Revisiting Trades: 2007 Mark Teixeira BlockBuster
by The_Fan on Jul 17, 2009 11:17 AM EDT
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PrintIn the summer of July 2007, the Braves were in a tight race for the NL East. They were 3 1/2 games back of the Mets. They needed an established hitter to replace the weak spot in their order, 1st Base. The Braves had been trying to deal for a 1st baseman, at any cost. They were all out buyers with a Win-Now strategy.
July 31, 2007 Mark Teixeira and Ron Mahay are traded to the Atlanta Braves for Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison, and Beau Jones.
The Braves had filled a void in the field and recieved an established hitter and a good bullpen piece. They had gave up Top Prospects to try and make it to the playoffs. Now lets visit how good Teixeira and Mahay did with the Rangers and Braves.
Mark Teixeira Before Trade
| Games | AVG | HR | RBI |
| 78 | 0.297 | 13 | 49 |
Mark Teixera After Trade
| Games | AVG | HR | RBI |
| 54 | 0.317 | 17 | 56 |
As you can see Teixeira did way better with the Braves than he did with the Rangers. I don't know if he was worth all those prospects, but wait and see.
Ron Mahay Before Trade
| Games | Innings | E.R.A. | W | L | SO |
| 28 | 39 | 2.77 | 2 | 0 | 32 |
Ron Mahay After Trade
| Games | Innings | E.R.A. | W | L | SO |
| 30 | 28 | 2.25 | 1 | 0 | 23 |
Mahay did better E.R.A. wise, but he was probably worth one of the prospects given to the Rangers. He was a good piece to add for a team in the hunt.
For the prospects acquired, I am just going to do their career stats in the majors to give an idea of what they have done for the Rangers so far.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
| Games | AVG | HR | RBI |
| 221 | 0.255 | 20 | 88 |
Elvis Andrus
| Games | AVG | HR | RBI |
| 74 | 0.253 | 3 | 15 |
Neftali Feliz
No Major League Stats
Matt Harrison
Games
Innings
E.R.A.
W
L
SO
26
181
5.76
13
8
76
Beau Jones
No Major League Stats
As you can see, none of these players have amounted to much. Mostly they are just "Prospects" worth a look.
What happened after deadline
The Braves did not make the playoffs. They ended 5 games back from the Phillies. I say that the Rangers won this trade because they got top rated prospects for some of their best players. The Braves considerably weakened their farm system while not making the playoffs. Ron Mahay signed with the Royals the next season and Mark Teixeira was traded again in 2008 for Casey Kotchman and Steve Marek. The Braves definitely lost this trade.
What does everyone else think about this trade and who the winner of the deal was.
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This was a crazy haul for the Rangers. Even if the Braves were guaranteed of a playoff birth in 2007, I dont' think it was fair.
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not even close
the rangers went from an OK farm to one stacked with talent becuse of this trade. Huge Haul
I Have Spoken.
If anyone can find where these prospects were rated overall at the time of the deal, that'd be cool.
Tex’s value is easy to calculate. Just curious how laughable this trade really was.
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this is rating in organization not sickels ratings, I don't know where to find those
Elvis Andrus – #2 in Braves organization
Jarrod Saltalamacchia – #1 in Braves Organization
Neftali Feliz – #5 in Baves Organization
Matt Harrison – #3 in Braves Organization
Beau Jones – #4 in Braves organization
So pretty much the Braves traded their top 5 prospects for Teixera and Mahay
I Have Spoken.
all the Braves in the 2007 BA's top 100
BA’s top 100:
Salty: #36
Andrus: #65
Harrison: #90
Sickels: (rankings are in organization)
Andrus: B+
Salty: B
Harrison: B
Feliz: C+
Jones: Sickels didn’t assign a specific grade for him, but he was mentioned, so I’ll say C
><
How was Feliz not in the top 100?
That kid is amazing.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 17, 2009 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I get about 51.6MM of value in the prospect package at the time of trade
at the time of trade.
I get that Teixeira was worth about 13.5MM in surplus value to the Braves. Had Atlanta held on to him and taken the draft picks, he would’ve net 27.5 MM of surplus value to the Braves. Mahay, including Type B compensation, provided Atlanta with 3.4MM of surplus value.
Texas gave up 30.9MM of value, and got back 51.6MM of value. +18.2 gain. Massive, massive win for Texas.
Now, to the Teix for Kotchman + Marek trade.
Teixeira provided 14.3MM of value to the Angels (wow his 2008 was so much better than his 2007),
Marek was a C pitching prospect, so 2.1MM there.
I’m going to fudge a bit with Kotchman. He was a 2.6 WAR player in ‘07, and a 1.1 WAR player in ’08 (he struggled big time after the trade though). So, at the time of trade, I’m going to say Kotchman was estimated to be a 1.5 WAR player going forward, and was in arb 1 as a super 2 in ‘08. Using 40/60/80 and projecting him as a 1.5 WAR player all years and saying he’d get Type B compensation (yeah, I very roughly fudged these numbers). Using those projections, he’d net about 18.7MM in surplus value to the Braves.
20.8MM acquired by ATL for 14.3MM value given up, for a 6.5MM surplus there.
6.5MM surplus in Kotchman/Marek + 13.5MM production from Teix + 3.4MM for Mahay = 23.4MM total value acquired for Atlanta.
In other words, wow.
><
where are you getting the grade value conversion?
In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor on FK
by designatedforassignment on Jul 18, 2009 2:26 AM EDT up reply actions
It's work done by Victor Wang, summarized in many places, including here:
Thanks thats really useful.
I have been doing some Possible Trade Partners/Assets posts over at Athletics Nation and that will be really useful going forward.
In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor on FK
by designatedforassignment on Jul 18, 2009 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions
When the next one goes up I will
I guess the question becomes how much actual expected value (the economic term) corresponds to expected value the market concept. Just because you win the expected value part of a trade doesn’t mean you win the chess match with your opposing GM and you squeeze the stone for all that the trade market will bare.
In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor on FK
by designatedforassignment on Jul 18, 2009 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions
That's a great point.
Free agents aren’t worth $4.5M per marginal win most of the time. But we still rate signings against that number because if a GM decides to play that game, we need to judge him by that game’s rules.
Of course, I still believe the “expected value” model will work decently when you bump up a veteran’s value thanks to “playoff leverage” and discount the value of prospects a bit more because it’s value to be recognized in the future, not right now.
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by Sky Kalkman on Jul 18, 2009 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Beau Jones #4?
I didn’t realize he was more highly regarded than Feliz at the time of the trade.
My (weak) understanding of it was Jones was basically a minor throw-in ontop of the rest of the trade.
The Rangers really did fleece the Braves there.
that doesn't sound right
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland - 2009 Rangers Minor League POY
Fan, can you use some defensive stats for these as well?
Maybe some better stats than ERA, W-L, and RBIs too.
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
ok
I was just giving a general outline, I want to do more of these, so I’ll do it next time, which stats do you want?
I Have Spoken.
My preferences:
OBP, SLG, wOBA, PA, UZR/PMR/+-, WAR
ERA, FIP/xFIP/tRA, IP, K- BB- and GB-rates
Or some subset thereof.
I also think an objective projection through that point in time would be really cool, maybe even multi-year. We’re working on that…
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I see on MLB Daily Dish they have those little lines of stats, do you know how I can make those?
I Have Spoken.
You have to be an author.
And that’s only going to be the most basic of stats.
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
These.
Maybe not ERA, if tRA or FIP is available. Maybe pRAA too.
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
Statcorner has tRA and pRAA.
Cube doesn’t have very many stats – BBRef and FanGraphs are better.
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
I voted for the Braves because Tex had a lot of RBI's!
Seriously though, this was one of the most lopsided trades in a while. Either one of Elvis, Feliz or Saltamachiato (and probably Harrison) are way more valuable than 1 year of Texeira. All 3 is an absolute fleecing.
Derosa.
Also, it speaks to the Braves scouting that they were able to maintain a very solid system
Even after they traded their top 5 prospects to get Tex.
Derosa.
Not as bad for the Braves as people make it out to be
They essentially only lost two valuable pieces: Feliz and Andrus. Salty, Beau, and Harrison have done little or nothing in the majors and don’t have a bright future anymore. The other two are yet to make a substantial impact as well. I think in 5 years if both Andrus and Feliz have realized their potential, then the braves lost big time but right now all they can bank on is potential whereas the braves got real production. It’s also important to note that the comp. pick for Mahay has turned into a top braves’ prospect: Brett DeVall. The big loss is that they could have used these guys (salty, harrison, jones) separately to land cheaper, controllable talent
by McCann's the Man on Jul 18, 2009 3:20 PM EDT reply actions
The Braves didn't make the playoffs
in either year they had Teixeira. So from that perspective it was an epic failure by Atlanta.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland - 2009 Rangers Minor League POY
Feliz and Andrus are still looking like excellent players. On that alone, it's a big win for the Rangers.
I don’t know much about Beau and Harrison, but Salty’s still got promise at age 24.
I hate the whole “only have potential” argument. Would anyone you trade a bench player, who has positive WAR this year, for those two prospects? No way. Of course there’s less of a chance that they turn into MLB regulars than there is for Tex or any other current MLBer. But the upside is worth the risk. And their expected value (not upside, but mathematical expected average production) plus expected salaries are worth a lot more than what Tex provided.
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I never said that it wasn’t a big win for the Rangers and I believe it is but let’s not act like this was the worst trade in history made by the braves. No one would trade those two prospects for just any positive WAR player but like I said until they do anything in the majors judging this trade is at best a work in progress. Heck DeVall could turn out to be an above average starter and Feliz could experience major arm troubles. If Andrus doesn’t turn into a top 7 SS does that mean Atlanta won in that scenario? Lots can still happen
by McCann's the Man on Jul 19, 2009 2:18 AM EDT reply actions
and salty looks like nothing more than a backup catcher, his OPS is on a Francoeur level and he doesn’t play good defense so no making up for the lack of hitting
by McCann's the Man on Jul 19, 2009 2:20 AM EDT reply actions
So, does that mean Atlanta had some awesome scouting or something?
What we’re saying is that, at the moment, that’s a lot of players who should turn out to be pretty good, with high ceilings. Unless most of them come no where near their expected careers, then Atlanta gave up a LOT to get someone who didn’t help them much and wasn’t worth it in his time there – not considering who they got for him when they traded him to the Angels though, because that probably wasn’t the original plan.
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
Salty's D has been
very good behind the plate this year. It is obvious that he put in a lot of work over the winter and ST on his defense. Unfortunately, at the expense of his offense.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland - 2009 Rangers Minor League POY
I'll let RJ chime in with some work he's done quantifying PB/WP, SB/CS, etc...
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Should I have quantified my "very good" by saying
relative to last year? :)
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland - 2009 Rangers Minor League POY
Makes me feel a bit better about the Mulder trade.
Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.
Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU
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