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I've been making a big effort to stay positive lately, but sometimes it's worth discussing something that's poorly done so that others can do it better. This article by Forbes is an example of baseball analysis that really misses the boat.

The main flaw is that the author compares the salary of each player to the other players at the same position. So if a position is full of overpaid players, nobody will rate as overpaid because they don't earn more than the rest. (Cough cough first base.)

Derek Jeter is cited as an example of an overpaid player, not because his performance isn't worth the money, but because the next highest AL shortstop (evidently we're limited to players in the same league now) earns $4M this year. Uh, isn't that really just a good argument that Orlando Cabrera is underpaid?

The author then argues that the most overpaid players aren't the mediocre guys getting big bucks or the "fading veterans finishing out big contracts". Instead, it's somehow the stars who are the most overpaid. Um, no. A good analysis of overpaid players would compare what each player should earn to what they actually do. And the stars are so much better than the mediocre players that they deserve the huge bucks. Carlos Beltran somehow gets a bad rap in the article when one Beltran is worth 3-4 league average players and earn only about twice as much. And why are we giving aging veterans a pass? I don't even understand the argument behind that one.

Switching gears to the methodology, players were rated by averaging batting average, home runs, runs batted in, and OPS (which the author notes is "now a major metric of production".) By including OPS, the other three metrics are overkill, and last I checked, defense matters. When you argue that Brian Roberts at $8M is one of the worst deals in baseball, you've done something seriously wrong.

Uh, hey, you guys at Forbes, I don't know much about finance, but if your advice in that department is anywhere near as shoddy as your baseball analysis, you've lost me as a potential customer.

over 2 years ago Limes_125_tiny Sky Kalkman 25 comments 0 recs  | 

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The non-linearity thing

Is what really kills me. Why would you assume that twice as much production is only worth twice the price? It seems pretty obvious that a player who hit 80 home runs would be worth more than twice what a player who hit 40 home runs would be worth.

But leaving out defense altogether is just sloppy.

by Tommy Bennett on Jul 12, 2009 1:39 PM EDT reply actions  

Well, I'd argue that pay:performance IS linear, if you go by WAR.

But this article seems to be arguing that each extra WAR is LESS valuable than the previous one.

And, actually, I may get your point now: If 10 home runs is “replacement level”, then the better player in your example leads in home runs over replacement 70 to 30, which is 2.3 times more valuable.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 12, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Right. If he were using WAR

it would absolutely be linear. But he’s using OPS and HR and RBI and all that.

by Tommy Bennett on Jul 12, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

He needs to incorporate everything

With Leadership alone, Jeter is worth 8 million

No one goes there anymore, it's too crowded. - Yogi Berra

by trademan56 on Jul 12, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

WAR is actually pretty linear nowadays

When I looked at Pennants Added, I found that a 10 WAR player has basically the same value as two 5 WAR players. David Gassko did the same study a while back and found that the value of a win in fact decreases at the highest levels, although I think my methodology was a little more solid. Still the point is that it doesn’t appear that the pay scale should be exponential.

Derosa.

by vivaelpujols on Jul 12, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

While I'm never one to disbelieve anything Dave Gassko does...

He didn’t account for the fact that on better teams, a high WAR player is more likely to push a decent player to the bench. For example, on the Yankees, one of Melky/Gardner would play full time if the other wasn’t around. Or if Tex was gone, Swisher would be at 1B with Melky/Gardner both playing. Crappy teams can move people around to push a worse player off the field.

Gassko doesn’t think that effect is significant, but I’d like to see it addressed to really convince me.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 12, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes I agree with that

I would like to re-run the study (again), but instead of using value over replacement level, I would use value over average player on that team. So a player going to a 90 win team wouldn’t be replacing a replacement level player, he would be replacing a 1.7 WAR player (90-48 / 25) . How does that sound to you?

Derosa.

by vivaelpujols on Jul 12, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's pretty interesting.

A 70 win team would have 22 WAR or about .9 per player.

Actually, the starting lineup has more like 15 players (8/9 position players, 5 starters, and 1.5 significant relievers.)

My guess is that you don’t want the average player, but more like the median player. Or a bit worse, like the 25th percentile player.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 12, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good Shot

Like tbsmkdn said, he needs to use defense too

No one goes there anymore, it's too crowded. - Yogi Berra

by trademan56 on Jul 12, 2009 2:05 PM EDT reply actions  

I feel the need to point out that Orlando Cabrera is absolutely overpaid at $4 million a year

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Jul 12, 2009 2:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Yeah's he's been bad this year

But he was worth over $15 million last season by WAR, more than earning his $10 million salary. Last time he was overpaid by WAR? 2004.

by Tommy Bennett on Jul 12, 2009 2:48 PM EDT reply actions  

Good process, bad results.

It happens.

"You end up with a name like ‘Outman,’" he said last week. "What else are you going to do? You’re going to get people out, man." ~ Dallas Braden

Free Travis Buck.

by Blicks on Jul 12, 2009 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Instant credibility killer #1: Misspell Holliday.

Forbes fail.

"You end up with a name like ‘Outman,’" he said last week. "What else are you going to do? You’re going to get people out, man." ~ Dallas Braden

Free Travis Buck.

by Blicks on Jul 12, 2009 5:26 PM EDT reply actions  

It is kinda annoying when people confuse Halladay and Holliday.

But Holiday/Holliday is probably something the spell check changed.

OverTheMonster - ALLERGEN WARNING: May contain peanut butter.

by bdalebs on Jul 12, 2009 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Any article calling Beltran overpaid is a bad one

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Jul 13, 2009 12:12 AM EDT reply actions  

He's always been underrated in the mainstream

but lately it seems like they are really bashing on him. He might be the most underrated player right now.

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Jul 13, 2009 4:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

It's pretty clear

that the article ought to be titled, “Baseball’s Most Overpaid Players, Compared to Their Value to Your Fantasy Team.”

by Tom (RFTN) on Jul 13, 2009 8:55 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

BRIAN ROBERTS?!!!!

Are you kidding me?

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.

GET THAT VORP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!

by baetown415 on Jul 14, 2009 3:51 AM EDT reply actions  

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