Brewers Acquire Felipe Lopez from Diamondbacks in Salary Dump

From multiple Twitter sources, including @RotoWorld_BB, the Diamondbacks today traded Felipe Lopez to the Brewers in exchange for minor leaguers Cole Gillespie (OF) and Roque Mercedes (P). Before the season, John Sickels ranked Gillespie as a C prospect, which means his expected future value is about $.5M since he's already 25. I can't find Mercedes in Erik's spreadsheets, so he's likely even less valuable, which you might expect given he's a 22 year old reliever in A+ ball.

Felipe Lopez, well, he's going to make about $1.75M the rest of the way and can play a variety of infield positions. He just can't play them very well, with a career (well, since 2002) -11 UZR/150. Over 1/5 of the innings at 2B, he's actually been average, though, which is surprising given his play at short. If that holds and his wOBA the rest of the season is around .331, as ZiPS predicts, he's basically a league-average player, worth 1 WAR the rest of the way.

Earning slightly below free agent value, traded for some nothing prospects, and considering the importance of the games the Brewers have left to play, acquiring Lopez is a solid move by Milwaukee. And given that the Diamondbacks have little to play for in 2009, this is a nice salary dump for them. As minor trades go, this is a good one for both sides.

What do you think?

almost 3 years ago Sky Kalkman 8 comments 0 recs |

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The problem with this sort of analysis is that prospect evaluators

Underestimate the value of minor league relievers, particularly those that come from Latin America to the point of ignoring them completely. How much projected value did Clay Zavada have going into last season when he was a 24 year old heading into A-ball? Alberto Arias? Look how badly the boat was missed by prospect analysts on Ronald Belisario. Or Ramon Troncoso when he was a 23 year old reliever in an A+ league. The point is that we need to figure out a better way of projecting the actual value of live arm relievers rather than just writing them off because Sickels or BA don’t mention them in their prospect reports.

by Rox Girl on Jul 19, 2009 7:52 PM EDT reply actions

That's a good point, if true.

I don’t know enough about prospects — who were the most recent guys to be highly touted as relievers by BA and JS? Who were the most recent relief prospects to actually make it? Joey Devine?

And, remember, even if a reliever turns into a 3.50 ERA guy in 60 IP, that’s surprisingly not valuable. (Less than 1 WAR, and a touch over in a setup role.)

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by Sky Kalkman on Jul 19, 2009 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Still, it's something,

If Arizona was facing the prospect of having to spend on the FA market for that < 1 WAR, or otherwise get subreplacement work (which knowing their system they might have been) for a reliever, who typically get vastly overpaid to their relative value, then the added future cost savings could be an important part of this trade. Not every system has pure replacement level talent waiting in the wings.

by Rox Girl on Jul 19, 2009 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Bard?

@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.

by bdalebs on Jul 19, 2009 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Brewers made out well

Gillespie grades out as a 4th OF and Mercedes looks like an organizational guy to me.

Brewers pick up a needed commodity on multiple ends and at the very least if they dont make the playoffs, didnt give up much for the chance. Wont push them over the top, but I agree with the 1 extra win analysis. Probably pushes them up to 83 wins on the year.

Speculation is that this is a prelim move for another one involving a pitcher for the Brewers.

by backtocali on Jul 19, 2009 11:28 PM EDT reply actions

Here's hoping, from where I sit

that this sets up dealing Hardy to the M’s. (We have a starter or two available, after all, and Melvin and Zduriencik are obviously comfortable working together.)

by The Ancient Mariner on Jul 20, 2009 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions

Bedard or Washburn

My brother lives in Seattle and seems to think that the Mariners, despite their good season are more long term, and might start dumping salary soon.

Hardy to the M’s works nice, but I dont think a straight up Bedard or Washburn deal works well for the Brewers, seeing as how Hardy has 2 years still before FA. Unless the deal was a one for one, and the Brewers get Bedard and dont have to pay a cent for his remaining salary. Even then I think the Brewers would be in line for a mid level prospect. And then, does a team in the hunt want to commit to a rookie who has a questionable bat at a premium defensive spot? (Escobar).

by backtocali on Jul 20, 2009 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions