Daily Box Score 7/20: Statistical Debris
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I call it statigue: the reaction some fans have to statistical overload. Some people react to the multiplying array of baseball statistics by shutting them all out--the good and the bad both. That seems to be the problem facing Norman Chad, who refers to "statistical debris":
For years, ESPN has led the statistical avalanche. But it has plenty of company now. The Wall Street Journal covers the world of business and the world at large pretty adeptly; however, when it comes to the world of sports, the Journal has turned into USA Today, with bigger words. The Journal reduces all of sport to numbers, graphs and pie charts -- it's a statistical junkyard, with spare parts nobody needs.
He even bashes on K/BB and xFIP (at least I think he does).
Neal Huntington made unique contract extension offers to infielders Freddy Sanchez and Jack Wilson. Craig Calcaterra describes the offers, pulling no punches:
Sanchez was given an option by Neal Huntington that rewarded good consistent play, and he has delivered it. The new offer he was given, however, takes that away and stands to pay him far less than he can expect to get over the next two years regardless. Wilson is also being asked to drop his option and take a pay cut, all while being bad-mouthed by his boss. Neither of the offers ever stood a chance of being accepted and Huntington had to know it.
Gee, boss, where do I sign? Tango breaks it down a little bit further here. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette adds an interesting tidbit:
If Wilson and Sanchez remain and first baseman Adam LaRoche does not return next year, the middle infielders almost surely will be the team's highest-paid everyday players in 2010 by a wide margin. All the rest, except catcher Ryan Doumit at $3.55 million, will make at or close to the major league minimum $400,000 because of their experience levels.
Astonishing. If you're gonna control costs, you might as well go ahead and really do it.
Does baseball discriminate against women? Maybe I should rephrase that. Why does baseball discriminate against women? LA Times writer Kurt Streeter invited Jennifer Ring, a professor and baseball enthusiast who wrote Stolen Bases: Why American Girls Don't Play Baseball, to a game at Dodger Stadium with him. She faced difficulties playing baseball, and so has her daughter:
She grew up in L.A., loving baseball but, like so many her age, never getting a chance to play anywhere but in pickup games. Her daughter, Lilly Jacobson, faced similar obstacles. A solid Little Leaguer in Reno, Lilly got short shrift when she tried to play in high school.
"People were saying, 'How come you are not preparing her to play softball, what in the heck is wrong with you?' "Ring recalled. "Look, all she wanted was to play baseball."
Yeah, jeez, they don't even let you lead off in softball.
Speaking of girls and baseball, metsgrrl offers up what is undoubtedly the most exhaustive stadium guide I have ever seen: The Metsgrrl.com Guide to Citi Field. She even includes the important stuff:
The out of town scoreboard is in left field. It is very difficult to read at night.
Pitch count and pitch speed are on the ribbon board, and on the large video board in right field.
Lineups are on the right field board 15 minutes before first pitch. They will disappear during the anthem and the various special presentations. It is a pet peeve that the lineups are not immediately and always visible once you walk in the ballpark. The Mets say that fans like the trivia and other presentations, we’re not sure why that can’t be confined to the main video board.
Trey Hillman has not done much to endear himself to Royals fans of late. Between injuries, bullpen usage and bizarre remarks from the front office, the fan-management relationship is a bit strained. Over at Royals Review, it seems that at least one fan has had enough:
This worldview, perhaps we shall call it a theosophical one, is not without its strengths. As noted above, it offers numerous intellectual and emotional comforts to its believers, including a deep connection to an imagined past, which for most men carries with it an association with the happy days of childhood and early manhood. Nevertheless, heresy and schism, continually lurk in this moral universe. A tragic flaw in the theosophical system, we might say, has been a combination of a basic rigidity or fundamentalism and an insidious trojan horse, both related to Closers.
The award for best use of the word "theosophical" in a rant against the save statistic goes to: (drumroll please) Will McDonald! Leave it to an English Lit grad student...
After the kerfuffle over the intentional walk in the All-Star Game, Seamheads did some digging. It turns out that there was an attempt to do away with the tactic all the way back in the 1920s. The results, however, were modest:
Before, when teams gave an intentional walk, the catchers would stand outside of the catcher’s box and give the pitcher a target way off the outside part of the plate. Now, catchers would have to remain in the catcher’s box when they stood up to issue a walk and could only move outside of it when the pitcher released the ball, much like what we see today.
Finally, doubling to remember the career of Greg Maddux and to provide comic relief is The Dugout. You'll forgive me as a I quote at length:
SuttonDeath: Greg, what is it like to be so much smarter than everyone around you?
maddux.xmission.com: you want to know what it's like?
maddux.xmission.com: when you see a moth flying around in your house, and you know you could kill it
maddux.xmission.com: but then you wonder whether this moth will eat your food and chew through your clothes, and you know he won't
maddux.xmission.com: so you sit and stare at him as he rests on the wall. you know you're better than him, smarter than him, but you wonder whether it's your given right to squash him
maddux.xmission.com: you think about it, and then you decide it's just as well to let him ground out to shortstop
maddux.xmission.com: or maybe fly out to david justice. different method, same result.
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The only reason I think Huntington did those offers
he either wants to deal them, or he will hope that they will want to play better, better trade bait. I’m thinking the Pirates might be able to do a Rays turnaround with their veterans and young players.
Ha.
Last quote’s funny. Now to read the anti-stat article for more laughs.
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I think he may actually have a point
About ESPN showing a player’s batting average in each count. SSS errors abound.
by Tommy Bennett on Jul 20, 2009 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Meh.
Every once in a while it’s a relevant stat. The author could just, ya know, ignore it. Why should we have to suffer the foolishness that is most broadcasts?
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
He has a lot of point.
We don’t necessarily need a lot of stats, just the BEST stats. We don’t need ridiculous small sample splits being offered as evidence.
Maybe he’s picking the wrong stats to pick on – how does he know any better? But sabermetrics is not well served by letting old, supplanted stats live on past their due date. (My biggest problem with BP’s stats section is that it’s like the Hotel California for stats – they can’t ever leave. This is how we have VORP for pitchers and SNVAR and WXLR and so on and so forth.)
I used to love the dugout, and I'm sure there are still salvageable excerpts
I just can’t justify reading every one, anymore. If you haven’t read the original Brothers Young saga, I highly recommend you do. It will make you smile.
I agree with Chad
I think he has a point. People are getting way too quanty in their stats when simple stats, presented well and coherently, can tell the baseball story very very well. And that quote he has “ERA is the result of a confluence of events” is classic. All of us sabermetric geeks sound really geeky a lot of the time. I wish we could start a movement to take our insights and stats and develop some simple language for them.
I think it’s true that there is an overwhelming proliferation of statistics. It’s part of the deal with open, community based approach to refining quantitative understanding of baseball, though.
Improving the way we analyze the game is necessarily an iterative process. That is to say, it would be extremely difficult for one person to have a sudden understanding of the one stat the neatly summarizes player performance. That fact is compounded by the exponential increase in technology: a statistic like Win Shares simply was unable to make use of the play-by-play data that a statistic like WAR utilizes.
Part of the problem is that smart people (people more like studes and cwyers than myself) come up with new ways to analyze information so fast that the old statistics can’t be thrown out fast enough. In the end, though, I think this is a good problem to have. It may have unfortunate byproducts, which frustrate people like Norman Chad, but I wouldn’t want it any other way.
by Tommy Bennett on Jul 21, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
true, but most of the old stats will do
I agree (especially with the smart people like me part…) but I haven’t invented many new stats. xFIP is the only one I can think of, and that was just a derivative of FIP. I’m more into presentation of stats and explaining stats.
For the geeky community, sure, go ahead and create new stats. But for the rest of the baseball world, I think we the old stats are fine. Just present them and explain them better (and without the geeky language) and you’d still provide a lot of useful info to the “normal” motivated and intelligent baseball fan.
VORP, WAR, and OPS are like Apple Pie, Baseball, and Chevrolet
Well, hopefully not quite like Chevy, but hopefully amid the plethora of statistics finding their way into parlance, these three will be able to stick. OPS pretty much is a staple at this point, but VORP and WAR aren’t, as it takes too much effort to explain how these metrics are calculated. But if one is to place a bit of faith here and trust that they are accurate reflections of value, then the concepts behind VORP and WAR is actually quite easy to explain.
by ProustianDisplay on Jul 22, 2009 9:03 AM EDT reply actions
Best way to explain WAR, I've found, is to say it sums up all the stats into one.
“Replacement level” takes longer to explain, really.
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