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DH's for the Hall?: A WAR chart display

A post today over at Driveline Mechanics by vivaelpujols on a WAR comparison between two players who achieved their value in entirely different ways got me thinking about DH's and the discussion about their potential entry into the Hall of Fame despite a lack of defense.

Paul Molitor was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2004 as the first player to play DH as his primary position (i.e., out of all positions, he played the most games at DH). But Molitor doesn't entirely count as a DH, as he played over 1400 games in the field and accrued over 13,000 innings in the field in his 20-year career. I think that justifies a claim that he wasn't the sort of full time DH that my title implies. When most people think about this debate, the name Edgar Martinez pops into their mind. Martinez logged 1412 games as a DH and only 4829 innings in the field in a 17-year career. Of the eight players who have played over 1000 games as a DH, only David Ortiz and Hal McRae have played less in the field than Martinez.

This should all point to a lot of negative DH runs for playing the most replaceable position on the field. How does that work in a Hall of Fame discussion? Thanks to Rally's historical WAR, here are two players with varying degrees of offensive and defensive value (WARNING: Blatant rip-off of VEP's format for this piece.)

WARMartinez1

Answers after the jump.

Star-divide

 

The question-marked player amassed a few more wins than Martinez, but did so in five more years of service, two of which were considered above average. As mentioned, while Martinez got much of his value out of his bat, the questioned player did most of his work with his glove. The answer?

WARMartinez2

Robinson of course was well known for his glove, amassing 16 straight Gold Gloves at third base and tallying 268 runs above average defensively. Here's how their hitting compares.

WARMartinez3

To no surprise, it isn't close. Robinson amassed 20 runs above average offensively over the course of his 23 year career, while Martinez had 559 runs above average during his significantly shorter career. The peak difference between their best years offensively was over 40 runs above replacement.

Here's the defensive side of the equation.

WARMartinez4

This isn't surprising either. Since Martinez DH'ed much of his entire career (essentially all of the negative run values come from DHing full time) and Robinson was one of the best defensive third baseman in the game, the differences here are enormous as well. The career difference in defensive value, including positional adjustment, between the two is 461 runs.

Within two wins either above or below Edgar Martinez on Rally's Top 500 position players, there are 10 current Hall of Famers, including Robinson, Tony Gwynn, Gary Carter, and Carlton FIsk. It's true that to be a DH that makes the Hall of Fame, one would have to put up significantly superior hitting numbers in order to come close. I don't think we'll see player who will have better credentials for the Hall as a full-time DH than Martinez in some time. He should be in there when he's ellgible in my opinion. Hopefully the DH stigma doesn't hinder his chances too much.

Comment 23 comments  |  5 recs  | 

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SSS HoF Class of 2010

Dec 2009 from South Side Sox - 17 comments

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Ugh, first time using this posting format. Messy as hell. My apologies for the junk at the end everyone.

by SFiercex4 on Jul 23, 2009 12:41 PM EDT reply actions  

Try clicking "submit for distribution"

Then people can easily put this on their facebooks, twitters, etc. Alas, I will copy and paste instead!

I never really liked the old tagline.

CougCenter

by Craig Powers on Jul 26, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Big Hurt is going to be tough sell also, the voters as a whole don't like the DH

Another group of players that I see having problems getting into the Hall are people that played for Colorado. There is already a huge bias against them in MVP voting and I am sure it will extend to the HOF.

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman on Jul 23, 2009 1:11 PM EDT reply actions  

I smell a Florida bias with those Dolphins colors.

With the offensive and defensive disparities so large, I was hoping to see a best to worst WAR graph of their total value for each season. Could you throw one of those together?

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 23, 2009 1:18 PM EDT reply actions  

I wasn’t even thinking about that. I went orange for Robinson since he was an Oriole, and I went with the “sea green” color for Edgar because it looked similar to the green on the Mariner’s old jerseys. I only now realize the irony.

For everyone’s viewing pleasure.

WARMartinez5

Because Martinez played less years, the discrepancies look odd at the end of his part of the chart. Those of course were his formative years and final below-replacement year. Robinson had more seasons where he was below average.

Their primes were pretty close. Best years 1-11 for each player:

Edgar Martinez: 61.6 WAR
Brooks Robinson: 58.0 WAR

3.6 WAR difference. Robinson just had more league average or better years after that.

by SFiercex4 on Jul 23, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Both above the replacement HoF line...

And I think Robinson is JUST under the average HoF line for most of his career, via mental super-imposition.

@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.

by bdalebs on Jul 23, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

And, actually, Martinez is following the average line for the 4th-10th best seasons, I think.

Both obviously should be in.

@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.

by bdalebs on Jul 23, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Question

If we’re going to try to evaluate DHs compared to players who regularly played in the field, would it not make sense to take a certain about of WAR away from DHs to account for their likely below replacement-level fielding had they played there regularly? Or is this sort of idea already contained in WAR to begin with?

by arzdb on Jul 23, 2009 1:56 PM EDT reply actions  

That's the position adjustment

Each position has a run adjustment that equals a set amount over 700 or so PA’s. DH’s have the largest negative adjustment; they lose 17.5 runs per 700 PA. That’s why Martinez’s defensive values were in the negatives even though he wasn’t playing in the field all those years.

by SFiercex4 on Jul 23, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

great fanpost

I would like to see a list of todays guys especially. maybe like a smackdown of DH’s

by The_Fan on Jul 23, 2009 3:57 PM EDT reply actions  

Click image to enlarge.

by Mike Rogers on Jul 23, 2009 6:35 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Wow.

Never realized Giambi was so good.

@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.

by bdalebs on Jul 23, 2009 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

He had a good 3-4 seasons. However, for career longevity, he’s no Edgar Martinez or Frank Thomas. Best peak of any of the DH’s, though.

Also, David Ortiz used to get all sorts of love, and he’s clearly worse than the others (though, some like Giambi do have some lesser positional adjustments due to time spent at 1B).

by Mike Rogers on Jul 24, 2009 2:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

Papi gets the love b/c of his playoffs dramatics and his general likability.

Always smilin’.

@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.

by bdalebs on Jul 24, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wonder if that'll change

now that people realize when he wasn’t smilin’, he was juicin’.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Aug 3, 2009 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

I need to be Papi's PR guy.

He obviously chose to forgo the test in favor of a positive test so that the percentage of users would be more likely to be above the 5-7% needed to establish a mandatory testing. He’s already on record as being in favor of harsher punishments for positive tests, and the testing was supposed to be anonymous at the time, so he wouldn’t have been punished for trying to be a good person. And the MLB can’t very well come out and say that he actually did test positive for something, or the MLBPA would be enraged.

by bdalebs on Aug 4, 2009 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

That is either intentionally or unintentionally hilarious.

Either way, it made me laugh.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Aug 4, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

No problem.

I only wish Papi had contacted me before talking to the media. :(

by bdalebs on Aug 4, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

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