New Arm of the Week: Mat Latos

by Harry Pavlidis on Jul 21, 2009 2:03 PM EDT in Pitch f/x Goodies

Mat Latos went from Futures to Majors in a week. Latos' debut with the Padres came on Sunday, making him the only rookie pitcher to make his debut in the weekend after the All Star break. Latos throws two fastballs (four-seam and two-seam), a breaking ball (let's call it a slider) and a straight change-up, according to KFFL:

Chris [Hadom] informed me that Latos actually ditched a knuckle change in favor of one with a more traditional grip.

Here's what I found, including the inning from the Futures Game:

Pitch                   #  MPH  PFX_X  PFX_Z
Change             CH   1   83   -3.5   10.5
Two-seam Fastball  F2   4   95   -6.3    8.0
Four-seam Fastball F4  59   96   -2.8   10.2
Slider             SL  14   83    1.0   -0.2

Some Video

Interview:

Warm-ups from his debut:

Some Observations

Fly ball pitcher (28% GB, just 9% LD)
Attacks the zone (.610 with F4, .5 with SL)
Slider hasn't offered at (3 swings, 1 grounder, 2 fouls)
Missed a lot of bats with the fastball (.25 whiff rate on 32 swings)
Not enough two-seam fastballs (4) and change-ups (1) in the available data
Possibly three different looks on slider, or inconsistency, or fatigue

Take a look at the three sliders. #3 (shown in yellow) had less sink and more sweep. #2 (dark red) is about the same as the average variety (shown in bright green), #1 was the most curve-like of the bunch, sinking without sweeping like a 12-6 pitch.

Type "3" sliders appeared only at the end of his final inning on Sunday. Something to watch for next time out.

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Comments

So his slider gets better as he tires?

Wow.

@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.

by bdalebs on Jul 21, 2009 2:26 PM EDT reply actions

I dunno about that

First, I’m not certain he was tired, just wondering. It seems plausible, though. And I’m not sure which is better, one with sink or one with sweep. I guess it depends on what he’s trying to do, and if he even has any control over it.

by Harry Pavlidis on Jul 21, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions

True.

Perhaps they’re different grips?

@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.

by bdalebs on Jul 21, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Even though there are only four

It’s surprising he doesn’t throw that two-seamer more often. Looks nasty.

by Tommy Bennett on Jul 21, 2009 3:38 PM EDT reply actions

He looks to be a great fit in Petco

Derosa.

by vivaelpujols on Jul 21, 2009 8:08 PM EDT reply actions

Harry, what’s the best way to eyeball the 4 seamer from the 2-seamer with the raw data?

Fire Jim Leyland

by Mike Rogers on Jul 22, 2009 1:09 AM EDT reply actions

It's easier for some pitchers

Sometimes you get two distinct clusters. The spin axis is usually a good way to find the cut-off. Which reminds me, it’s time to write that pitch classification tutorial…..

by Harry Pavlidis on Jul 22, 2009 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions