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Around SBN: Guest Blogger: Juco All-American Answers Five Questions

About a week ago, the Athletics acquired Scott Hairston from the Padres for minor league P Ryan Webb and P Craig Italiano and a PTBNL. Today, the PTBNL was named, and it was pitcher Sean Gallagher, who was once the centerpiece of the deal that sent Rich Harden to Chicago. I analyzed this trade when it happened, and said it was a big win for the Athletics. This development does even up the trade a bit for Oakland, but with a bunch of young arms in the system, Beane had room to work with. I still like the acquisition of the cost-controlled player with the major league track record in Hairston here. Gallagher could very well be a quite productive player in PETCO, but that doesn't make him any more valuable than he would be in Oakland or anywhere else, for that matter. I still think the trade is a minor win for Oakland.

4 months ago Jmlogo_tiny Jack Moore 8 comments 0 recs  | 

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Minor Win

Considering Hairston is a injury plagued player. Gallagher will probably flourish in Petco. The only reason the Athletics traded for Hairston is to replace Holliday next year

I Have Spoken.

by The_Fan on Jul 13, 2009 7:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I would flourish in PETCO.

It doesn’t make me any more valuable as a pitcher.

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by Jack Moore on Jul 13, 2009 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know

As in fantasy value yes, but Webb and Gallagher for a injury plagued veteran?

I Have Spoken.

by The_Fan on Jul 13, 2009 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, not as in fantasy value.

Pick a pitcher. Say, Vicente Padilla. He’s had a pretty average career. Career 4.46 FIP, which is a pretty good estimate of what we like to call his “true talent” ERA. Put an average defense behind him, in an average park, and he’s a 4.46 ERA pitcher. Put him in PETCO Park, he might put up a 3.80 ERA. Does that mean that he’s worth more, now that he’s pitching in San Diego? No, not really, because you have to consider the context. San Diego can still find better pitchers, and teams that would trade for him should not consider him more valuable because his ERA is higher. He’s still a 4.46 true talent ERA pitcher. Webb is a back-end starter at best, likely not worth much over replacement. Italiano is destined for the bullpen, and bullpen pitchers have very little value. Gallagher’s advantage over Hairston is the fact that he’s under team control for longer. Hairston has shown the potential to play at or above a major league average level, which is worth 10 million dollars plus. He’s being paid 1.5 million this year and is under team control for the next few years. Gallagher may have the potential to beat that, but Hairston’s major league track record makes him a valuable commodity right now, and Gallagher’s recent history of injuries and the fact that he was beaten out in the A’s rotation by 5 other nobodies seems to suggest that he’s not a ML average player, even considering potential.

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by Jack Moore on Jul 13, 2009 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Are any of the pitchers fly ball pitchers?

Wouldn’t you expect fly ball pitchers to be affected more by a park like Petco than ground ball pitchers?

I have no idea how big the size of the effect would be, but it seems like it could make some difference.

by Dan Turkenkopf on Jul 13, 2009 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would assume that yes.

But MGL’s study on speed affecting (well, not affecting) UZR range ratings by size of ballpark has convinced me that “truisms” like this really need to be tested.

Maybe, for example, fly ball pitchers give up lots of easy fly balls and huge bombs, so parks don’t matter. And maybe ground ball pitchers, when they give up fly balls, have them travel between 380 and 420 feet, so park distance really matters a lot. Maybe.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 13, 2009 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

"5 other nobodies"

I wouldnt consider Cahill/Anderson/Mazzaro nobodies, but they were rushed and ready faster thanexpected.
Honestly, Braden/Outman looked like relievers early on and they flat out beat Gallagher for a rotation spot in spring.
  I put Gallagher slightly ahead of Gio/Eveland/Simmons etc, but his injuries and control issues put him 0out of favor it seems. They all project as #3-5 pitchers and finding those types arent too difficult to find.

Gallagher i’d say is a slightly younger version of chad gaudin

by Asfan4ever723 on Jul 13, 2009 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not entirely true

PETCO suppresses home runs more than anything else. Gallagher has a career .85 GB/FB ratio, which is pretty extreme. Not doing any hardcore park calculations, we can expect that Gallagher will benefit more from PETCO than other pitchers. This is the same with strikeout pitchers pitching in front of a bad defense, and vice versa.

Derosa.

by vivaelpujols on Jul 14, 2009 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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