New Arms of the Week: End of the First Half

by Harry Pavlidis on Jul 16, 2009 12:16 PM EDT in Player Profiles Comment 20 comments

The week of July 6 had more rookie pitching debuts than recent weeks. We got five new arms, not to mention the gaggle of minor leaguers in the Futures Game. Spin movement graphs and flight paths after the jump.

Jeff Stevens	#	vs LHH	vs RHH	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z	DEG	RPM
Curveball	5	3	2	74.4	1.9	-10.0	10.8	1,687.7
Fastball	7	4	3	92.3	-3.8	9.5	201.6	2,126.2

The Cubs got Stevens in the Mark DeRosa trade. He showed just two pitches, both thrown over-the-top.

Luis Valdez	#	vs LHH	vs RHH	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z	DEG	RPM
Change-up	2	1	1	87.0	-2.8	6.1	209.1	1,392.5
Sinker	2	0	2	94.8	-5.9	5.2	228.9	1,663.8
Fastball	6	5	1	94.6	-4.3	7.7	209.0	1,879.4
Slider	2	0	2	86.0	2.7	-0.6	72.9	550.6

Valdez is keeping a roster spot warm for Tommy Hanson, who is staying on schedule in High-A. Valdez is a promising reliever, originally signed by Pittsburgh before coming to Atlanta as a minor-league free agent.

Marc Rzepczynski	#	vs LHH	vs RHH	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z	DEG	RPM
Change-up	14	0	14	82.8	8.0	2.5	105.1	1,645.7
Sinker	99	14	85	88.3	10.3	2.1	101.4	2,107.7
Fastball	6	1	5	88.4	7.6	7.3	133.2	2,082.1
Slider	79	14	65	80.7	-2.1	-3.2	264.2	760.3
Unknown	1	0	1	67.1	3.7	-3.2	48.7	714.5

The Blue Jays alone could keep this series alive. Rzepczynski (pronounced "Marc") is a 23-year old lefty who gets a lot of ground balls and a lot of strike-outs in the minors.

Robert Manuel	#	vs LHH	vs RHH	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z	DEG	RPM
Change-up	13	12	1	79.5	-5.6	8.8	212.8	1,862.2
Fastball	38	32	6	85.7	-3.3	11.1	196.3	2,219.9
Slider	15	5	10	80.1	3.0	5.0	148.8	1,072.1

Manuel has 326 strikeouts and just 59 walks in nearly 350 minor league innings. Manuel is a young, right-handed soft-tosser acquired from the Mets in 2006 for Dave Williams.

Ryan Webb	#	vs LHH	vs RHH	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z	DEG	RPM
Change-up	1	1	0	86.1	-8.8	3.7	246.9	1,830.7
Curveball	7	3	4	87.2	2.2	-5.7	20.3	1,205.3
Sinker	2	2	0	95.6	-8.7	5.2	239.2	2,162.4
Fastball	11	5	6	97.1	-7.2	9.5	217.4	2,575.2
Slider	5	0	5	88.1	1.2	1.4	140.5	379.6

Lost in the shuffle of a no-htter, Webb's debut against the Giants was impressive. I caught his inning on TV and his breaking stuff was just silly. The umpire couldn't pick it up at first, but he figured it out quickly. The hitters, not so much. Webb became a Padre in the Scott Hairston trade.

PFX_X and PFX_Z are the x- and y-axises on the Spin Movement graphs. I didn't include Webb's change, but I did include Rzepczynski's "unknown" pitch for yuks.

Contemplate the top-spin on that 87mph curveball. Yikes. I think Ryan Webb is worth keeping an eye on.

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So at the risk of sounding like a total noob...

…how do Stevens’ pitches look? I’ve heard good things about his curve ball. That looks like some impressive break from the first base angle. And I would assume throwing a 70+ MPH curve ball vs. a 90+ fast ball is good, no?

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by dat cubfan daver on Jul 16, 2009 12:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Tough to say

It does look good, it drops like a brick, but I suspect it isn’t too hard to tell the pitches apart, his fastball is rather straight, but, yes, I’d think that huge speed difference could make it tough on hitters in short spurts. If that’s all he has to throw, then it’s pretty clear why he’s a reliever.

by Harry Pavlidis on Jul 16, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Makes sense.

Let’s hope he can get that fastball moving around a bit more. Thanks!

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by dat cubfan daver on Jul 16, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is there a prospect report on Stevens indicating any other pitches?

Did Marc (great pronunciation guide btw) throw a knuckleball maybe?

Is that Manuel pitch more of a slutter?

by JBrew on Jul 16, 2009 12:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Change-up

Probably not (check out the release point in the flight path, it’s not a real pitch, I’m guessing)

Could be

by Harry Pavlidis on Jul 16, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Seems like a curveball...

Did he maybe slip on the mound while throwing it?

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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 16, 2009 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Slutter? Really?

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by dat cubfan daver on Jul 17, 2009 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the cutter -> curve continuum

cutter
slutter
slider
slurve
curve

by Harry Pavlidis on Jul 17, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've heard "slurve" before...

…but never “slutter.” Somehow I don’t see the latter catching on in too many big league TV/radio booths. Made me laugh, though.

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by dat cubfan daver on Jul 17, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've heard it

It isn’t a new term, perhaps not well known.

by Harry Pavlidis on Jul 17, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Question Harry? Is there any way to get a comparison graphs for breaks on balls?

Such as average slider and “good” slider. I think it is nice for comps between the various pitcher’s pitches, but it might be nice to see movement of similar pitches.

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by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Jul 16, 2009 1:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I, too, would love to have an easy way to add context to these tables and graphs.

Present the values relative to average? (2.4 more horizontal inches than average, 3.5 mph slower, etc.?)

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by Sky Kalkman on Jul 16, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is something like this what you are looking for?

Courtesy of Brooks Baseball PITCHf/x wiki

by JBrew on Jul 16, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That helps.

But it would be nice to have it super-imposed on a graph of one player’s pitches. Or a player’s specific pitch f/x numbers related to average somehow. I don’t want to go look up averages somewhere else or even compare to a chart at the beginning of an article, and I’m probably more familiar with pitch f/x than the average fan.

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by Sky Kalkman on Jul 16, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ryan Webb has filthy stuff

He pitched an inning during Sanchez complete game, and looked amazing. He threw close to 100 on the fastball and dropped in a 88 MPH curve and a change… of course you knew that already :)

Derosa.

by vivaelpujols on Jul 16, 2009 1:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It was funny

I’m in SF, just a few blocks from the park (visible from my hotel) watching the end of a no-hitter, and what I remember most was Webb’s stuff, not Sanchez’s.

ALso, I’ll think about a new flight path presentation that includes a baseline/average ….

by Harry Pavlidis on Jul 16, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Aren't flight paths impacted by where the pitch ends up?

That would make average hard to do.

Derosa.

by vivaelpujols on Jul 16, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You could change the path to follow the same initial trajectory.

You’d lose knowledge about where each pitcher likes to throw the ball, but you’d see the relative paths well.

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by Sky Kalkman on Jul 16, 2009 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

not at all

The whole path is based on the initial flight characteristics, as captured by gameday. Those 9 (8, one is fixed) values are averaged to make flight path.

by Harry Pavlidis on Jul 16, 2009 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs