Betancourt Trade Analysis Using Trade Value Calculator

Originally posted on Purple Row

Today's trade of prospect Connor Graham for Cleveland Indians reliever Rafael Betancourt brought to the forefront of my mind Sky's shiny Trade Value Calculator.

Using the spreadsheet, I'll break down today's trade:

Rafael Betancourt

In valuing the 34 year old Betancourt, I conservatively forecasted his WAR for the rest of this year as equal to his contributions with the Indians this year (0.4 WAR). Why is this conservative? Because Betancourt will get the bump in his numbers that corresponds to his switching leagues and will therefore likely produce at a higher level for Colorado.

For his 2010 $5.4 million option year, which the Rockies won't likely pick up, I projected Betancourt's WAR using a simple average (career WAR / ML service time) to get 1.5 WAR as a target for 2010. If the Rockies do decide to decline the option, offer Betancourt free agency, and take the Type B compensation picks they'll get roughly $2.5 million in value, as Victor Wang explains.

Here's what the trade calculator spit out as Rafael Betancourt's value:

Basically, keeping Betancourt for 2010 nets the Rockies $2.4 million while jettisoning him after this year would net Colorado $3 million in value. As a trade asset by this method of valuation, Betancourt was worth $4.9 million as a trade asset to Colorado--to be traded again or held.

Connor Graham

Valuing Connor Graham is more difficult--after all, he has no big league track record. Luckily, others have done that legwork (Victor Wang in particular) and we have a serviceable definition of the future value of prospects. Erik Manning of BtB does an excellent job of translating Wang's research into a readable table of prospect future value (with a more full explanation here).

This table is largely based upon John Sickels' (of SB Nation blog Minor League Ball) rankings. Sickels ranked Connor Graham as a B-/C+ prospect (fifth in the system overall) going into 2009. Using Manning's chart, this differentiation is rather large ($6.5 million for a Grade B pitcher, $1.3 million for a C pitcher 23 and older).

I am a little more pessimistic on Graham than Sickels is, given his likely future (and ceiling) as a setup man, so I personally value him at around $3 million--which is right around the return the Rockies can expect to receive from Betancourt. My verdict, therefore, is that this is an exceedingly fair trade--one that could be tilted either way by Graham flaming out or becoming a productive starter or even Betancourt returning to 2007 form (3.2 WAR).

Good move by O'Dowd and Shapiro, given their teams' respective prospects for this year.