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Daily Box Score 7/23: Reluctantly About PEDs and the HOF

Keep posting your links in the comments, folks. We love a good discussion.

I have an admission to make. I strongly dislike bringing up the topic of PEDs. It nearly always ends the "reasonable discussion" phase of the conversation. But I guess if Bill James writes it (warning: PDF), all of us sabermatricians have to talk about it, so here we go.

The argument for discriminating against PED users rests upon the assumption of the moral superiority of non-drug users. But in a culture in which everyone routinely uses steroids, that argument cannot possibly prevail. You can like it or you can dislike it, but your grandchildren are going to be steroid users. Therefore, they are very likely to be people who do not regard the use of steroids as a moral failing. They are more likely to regard the banning of steroids as a bizarre artifice of the past. 

He has many other arguments but this is the essential one. He concludes:

It will come upon us in a flash. And, at the end of the day, Mark McGwire is going to be in the Hall of Fame, and Roger Clemens, and Sammy Sosa, and Rafael Palmeiro, and probably even Barry Bonds. I am not especially advocating this; I simply think that is the way it is. 

People who now seem surprised or betrayed by steroids in baseball always reminded me of Captain Renault. Ok, let's open the can of worms in the comments.

Star-divide

Whether or not the "disappearance" of steroids in baseball is the cause, it does appear that run scoring has fallen since its peak a few years ago. In lower run-scoring environments, the value of good baserunning goes up. That makes this piece in Sports Illustrated even more interesting. It looks at the baserunning prowess of Carl Crawford and includes quotes from baserunning statistical gurus James Click and Dan Fox. Here's a taste:

Every week Fox e-mails a baserunning report to Pirates third base coach Tony  Beasley. "At first I was skeptical," says Beasley. "Now I think [Fox is] a genius. The numbers reveal things you don’t really see with your eyes. You see that last year [first baseman] Adam LaRoche didn’t go from first to third a lot and didn’t take a lot of chances in general. Now he’s being more aggressive and is one of our best base runners." 

At the opposite end of the team philosophy spectrum is the "wait for the three-run home run" approach. Or better yet--a grand slam. Or better yet--a pinch-hit grand slam. Or better yet--a pinch-hit grand slam by Manny Ramirez on Manny Ramirez bobblehead night into the Mannywood section of Dodger Stadium. Those Dodger fans really seem broken up about his PED use.

Vin Scully called the reaction of tonight's pinch-hit grand slam by Manny Ramirez off the first pitch by Red reliever Nick Masset the loudest he's heard Dodger Stadium in 20 years.

Psh, if you believe Vin Scully.

Revisiting the DNA testing in the Dominican Republic, Alan Schwarz looked into the testing done on top international prospect Miguel Sano. The testing was used not only to verify Sano's age, but also his identity and whether he had ever used performance-enhancing drugs. Though Sano (as well as his sister and parents) submitted to the testing voluntarily, some experts worry it could be abused:

"Genetic testing is troubling because it kind of gives employers a chance to look into the future and to use that to discriminate against people," [Professor of Criminology William] Thompson said. "It seems to me that the specific application that M.L.B. is making of this test does not fall under the traditional category of genetic discrimination — where you’re basing a decision of what will happen in the future with medical problems. Here M.L.B. is identifying an individual as who they say they are."

Sano did not pay for the testing conducted by either the MLB or the Pittsburgh Pirates, one of the teams pursuing Sano's services.

In a related item, ESPN's international prospect expert Jorge Arangure attempts to derive some lessons (Insider sub. req.) from l'affaire Sano. Perhaps most interestingly, he suggests

3. Increase funding for the RBI program in the Dominican Republic

Rarely do any of the top players in the Dominican play for the RBI (Reviving Baseball in Inner Cities) program. Simply put, the RBI program is a nonfactor in the Dominican. A player like Sano would never be attracted by such a program, because it wouldn't offer him the best opportunity to sign the best contract. By establishing an alternative to the trainer system, MLB could help eliminate a lot of the age-altering that occurs. Perhaps part of the money earned by registering trainers and agents could also be used for this purpose.

He also recommends that teams be required to provide signees with secondary education. Am I wrong in thinking the elephant in the room here is the disparity between international free agents and players subject to the rules of the MLB Rule 4 draft?

Did it seem to you like this year's College World Series was especially high-scoring? Well, you might have been on to something, says Baseball America. New composite bats, used heavily these days, exhibit an exaggerated "trampoline effect" and are also easier to tamper with. 

Indeed, as the charts to the right illustrate, batting, scoring and home runs per game have all spiked in the last two years, coinciding with the increased use of "hot" bats. Scoring and home runs in Division I baseball reached their highest levels in 2009 since bat standards were altered in 1998, the end of the "Gorilla Ball" era.

Of course, correlation does not imply causation. However, college baseball's governing body will consider a moratorium on the use of composite bats in August.

What is BABIP good for? What does it tell us? Perhaps there is room for suspicion, suggests a reader at THT:

Imagine two hitters, A and B, both of whom assemble 600 at-bats, 180 hits, and 100 strikeouts. A hits 15 home runs, however, while B musters 40. Both players hit .300, of course, but their respective BABIPs look like this:

A -- .340

B -- .304

Does BABIP unfairly punish home run hitters? Something about this comparison seems flawed, but I can't quite put my finger on it. Anybody got any ideas?

You know what baseball needs? A clock! No, no, not that sort of clock. Baseball needs a clock on televised broadcasts, to measure everything from stolen base times to outfield throws, proposes Rick Swanson. He also suggests a clock to time

3. Catcher release and throw. When Jarrod Saltalamacchia threw out Jason Bay on July 20, he took 1.98 seconds to catch and throw to second. That is one of the only parts of the game being measured by scouts and coaches in the game today.

I think there's something to be said for a pristine broadcast feed, but if the data were available online, I'm sure it could be useful in some way.

Finally, the Cubs 2009 payroll is estimated to be approximately $135 million (so far). What has it gotten them? A record of 48-45, and Jon Bois says the money could have been used more productively. Or at least more awesomely:

You could then command your armada of penny-clad aircraft carriers around the tip of South America and all the way to the coast of Spain. Every mile you travel, you throw 465 pounds’ worth of pennies into the ocean. Then you disembark and build another line of pennies to Cerro de los Ángeles, Spain. Then you build another line of pennies to the northern coast of Spain, borrow 80 more aircraft carriers, cover them in pennies, and sail to Edinburgh, Scotland. 

Or you could figure out a way to incentivize Alfonso Soriano not to do that silly hop step before catching the ball. In a related note, Tom Tango has an interesting graph on payroll vs. performance. (Care to share your data, please?)

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Aug 2009 from DRaysBay - 0 comments

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Renault

Captain Renault: I’m shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!
[a croupier hands Renault a pile of money]
Croupier: Your winnings, sir.
Captain Renault: [sotto voce] Oh, thank you very much.

by Tommy Bennett on Jul 23, 2009 3:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I don’t think BABIP is punishing the HR hitter. I don’t see BABIP as a performance indicator as much as it is a barometer of randomness, so there’s no punishment as far as I’m concerned. If anything, given all other things equal, I’d rather see those stats attached to a lower BABIP, as it may presume a better level of play and less luck involved. Of course, I don’t know these hypothetical players’ batted ball profiles, so it’s hard to tell what they should be hitting at.

by SFiercex4 on Jul 23, 2009 3:11 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I don’t know these hypothetical players’ batted ball profiles, so it’s hard to tell what they should be hitting at.

That’s what had me worried. But I think BABIP is not random for hitters, although I agree that it does not measure value directly. All other things being equal, isn’t a higher BABIP better than a lower one? Although in this case, certainly all other things were not equal.

by Tommy Bennett on Jul 23, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Better for a goal...

Not so great if your looking at it when considering past performance, or predicting future performance, right?

@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 23, 2009 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The big thing that comes to my mind is that BABIP isn't an independent skill.

When you hit the ball really well, you get home runs. Those don’t help BABIP and probably hurt it a bit. But if you lose some power, you have more balls fall into play, but many of those home runs become hits, raising your BABIP. So if we’re working on a projection, say, as a player loses ground in HR/FB, they might gain ground in BABIP. That relationship is intertwined. But it might be that something like HR/FB and BACON (BABIP but including HRs) is better, because no matter how HR/FB changes, BACON might remain stable. Might.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 23, 2009 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This will probably jinx it

But Mark Buehrle has a perfect game through seven right now.

by Tommy Bennett on Jul 23, 2009 3:40 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

So much for jinxes

by Tommy Bennett on Jul 23, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Don't Think McGwire Will Make Hall

That’s because he hasn’t even gotten to the 25% mark in the voting to this point. There’s no way he’s going to ever get the 75% he needs for induction.

"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Jul 23, 2009 3:49 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

There's always the Veterans' Committee

I think that’s what James was thinking of

by Tommy Bennett on Jul 23, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

RBI was never meant to reach kids like Sano

As someone who once worked at the one in East Harlem, RBI was designed more as a community outreach and youth development model than anything else. The development of players wasn’t so much of a concern (though it was there, certainly) as was the identification of kids who could play and finding ways to get them PT i.e. developing the next Darryl Strawberry, Eric Davis, or Manny.

I agree with James on the basic sentiment, but I just can’t see how Rafael Palmeiro makes it into the HOF…dude sullied the virgin bride that is baseball way more than Pete Rose ever did, imho…though you can’t bet on baseball. NEVER BET ON BASEBALL

by ProustianDisplay on Jul 23, 2009 4:45 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That's what I was thinking.

I = Inner Cities, not International Markets.

And why can’t you bet on baseball? If you’re betting on your team, wouldn’t you be more likely to bet that your team would win? Esp. if you’re someone as competitive as Rose. Even if the argument is that he could’ve bet on margins of victory, Rose doesn’t strike me as a player who would go easy on a team – he railroaded a catcher in an ALL STAR GAME.

@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 23, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well

Sano is from San Pedro de Macoris, which is the 8th largest metropolitan area in the DR.

Also, I think Arangure’s point was more that it would be a benefit to get these players away from the gray-market buscones and into a more regulated framework. Maybe it isn’t exactly like RBI but some sort of Dominican or Latin American analog.

by Tommy Bennett on Jul 23, 2009 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Like a combine? I'm in favor of it.

@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 23, 2009 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

grasping at straws

with respect to Arangure, who routinely asks smart, probing questions about MLB’s Latin American morass, the idea that a Dominican RBI program can solve baseball’s problems is laughable. It’s true that there’s a shortage of baseball infrastructure, and that this infrastructure inhibits scouting. But in general, there’s a lack of infrastructure in the whole country, and however deep MLB’s pockets, it can’t and won’t, say, overhaul a nation’s education system for the sake of saving itself a few million dollars here and there in bonuses.

likewise, it’s a good idea MLB to pay for kids’ educations, a better idea if the offer can wait until after a kid is released from his organization to pursue said learning. clearly it is possible to go to school and train to play major league baseball, but I don’t trust clubs as shepards for teenage students: I think they tend to be keenly focused, perhaps rightly so, on the task of developing ballplayers.

Tommy, not sure what disparity you’re talking about. Would you elaborate?

For what it’s worth, the most convincing idea I’ve heard is for the creation of a sort of Latin American Players Association. There are some logistical issues to resolve, and it would depend on the inclinations of Latin-born players who have made it. But as things stand, Latin American prospects need an influential body to look out for their interests, and it’s hard to see how MLB or its clubs can or should be depended on for that (seeing as it is in the interest of MLB clubs to exploit talent, regardless of its origin). Anyway, I got the idea from Charles Farrell’s newsletter. I’ll come back later to supply a link.

by Patrick Clark on Jul 24, 2009 8:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hmm... interesting idea.

@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 24, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And Manny's granny wasn't a walk off.

@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 23, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You are correct

Thank you. I regret the error.

by Tommy Bennett on Jul 23, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No problem.

@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 23, 2009 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Biggest problem I have with discriminating against players who used PEDs

is that one day, they are going to vote a player into the Hall and years later it will come out he used steroids. Then what? Kick him out? What about those guys you left out who are no longer eligible? They’re screwed and the Hall is “tainted” with at least one steroid user.

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Jul 23, 2009 7:39 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Divide up the Hall.

Deadball, Liveball, Steroid, and we’re now in the Digital Age. Just got to decide where the last two eras began and ended.

@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 23, 2009 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have to agree with you, Evan. It would be virtually impossible to keep every single steroid user out of the Hall.

Another point: Steroids were/are a very big part of the era in baseball. All players look for an advantage. Some may be more unfair than others. But do we really want to keep the greats of our era out of the hall? Because either you keep everyone from that time out, or you risk letting in some steroid users and keeping out others, which is completely unfair. I say choose the best players of the era, regardless of steroid allegations or evidence.

VOTE SANDOVAL
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa

by raisingcain on Jul 23, 2009 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bill James trying to rescue his reputation

His motivation for the nonsensical steroids line: that his rep. was built on Moneyball, anti-small ball tactics…tactics that worked nicely in the PED era, but, as SI article points out, are now obsolete.

As for all players using PEDs—-the point of banning PEDs rests on assumption that usage of them is hazardous to your health. Point is if you don’t ban them, all players will be forced to take them and endanger their lives in order to keep up with the McGwires et all. (which is what happened to Barry Bonds)…

by norm depalma on Jul 24, 2009 8:18 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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