wellemeyer -0.167
Oliver Perez -0.164
Jarrod Washburn -0.162
Francisco Liriano -0.157
Trevor Cahill -0.152
Fausto Carmona -0.152