Matt Holliday to the Braves? - MLB Daily Dish

I just saw this rumor about the A's possibly (probably not) trading Matt Holliday to the Braves in exchange for "only" Yunel Escobar. This would be a steal for the A's, even if they picked up all of Holliday's remaining 2009 contract.

Holliday's due about $6M the rest of 2009 and might produce, say, 3 more WAR, which is worth $14M on the FA market. The team losing him after the season would also collect a nice Type A package of draft picks, worth about $5M according to Victor Wang. Net gain? $13M

Now, take Escobar. He's a 3 WAR player who's (I believe) entering his first arbitration season next year. Over those three seasons, he'll be worth $14M each year ($42M total) and be paid about 60% of that in arbitration ($25M), at most, since defense is underrated in the arb process. This year, he makes nothing, and will provide 1.5 more WAR, worth $7M on the FA market. That's $25M in payments for $49M in value through 2012, or a net value of $24M, not including any potential draft pick package when he leaves.

So, do you want $13M in excess value or $24M? (Rhetorical question.) Sure, the Braves and Athletics are in different situations, with the former valuing every additional win this year nearly infinitely more than the latter. And that makes this trade a zero sum game. But it's hard to believe the 1.5 wins the Braves would pick up this season would be more important than Escobar's value over the next three seasons, even if the A's picked up Holliday's salary this year. And even if those 1.5 wins really are critical, they could probably pick up somebody better than Holliday, due to Escobar's amazing value.

almost 3 years ago Sky Kalkman 9 comments 0 recs |

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I saw that.

Even if they throw in Cabrera, I think it’s worth it.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 14, 2009 11:36 PM EDT reply actions

Escobar's got some non-statistical issues...

He and Bobby Cox are at ends with each other, IIRC, and he’s not the most driven player either, I’ve heard.

@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.

by bdalebs on Jul 14, 2009 11:51 PM EDT reply actions

Sky, do you not have Cot's Baseball Contracts bookmarked?

Honest question. It’s THE site for figuring out contracts and service time.

It’s actually the case that Escobar is not even in arbitration next season, unless the Super Twos work out very oddly. The A’s would be getting four (and an irrelevant half) years out of Escobar for the estimated money above.

Escobar’s already 27, so projecting him at the same level for 4 more years is kinda shady, but even assuming he declines by half a win a season after next year, the trade is still a blowout win for the A’s… to the point where I’d actually be willing to throw in a top prospect BESIDES Holliday to make it happen (perhaps Dustin Coleman, who would become less needed with the acquisition of Escobar).

I understand that there’s some risk of head-case-itude, but I think said risk is more than outweighed by value.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Jul 15, 2009 12:56 PM EDT reply actions

Oh, I love Cot's.

I have a hard time figuring out their playing time estimates, though, because they’re always behind. (And I’m not up on my super-two definition.) Judging just on PAs, Escobar will have about 2.5 seasons under his belt after 2009. Is that arb-eligible? Super-2?

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by Sky Kalkman on Jul 15, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Super 2 is usually 2 years and 125 days+

I’d say 120-140 is “questionable” and 140-171 is “certain” to be a Super 2.

IIRC, Escobar is only going to end up with about 2.100.

by PaulThomas on Jul 15, 2009 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions

So, short story is that Yunel has one more "free" year and three years of arbitration coming up?

Jeesh, I’m surprised Billy Beane can contain himself.

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by Sky Kalkman on Jul 15, 2009 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Super 2:

Q: When does a player become eligible for salary arbitration?
A: A player with three or more years of service, but less than six years, may file for salary arbitration. In addition, a player can be classified as a “Super Two” and be eligible for arbitration with less than three years of service. A player with at least two but less than three years of Major League service shall be eligible for salary arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and he ranks in the top 17 percent in total service in the class of Players who have at least two but less than three years of Major League service, however accumulated, but with at least 86 days of service accumulated during the immediately preceding season.

@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.

by bdalebs on Jul 17, 2009 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Surprised te Braves are leading the poll there. Reminds me of the whole Peavy thing in the offseason. Escobar alone was too much to give up for Peavy, but most people’s justification for the trade consisted of saying the word “ace” over and over again.

by VictorW on Jul 16, 2009 8:40 PM EDT reply actions