BtB Power Rankings: Through Tuesday, July 21st, 2009
We're back! The Rankings spent their all-star break in sunny Ocean City, MD, but are back with a splendid tan.
Anyhow, welcome to our weekly ranking of all the MLB teams! In this ranking, we use aggregate team hitting, pitching, and fielding statistics--not team wins, losses, runs scored, or runs allowed--to evaluate the performance of teams to date. You can think of the estimated winning percentage (eW%) below as how we'd expect teams to fall out if we threw teams with these aggregate statistics into one big league and let them battle it out for thousands of games.
The table is sortable if you click in the header. All data are park-adjusted when possible. A legend is below the table, followed by commentary. There is also a table comparing actual vs. expected run scored and run allowed totals, as well as actual vs. expected winning percentages.
BtB Power Rankings: Through Tuesday, July 21st, 2009
| Rank | Chg | Team | wOBA | eRS | tRA | tRns | Fld | eRA | eW%lg | LgAdj | eW% |
| 1 | 0 | TB | 0.356 | 525 | 4.63 | 426 | 18.4 | 407 | 0.620 | 11.7 | 0.643 |
| 2 | 0 | NYA | 0.360 | 539 | 4.87 | 450 | 1.2 | 449 | 0.589 | 11.6 | 0.612 |
| 3 | 0 | BOS | 0.339 | 465 | 4.07 | 373 | -20.1 | 393 | 0.579 | 11.6 | 0.604 |
| 4 | 0 | LAN | 0.339 | 481 | 4.19 | 397 | 14.5 | 382 | 0.607 | -11.7 | 0.582 |
| 5 | +1 | CHA | 0.327 | 416 | 4.14 | 377 | -7.6 | 384 | 0.537 | 11.6 | 0.564 |
| 6 | -1 | TOR | 0.332 | 455 | 4.55 | 429 | 7.7 | 422 | 0.536 | 11.7 | 0.561 |
| 7 | +3 | COL | 0.328 | 432 | 3.89 | 359 | -2.4 | 362 | 0.581 | -11.7 | 0.555 |
| 8 | -1 | LAA | 0.346 | 479 | 5.10 | 462 | -1.1 | 463 | 0.516 | 11.4 | 0.540 |
| 9 | 0 | MIN | 0.336 | 464 | 4.68 | 437 | -18.6 | 455 | 0.509 | 11.7 | 0.533 |
| 10 | -2 | TEX | 0.331 | 426 | 4.85 | 444 | 24.5 | 419 | 0.508 | 11.4 | 0.533 |
| 11 | 0 | DET | 0.330 | 414 | 4.83 | 430 | 15.4 | 415 | 0.499 | 11.3 | 0.525 |
| 12 | 0 | PHI | 0.343 | 476 | 4.83 | 444 | 13.1 | 431 | 0.548 | -11.3 | 0.524 |
| 13 | +2 | ATL | 0.325 | 427 | 4.08 | 382 | -11.5 | 394 | 0.538 | -11.7 | 0.511 |
| 14 | 0 | SEA | 0.320 | 397 | 4.82 | 445 | 27.3 | 418 | 0.476 | 11.6 | 0.503 |
| 15 | -2 | CLE | 0.335 | 462 | 5.17 | 477 | -19.2 | 496 | 0.466 | 11.7 | 0.490 |
| 16 | +2 | ARI | 0.313 | 394 | 4.17 | 394 | 3.3 | 391 | 0.504 | -11.7 | 0.476 |
| 17 | +6 | OAK | 0.312 | 372 | 4.49 | 412 | -5.7 | 418 | 0.447 | 11.4 | 0.474 |
| 18 | +2 | BAL | 0.327 | 419 | 4.85 | 442 | -24.5 | 466 | 0.449 | 11.6 | 0.474 |
| 19 | -2 | MIL | 0.332 | 445 | 5.05 | 464 | 13.8 | 450 | 0.494 | -11.7 | 0.469 |
| 20 | -1 | STL | 0.322 | 414 | 4.51 | 425 | 6.4 | 419 | 0.495 | -11.9 | 0.468 |
| 21 | -5 | KC | 0.312 | 369 | 4.36 | 396 | -24.6 | 421 | 0.440 | 11.6 | 0.467 |
| 22 | -1 | CHN | 0.309 | 373 | 4.25 | 392 | 7.0 | 385 | 0.485 | -11.4 | 0.457 |
| 23 | +1 | PIT | 0.318 | 391 | 4.81 | 437 | 26.9 | 410 | 0.478 | -11.6 | 0.451 |
| 24 | +3 | HOU | 0.322 | 410 | 4.72 | 440 | -2.9 | 443 | 0.464 | -11.7 | 0.438 |
| 25 | 0 | SF | 0.302 | 340 | 4.24 | 390 | 22.0 | 368 | 0.465 | -11.6 | 0.436 |
| 26 | 0 | FLA | 0.321 | 415 | 4.71 | 446 | -11.5 | 457 | 0.455 | -11.8 | 0.429 |
| 27 | -5 | NYN | 0.321 | 406 | 4.72 | 433 | -23.4 | 456 | 0.445 | -11.6 | 0.420 |
| 28 | +1 | WAS | 0.327 | 432 | 5.24 | 475 | -28.4 | 504 | 0.425 | -11.6 | 0.402 |
| 29 | -1 | CIN | 0.308 | 370 | 4.89 | 455 | 15.2 | 440 | 0.420 | -11.6 | 0.394 |
| 30 | 0 | SD | 0.311 | 375 | 5.00 | 469 | -14.7 | 483 | 0.383 | -11.7 | 0.358 |
Offense = wOBA (park-corrected), eRS (estimated runs scored; wRC from FanGraphs, then park adjusted)
Pitching = tRA and tRns are a home-brew version of Graham MacAree's statistic.
Fielding = Fld: average of bUZR (from FanGraphs) and THT's batted balls statistic (converted to runs)
eRA (estimated runs allowed) = Pitching - Fielding
eW%lg = estimated winning percentage within the specific league (AL or NL)
LgAdj = league adjustment (bonus to AL teams, penalty to NL teams, because the AL has superior level of play)
eW% = estimated winning percentage if all teams were in one league (after league adjustment)
Methods provided in more detail in the first post in this series
Team Leaders (asterisks indicate teams improving in specific ranking):
American League
Offense (wOBA): Yankees, Rays, Angels
Pitching (tRA): Red Sox*, White Sox, Royals
Fielding (Fld): Mariners*, Rangers, Rays
National League
Offense (wOBA): Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers
Pitching (tRA): Rockies, Braves, Diamondbacks*
Fielding (Fld): Pirates, Giants*, Reds
"On Paper" Playoff Leaders (asterisks indicate new leaders):
American League: E=Rays, C=White Sox, W=Angels, WC=Yankees
National League: E=Phillies, C=Brewers, W=Dodgers, WC=Rockies
This Week's Movers:
Despite the rankings' week off during the week of the all-star break, we had no changes in the on-paper division leaders, and no changes in our top 4 teams in the rankings--things may be starting to stabilize as we enter the second half of the season.
Nevertheless, a few teams moved substantially up or down in our rankings. The largest ascent was by the Oakland Athletics, who surged upwards to 17th in our rankings, overtaking Baltimore as the worst-ranked AL team. I know, I know, the league adjustment seem over-the-top (despite appearances, we may actually be conservative!). Still, this A's team is showing signs of life after being surprisingly weak all season long. The offense is up 6 points in wOBA, helped by the dramatic comeback Monday night. Pitching is also up 7 points of tRA (despite Monday's game), and even the fielding is improved by four runs compared to two weeks ago. They've only been a 0.500 team over the last 8 games, but that's better than they've been able to say most of the year.
Other improvements were by the Rockies and the Astros. The Rockies continue to be our on-paper leaders for the wild card, and they're playing like it, just overtaking the Giants for second in the NL West (and the wild card lead). On June 3rd, this team was 20-32, and have since gone 31-11 as they launched themselves onto the scene. My version of tRA still ranks the Rockies pitching staff as best in the National League, and we're seeing some of that manifested in their success over the past month and a half.
The Astros were in the basement, but have been playing better over the past several weeks and have pushed themselves over the 0.500 mark. I don't know if they'll continue this success (still not sure I believe in Wandy Rodriguez, among others), and I find it hard to believe that they can outlast the Brewers (among other teams), but it's hard to count a team with Oswalt and Berkman out.
Falling in this weeks' update are the Royals and the Mets. The Royals' slide has been frequent conservation in these rankings, so I'm not going to talk about them further--it's just losing streak after losing streak these days. The Mets just are imploding. Injuries hurt them, but I personally think it's all Carlos Beltran's fault. The guy just has no edge.
I also wanted to take a moment to mourn what's happening with my Reds, who have slipped to second-to-last in the rankings behind the...Nationals. At least Jim Bowden isn't employed over there anymore, though I'm sure that a) he reads this and b) he's gloating. Bastard.
Below are actual vs expected winning percentages, runs scored, and runs allowed. When a team's ranking deviates substantially from their actual performance (e.g. the Giants), this table will hopefully help you see the cause.Actual vs Expected Performances
| Rank | Team | eW%lg | PythW% | TrueW% | TrueRS | ExpRS | TrueRA | ExpRA |
| 1 | TB | 0.620 | 0.584 | 0.553 | 503 | 525 | 422 | 407 |
| 2 | NYA | 0.589 | 0.568 | 0.602 | 512 | 539 | 445 | 449 |
| 3 | BOS | 0.579 | 0.582 | 0.591 | 459 | 465 | 385 | 393 |
| 4 | LAN | 0.607 | 0.622 | 0.638 | 482 | 481 | 369 | 382 |
| 5 | CHA | 0.537 | 0.499 | 0.516 | 414 | 416 | 415 | 384 |
| 6 | TOR | 0.536 | 0.536 | 0.489 | 439 | 455 | 407 | 422 |
| 7 | COL | 0.581 | 0.556 | 0.543 | 439 | 432 | 390 | 362 |
| 8 | LAA | 0.516 | 0.550 | 0.587 | 505 | 479 | 456 | 463 |
| 9 | MIN | 0.509 | 0.534 | 0.511 | 460 | 464 | 428 | 455 |
| 10 | TEX | 0.508 | 0.539 | 0.554 | 436 | 426 | 401 | 419 |
| 11 | DET | 0.499 | 0.534 | 0.538 | 432 | 414 | 402 | 415 |
| 12 | PHI | 0.548 | 0.574 | 0.582 | 479 | 476 | 411 | 431 |
| 13 | ATL | 0.538 | 0.528 | 0.511 | 416 | 427 | 392 | 394 |
| 14 | SEA | 0.476 | 0.482 | 0.527 | 381 | 397 | 397 | 418 |
| 15 | CLE | 0.466 | 0.449 | 0.394 | 463 | 462 | 514 | 496 |
| 16 | ARI | 0.504 | 0.451 | 0.426 | 393 | 394 | 437 | 391 |
| 17 | OAK | 0.447 | 0.448 | 0.424 | 400 | 372 | 447 | 418 |
| 18 | BAL | 0.449 | 0.440 | 0.441 | 430 | 419 | 487 | 466 |
| 19 | MIL | 0.494 | 0.495 | 0.511 | 435 | 445 | 440 | 450 |
| 20 | STL | 0.495 | 0.530 | 0.531 | 430 | 414 | 403 | 419 |
| 21 | KC | 0.440 | 0.395 | 0.398 | 365 | 369 | 458 | 421 |
| 22 | CHN | 0.485 | 0.506 | 0.511 | 368 | 373 | 363 | 385 |
| 23 | PIT | 0.478 | 0.491 | 0.441 | 397 | 391 | 405 | 410 |
| 24 | HOU | 0.464 | 0.479 | 0.511 | 402 | 410 | 420 | 443 |
| 25 | SF | 0.465 | 0.533 | 0.538 | 373 | 340 | 347 | 368 |
| 26 | FLA | 0.455 | 0.477 | 0.505 | 435 | 415 | 456 | 457 |
| 27 | NYN | 0.445 | 0.446 | 0.473 | 390 | 406 | 438 | 456 |
| 28 | WAS | 0.425 | 0.373 | 0.290 | 394 | 432 | 516 | 504 |
| 29 | CIN | 0.420 | 0.431 | 0.473 | 373 | 370 | 432 | 440 |
| 30 | SD | 0.383 | 0.356 | 0.394 | 376 | 375 | 513 | 483 |
0 recs |
37 comments
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Comments
Yeah!
I can update playoff odds now!
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 22, 2009 4:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I've missed you so much, Power Rankings.
Giants hold steady, yet again. 27th for the Mets? Yowzers. You won’t see that many other places.
Beyond the Boxscore Not a member? Sign up.
by Sky Kalkman on Jul 22, 2009 4:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Tampa is really, really good
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 22, 2009 4:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If there pitching gets better, the rest of the league is screwed.
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 22, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fortunately for the Rays, signs in that direction are favorable.
Beyond the Boxscore Not a member? Sign up.
by Sky Kalkman on Jul 22, 2009 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you agree with Dave that they should trade a bunch of guys to get Cliff Lee?
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 22, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dave who?
A bunch of guys? Sure, if I get to pick the bunch of guys. ; ) Seriously, what level of package is he suggesting?
How many wins do we think Lee would add over Niemann/Price/? Price probably gets kicked out if the Rays really want to make a run this year. He’s what, a 5.50 ERA pitcher? 5.00? Other? If Lee’s a 3.25 ERA guy (3.50 to be conservative?) over 80 IP, that’s about 2 wins difference. Probably extremely valuable to the Rays right now. If Kazmir’s out for a while, then the choice is probably still Lee over Price, as Sonny’s probably expected to be better than Price the second half of this season.
Beyond the Boxscore Not a member? Sign up.
by Sky Kalkman on Jul 22, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dave Cameron on FanGraphs today
You have guys like Reid Brignac, Matt Joyce, Wade Davis, and now Jeremy Hellickson in Triple-A. You have Willy Aybar on the bench. Your outfield is overcrowded, but someone is going to have to go to make room for Desmond Jennings eventually. You have talent to spare… Call up Mark Shapiro and blow him away with an offer. Stick Lee in front of Shields, Garza, Price/Kazmir, and Niemann and run down the big boys. You have talent coming out of your ears, and a real shot at winning the World Series this year. I know you love Wade Davis, but you can live without him – you have 18 other pitchers who could take his place in future seasons.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 22, 2009 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"in future season" doesn't mean the 2010 Davis will be in
Not sure if Dave picked this up from somewhere but it has spreaded every where, even to our weak local TV media.
by therayspartyleader on Jul 22, 2009 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think I like that idea, given something moderately fair.
I’m guessing Lee’s got as much value as Halladay (little worse, little cheaper – feel free to run the numbers on me), meaning $25M in savings. That’s a Wade Davis + B hitting prospect.
Beyond the Boxscore Not a member? Sign up.
by Sky Kalkman on Jul 22, 2009 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just updated the playoff odds, and the Rays are still at 30%
Add in 2 wins for Lee, and they improve to 45% (although still well behind the Yankees and Sox). Plus, isn’t Lee signed for next year also?
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 22, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, he has an (8MM I think) option for next year.
><
by Blicks on Jul 22, 2009 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pretty dang good deal, just not sure it's in the Rays' budget.
Maybe if they move Crawford for something cheap, like a MI or CA prospect.
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by Sky Kalkman on Jul 22, 2009 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree.
I would have moved Kazmir a while ago.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/11/20/665695/the-rays-should-trade-scot
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/4/10/830372/trading-scott-kazmir
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by Sky Kalkman on Jul 22, 2009 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
Hellickson to Triple-A today
by Tommy Bennett on Jul 22, 2009 6:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
And now I'm crying.
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 22, 2009 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
don't worry, you'll make it
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 22, 2009 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your odds account for the Sox deciding it's less fun to win?
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 22, 2009 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am marveling over how awful the NL Central really is.
It’s the definition of short bus.
><
by Blicks on Jul 22, 2009 6:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Amazin Avenue should print these out and send them to Omar Minaya
“Right now we do not envision [being a seller],” Minaya said. “If we’re 6 ½ [back] in the wild card with a couple of teams in front of us, we are still kind of trying to find out how we can improve this team, if we can improve it through trades.”
Minaya: Mets buyers, not sellers
If this isn’t posturization, it makes no sense.
><
by Blicks on Jul 22, 2009 9:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If the Mets got a 8 WAR player, they would still have less than a 50% chance of making the playoffs
This guys an idiot.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 22, 2009 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mindblowing revelation there, VEP. :)
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 22, 2009 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry, I'm kinda overusing these odds
They’re so fun though!
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 22, 2009 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nah, I love'em. I have to beat fellow Sox fans on the head with them.
I meant calling Minaya an idiot – thought that was well established.
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 22, 2009 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes my ChiSox are on there way
Twinkies a distant 4 spots away, I think we can pull this off without bringing in Doc
by The_Fan on Jul 22, 2009 10:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You know what's funny about this?
Since the last time the Power Rankings were posted, the Phillies went 10-2, including 10 in a row. They gained exactly zero slots in the standings. Just another reminder that it’s not how, it’s how many.
by Tommy Bennett on Jul 23, 2009 12:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Those two losses must of really been a drag.
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 23, 2009 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting that the 2 biggest fallers
NYN and KC at (-5) made two of the season’s worst trades not long ago.
Pete Rose was actually banned from baseball for teaching Jeff Francoeur how to play. He made up the gambling stuff to hide his shame.
by VivaLosBravos on Jul 23, 2009 1:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Even more interesting when
you consider that these Power Rankings don’t take into account the roster going forward or playing time adjustments.
by Tommy Bennett on Jul 23, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Baserunning?
I know wOBA includes stolen bases and the effects of baserunning aren’t much compared to the three main stats used here, but it might be a good idea to include a stat like Bpro’s EQBRR. The difference from top to bottom is almost 30 runs:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=493718
Just another thing to consider
by bengalsneedagm on Jul 23, 2009 4:26 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I'm a big proponent of this.
Although there’s a bit of noise in baserunning data, even BPro’s. It would need some regression, since the main point of Justin’s power rankings is to remove noise.
Beyond the Boxscore Not a member? Sign up.
by Sky Kalkman on Jul 23, 2009 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll have to think about this
I’m using fangraphs’ wRC for offense, which already includes sb info. I don’t want to double count. I could start doing my own linear weights for just offensive events, but I’ve enjoyed being able to just use wRC. Lets me escape any responsibility. :)
-j
My blog: Basement-Dwellers.com
Also: Beyond the Boxscore
by JinAZ on Jul 24, 2009 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Past seasons?
Is it possible to use this for end-of-season power ranking from years past? I am particularly interesting in where the ’06 Cardinals would fall, given their poor record when champs. Thanks.
by Shi on Jul 23, 2009 5:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
stl '06
Quick ’n dirty:
Offense
wRC: 772 runs / 0.99 park factor = 780 runs scored
Defense
pRAA + average: 782 runs + 75 RAA = 857 runs
bUZR: +14.7 runs
Total: 842 runs allowed
So, using pythag, that’s (780^2)/(857^2+780^2) = 0.453 w%
Obviously, that’s a lot worse than reality, especially on defense. But tRA really doesn’t like the 2006 Cards’ pitching (except for Carpenter):
http://www.statcorner.com/team.php?team=SLN&year=2006&leag=N_L
UZR likes their fielding, it doesn’t think they were brilliant either.
Lucky blokes. :)
-j
My blog: Basement-Dwellers.com
Also: Beyond the Boxscore
by JinAZ on Jul 24, 2009 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wanna do me a favor and send me the spreadsheet?
I need to be able to use these rankings historically to test something for the playoff odds stuff.
F*** Billy Beane... actually, I kinda like Holliday
by vivaelpujols on Jul 29, 2009 4:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs












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