Interleague Attendance Nonsense

by erosen on Jul 2, 2009 12:49 PM EDT Comment 29 comments

[Sky: Great FanPost from Eric. Bumped to the front page.]

I've often seen articles and blog entries online about how great interleague is for attendance. And then some numbers get quoted that confirm that. From 2000-2008, the average interleague game had an attendance of 33,284 and all other games 29,981. That is +11%! Wow, interleague play is a GREAT thing for the teams/owners.

Well, not quite true. The distribution of games isn't the same. 66% of the interleague games in the sample were Friday through Sunday, compared to just 45% for the non-interleague games. I ran the attendance figures by day of week and got the following:

Mon +3.3%
Tue +6.7%
Wed +6.0%
Thu +3.3%
Fri +7.2%
Sat +7.1%
Sun +9.2%

If they had the same distribution of days of week, I come up with an expected attendance of 31913 per game; this nearly cuts the edge in half!

But, then the distribution on the calendar is also not the same; 87% of the interleague games were in June or July, while it was about 17% per month for the others.

Using just June and July the weekend distribution was still similar, 64% vs 44%; here are the attendance numbers by day of week for just those two months:

Mon +2.0%
Tue -0.9%
Wed -3.2%
Thu -4.9%
Fri +0.6%
Sat +2.6%
Sun +6.3%

Again, if they had the same distribution of days of week, I come up with an expected attendance of 31719 per game; this puts the two groups almost exactly even [Interleague +0.4%].

I'm going to restate that- if the interleague games weren't lumped onto Friday, Saturday and Sunday, there would be practically no difference in attendance [about 1000 total extra tickets per team per year, maybe 100 per game].

As the next pass I'll try and identify particular series that may outperform the rest [Mets-Yankees, Cubs-White Sox, Dodgers-Angels, etc]

Sky's edit: There are some more excellent charts and analysis in the comments, so read on...

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I'll do it again...

I’m going to restate that- if the interleague games weren’t lumped onto Friday, Saturday and Sunday, there would be practically no difference in attendance [about 1000 total extra tickets per team per year, maybe 100 per game].

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by Sky Kalkman on Jul 2, 2009 12:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

For the next round, please do all the rivalry games, even the ones that MLB has made up

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Jul 2, 2009 12:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You trying to say the Royals and Pirates aren't rivals?

If you were thinking, you wouldn't have thought that.

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?showforum=129

by Warden11 on Jul 2, 2009 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Isn't one the Seattle and D-Backs

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Jul 3, 2009 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought it was Seattle/SD

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by Jack Moore on Jul 3, 2009 1:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just as bad

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Jul 3, 2009 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great Post

I like interleague play, but I totally agree that the boost in attendance is overrated. I don’t think that teams with low attendance draw any better for uninteresting opponents in the other league than for the uninteresting opponents in their own league. That’s especially true, if we are comparing weekday games to each other or weekend games to each other.

"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Jul 2, 2009 2:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Tossing out the 123 rows without an attendance number...

VIS @ HOME (PARKID) InterLg Others %
SFN @ OAK (OAK01) 46749 25986 +80%
SLN @ KCA (KAN06) 36989 23216 +59%
CHN @ CHA (CHI12) 42147 31214 +35%
NYA @ NYN (NYC17) 53890 41698 +29%
PHI @ BAL (BAL12) 46775 37087 +26%
BOS @ ATL (ATL02) 47955 39046 +23%
HOU @ TEX (ARL02) 40754 34432 +18%
CIN @ CLE (CLE08) 36359 33113 +10%
LAA @ LAN (LOS03) 51707 47757 +8%
SDN @ SEA (SEA03) 43047 40730 +6%
NYN @ NYA (NYC16) 54671 51744 +6%
TEX @ HOU (HOU03) 40497 38840 +4%
SEA @ SDN (SAN01) 37530 36135 +4%
OAK @ SFN (SFO03) 41905 41116 +2%
CHA @ CHN (CHI11) 39646 39869 -1%
BAL @ ATL (ATL02) 39781 40253 -1%
MIL @ MIN (MIN03) 27802 28137 -1%
MIN @ MIL (MIL06) 35124 35571 -1%
FLO @ TBA (STP01) 19610 19939 -2%
WAS @ TOR (TOR02) 25870 27047 -5%
SEA @ SDN (SAN02) 35627 38835 -8%
TBA @ FLO (MIA01) 14700 19444 -25%

It didn’t make a whole lot of difference here, since one missing attendance figure only throws off a sample of 10-25 by so much However when we’re talking a sample of three games…

VIS @ HOME (PARKID) InterLg Others %
BOS @ FLO (MIA01) 31016 18342 +69%
NYA @ SDN (SAN01) 55310 35256 +57%
CLE @ CIN (CIN08) 47722 30678 +56%
NYA @ WAS (WAS10) 44997 29768 +51%
BOS @ ARI (PHO01) 45628 34394 +33%
ATL @ TBA (STP01) 25050 19549 +28%
LAA @ COL (DEN02) 44557 34796 +28%
SLN @ CLE (CLE08) 42431 33456 +27%
PIT @ KCA (KAN06) 30775 24424 +26%
SFN @ KCA (KAN06) 30551 24270 +26%
TEX @ FLO (MIA01) 23109 18431 +25%
…
TBA @ HOU (HOU03) 29592 39290 -25% 0.753168745
OAK @ LAN (LOS03) 36131 48047 -25% 0.75199284
PHI @ OAK (OAK01) 22184 29537 -25% 0.751057995
MIL @ DET (DET05) 25705 34543 -26% 0.744144979
LAN @ CLE (CLE08) 25204 33898 -26% 0.743524692
KCA @ COL (DEN02) 25880 35296 -27% 0.733227561
FLO @ TOR (TOR02) 19858 27201 -27% 0.730046689
FLO @ NYA (NYC16) 37445 52849 -29% 0.708528071
TBA @ WAS (WAS10) 22397 31652 -29% 0.707601415
ARI @ BAL (BAL12) 27024 38339 -30% 0.704869715
BOS @ MIL (MIL06) 25074 35805 -30% 0.700293255
WAS @ CHA (CHI12) 23045 33382 -31% 0.690342101
LAA @ MIL (MIL06) 24268 35499 -32% 0.683624891
SDN @ CHA (CHI12) 22647 33655 -33% 0.672916357
PIT @ CHA (CHI12) 22257 33665 -34% 0.661131739
TOR @ FLO (MIA01) 12273 19044 -36% 0.644454946
FLO @ OAK (OAK01) 18928 29615 -36% 0.639135573
SDN @ TBA (STP01) 12634 20083 -37% 0.629089279
PIT @ TBA (STP01) 12498 20086 -38% 0.622224435
DET @ FLO (MIA01) 9974 18921 -47% 0.527139158
COL @ TBA (STP01) 10602 20138 -47% 0.526467375

by erosen on Jul 2, 2009 3:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Most of the best matchups from the first grouping are between two teams in the same city or nearby. Of those greater than 10% increase:

Make sense:
New York
Chicago
SF/Oak
Missouri
Phi/Bal
Texas

Confuse me:
Bos/Atl

Seeing TB/FLA at the bottom of the list is funny, too. Fans in Floriday don’t go to see either team, so why would they go to see both?

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by Sky Kalkman on Jul 2, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Red Sox / Braves is because of the historical thing.

Even though the Braves switched names and/or cities multiple times… :\

OverTheMonster - ALLERGEN WARNING: May contain peanut butter.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 2, 2009 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought about that

But why would Braves fans down south care at all about the Red Sox?

I’d imagine there would be some Boston Red Sox fans who dislike the Braves (or even possibly some holdover Braves fans who still hate the Red Sox) in Boston, but those fans wouldn’t skew attendance figures because Boston always sells out, anyway.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Jul 6, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They don't.

It’s just for history’s sake.

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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 6, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I highly doubt that matters at all to fans in Atlanta

They failed to sell out playoff games. I am guessing that the reason ATL – BOS series sell well is because of “Red Sox Nation” not because the Braves used to play in Boston.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Jul 6, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep.

Unless there’s some 90+ year olds still rooting for the Bravos, I doubt anyone on either side gives a hoot. Now, if Atlanta had managed to dump Francouer on us, it’d be a different story.

OverTheMonster - ALLERGEN WARNING: May contain peanut butter.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 7, 2009 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Awesome

It’s definitely the case that the CLE/CIN games are terrific for attendance in Cincinnati—they regularly sell out, and are among the only games each year that do so. But the other games seem to be just another gamethis is fantastic info.

It also saved me. I was going to do a graph of the day comparing attendance in interleague vs. the rest of MLB games, but I was just going to parrot back the info MLB sells us. :)
-j

My blog: Basement-Dwellers.com

by JinAZ on Jul 2, 2009 3:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Nice post

How did you get the resources for this?

Derosa.

by vivaelpujols on Jul 3, 2009 5:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Data

I grabbed the retrosheet.org gamelog data for 2000-2008 and imported it into an Access database…

I re-ran some of this to look at all series— the stats suggest that most interleague match-ups aren’t worthwhile [from an attendance stand-point]. What about some non interleague match-ups?

With a minimum of 50 games between the two teams at a particular park, here are the match-ups that had the best and worst attendance relative to the other games at that park:

Yankees @ Rays +47%
Yankees @ Jays +39%
Yankees @ Orioles +37%
Red Sox @ Rays +35%
Cubs @ Brewers +29%
Mets @ Marlins +29%
Red Sox @ Orioles +25%
Red Sox @ Yankees +17%
Mets @ Braves +16%
Giants @ Dodgers +14%
White Sox @ Twins +14%
…
Marlins @ Braves -14%
Royals @ Twins -14%
Jays @ Rays -15%
Brewers @ Reds -17%
Tigers @ Royals -17%
Rays @ Orioles -20%
Jays @ Orioles -21%

-
Lowering the bar to 20 games [and excluding interleague matchups]:
Yankees @ A’s +60%
Yankees @ Rays +47%
Yankees @ Rangers +41%
Yankees @ Jays +39%
Yankees @ Orioles +37%
Yankees @ Royals +36%
Red Sox @ Rays +35%
Red Sox @ A’s +31%
Yankees @ Twins +30%
Cubs @ Brewers +29%
Mets @ Marlins +29%
Yankees @ Indians +28%
Yankees @ Tigers +27%
Red Sox @ Orioles +25%
Cubs @ Rockies +25%
Cubs @ D’Backs +24%
Red Sox @ Royals +23%
Cubs @ Marlins +23%
Yankees @ Mariners +22%
Yankees @ Angels +19%
Cubs @ Reds +19%
- Maybe the Yankees aren’t bad for baseball…
Royals @ Rays -21%
Marlins @ Pirates -21%
Jays @ Orioles -21%
Astros @ Marlins -21%
Pirates @ Marlins -23%
Jays @ A’s -23%
Rangers @ Rays -24%
Expos @ Mets -25%
Expos @ Marlins -27%

I’m working on another angle and will post a follow-up…

by erosen on Jul 3, 2009 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No clue what I did, but...

…the middle section above shouldn’t have the ‘strike-through’.

Looking at the top of that last list, it appears that the Yankees have a massive positive impact on teams’ attendance when they come to town. I have data for 725 Yankees road games; in those games, the home team got an average of 36,495 versus 27,892 for all of their other home games. For an average team, getting the Yankees to come for a three game series brings nearly 26,000 extra fans to the park. In 2004, the average ‘Fan Cost Index’ was $129.57 [which covers four tickets plus “average” extras- food, parking, etc].

That makes the Yankees series worth about $850k to an average team over an average alternative series. Drop the Red Sox [who don’t need the Yankees help to sell-out] and the figure jumps to $940k.

Thirteen teams have hosted the Yankees for 25+ games in the sample. Using their attendances in those games vs theirother home games, along with the fan cost index for each team, I’ve estimated what each of those games was worth to the team:

Team $PerGame:(TTLs)
Mets +$2.7M
A’s +$1.8M
Orioles +$1.5M (time 80 games = $122M!)
Rangers +$1.3M
Mariners +$1.2M
Jays +$1.1M
Indians +$1.0M
Rays +$930k
Tigers +$880k
Angels +$750k
Twins +$700k
Royals +$690k
White Sox +$620k
And, of course, this assumes that teams don’t jack up their prices when the Yankees come to town [and don’t discount for the lesser draws].

by erosen on Jul 3, 2009 5:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

And the Royals...

The Yankees are the onlyteam that drew better than average with the Royals coming in.

On a per game basis, the Indians, Rays and Rangers were the hardest hit, at $436k, $432k and -$419k respectively. With 81 total games, the Indians are the big losers at a total loss of $35M for having to allow the Royals to stink up their ballpark.

If I can find yearly fan cost index data, I’ll see if I can incorporate it into this. I’m pretty sure the data was available from Doug Pappas’ site [roadsidephotos.com], but since he passed a couple years ago, I think it was only available through 2004 [unless someone else continued his work in that area.

by erosen on Jul 3, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

so...the cubs are the yankees of the NL?

shudder. To think they help baseball;)

by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 3, 2009 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Are those numbers adjusted for day of the week?

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by Sky Kalkman on Jul 3, 2009 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No- I was going to but the samples got really small; there were only a handful that ere more than like 8 games, with the max around a dozen games.

by erosen on Jul 3, 2009 9:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Next step...

I took each team and got the average attendance in their road games versus a weighted average of the opponents other home games.

Yankees +29%
Red Sox +21%
Cubs +14%
Giants +11% *
Dodgers +5%
Cardinals +5%
D’Backs +3%
Reds +3%
Padres +1%
Mets +0%
A’s -1%
Rockies -2%
Braves -2%
Mariners -2%
Orioles -2%
Rays -3%
Astros -3%
Pirates -3%
Angels -4%
Rangers -4%
Indians -4%
Nationals -5%
Blue Jays -5%
Brewers -6%
Phillies -6%
Twins -7%
Marlins -7%
White Sox -8%
Tigers -8%
Royals -9%
Expos -12%

The giants stand out [IMO]—- they seem alittle out of place on the top end of the list… Looks like it probably wasn’t the team, but a particular player:

YEAR inc Bonds_CareerHR, SeasonHR
2000 +9 445, 49
2001 +15% 494, 73
2002 +17% 567, 46
2003 +23% 613, 45
2004 +18% 658, 45
2005 +3% 703, 5
2006 +7% 708, 26
2007 +8% 734, 28
2008 +0% -

As Bonds was blowing through milestones, the Giants road games did really well… when he missed nearly all of 2005, that disappeared. When he came back [though with more serious steroid allegations] it spiked back up alittle, and when he “retired”, it disappeared again.

by erosen on Jul 3, 2009 10:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I just heard Tom Verdicci and MLB Network show the non-adjusted interleague attendance numbers

They then said that (paraphrase), “it’s obvious that interleague play helps attendance”. I wanted to scream at him, “you’re wrong, you jerk, read BtB”. Seriously, how are people on national television, who are actually supposed to be factually right, allowed to be so uniformed?

Derosa.

by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 7:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I like your idea of not ACTUALLY screaming at the tv. I'll have to try that.

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by Sky Kalkman on Jul 4, 2009 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

OTOH

I was watching MLB Network today and the round table with Verducci, Costas and Reynolds about economics in baseball was actually very interesting.

Derosa.

by vivaelpujols on Jul 4, 2009 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The problem here isn't just the misrepresentation of attendance figures

It’s the assumption that an increase in attendance is always going to be good for the game. Earlier someone said that “Maybe the Yankees aren’t bad for baseball,” but just because they bring in fans FOR THEIR SERIES doesn’t mean that they’re improving the game OVERALL.

If one team dominates the league every year, they will be a huge attraction when they visit a city a few times per year. However, the lack of parity and competition also causes a disinterest in that city when that team is not in town.

Generating interest in baseball in the short-term could hurt the sport in the long run. Obviously performance-enhancing drugs is a clear example, but there are others as well.

Most hockey fans I know agree that replacing a tie with a shootout may generate some short-term interest, but actually makes the sport worse. Ditto for soccer. As an analog, what if instead of going to extra-innings, baseball just used an homerun derby?

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Jul 6, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs