BtB Power Rankings: Through Tuesday, June 30th, 2009

Welcome to our weekly ranking of all the MLB teams!  In this ranking, we use aggregate team hitting, pitching, and fielding statistics--not team wins, losses, runs scored, or runs allowed--to evaluate the performance of teams to date.  You can think of the estimated winning percentage (eW%) below as how we'd expect teams to fall out if we threw teams with these aggregate statistics into one big league and let them battle it out for thousands of games.

The table is sortable if you click in the header.  All data are park-adjusted when possible.  A legend is below the table, followed by commentary. There is also a table comparing actual vs. expected run scored and run allowed totals, as well as actual vs. expected winning percentages.

Rank Chg Team wOBA eRS tRA tRns Fld eRA eW%lg LgAdj eW%
1 0 TB 0.363 463 4.76 368 21.9 346 0.638 11.0 0.662
2 +2 NYA 0.361 443 4.85 366 1.0 365 0.595 10.6 0.620
3 0 BOS 0.344 400 4.24 321 -14.5 336 0.583 10.7 0.610
4 -2 TOR 0.339 401 4.50 356 4.8 351 0.563 11.0 0.590
5 0 LAN 0.335 387 4.17 328 11.8 316 0.594 -10.8 0.565
6 +7 CHA 0.322 331 4.11 310 -6.8 317 0.519 10.7 0.550
7 -1 DET 0.330 350 4.86 364 19.2 345 0.507 10.7 0.536
8 -1 COL 0.326 350 3.99 302 -1.7 304 0.565 -10.7 0.535
9 -1 MIN 0.334 379 4.79 370 -6.5 377 0.503 11.0 0.531
10 -1 TEX 0.333 356 4.97 376 18.5 357 0.499 10.6 0.527
11 0 LAA 0.339 371 5.05 372 -6.2 378 0.490 10.4 0.517
12 -2 CLE 0.337 397 5.15 400 -19.7 420 0.472 11.0 0.499
13 +1 KC 0.315 306 4.22 314 -14.7 329 0.467 10.6 0.498
14 +4 SEA 0.317 316 4.77 361 17.3 343 0.462 10.6 0.492
15 0 BAL 0.331 357 4.85 365 -23.5 389 0.460 10.7 0.487
16 +1 MIL 0.334 369 4.93 372 13.9 358 0.514 -10.7 0.486
17 -1 PHI 0.340 381 5.09 379 4.4 375 0.508 -10.3 0.482
18 -6 NYN 0.332 362 4.59 345 -14.9 360 0.502 -10.6 0.474
19 +3 ARI 0.312 323 4.21 329 6.4 322 0.501 -10.7 0.470
20 +3 PIT 0.325 342 4.92 369 21.9 347 0.493 -10.7 0.464
21 -2 STL 0.324 343 4.53 352 4.2 348 0.493 -11.0 0.463
22 -1 ATL 0.315 319 4.10 312 -15.2 327 0.488 -10.6 0.458
23 +1 OAK 0.304 288 4.40 335 -7.1 342 0.422 10.6 0.452
24 -4 CHN 0.308 296 4.27 315 5.5 309 0.480 -10.3 0.449
25 +3 SF 0.306 287 4.30 322 8.7 313 0.461 -10.6 0.429
26 0 FLA 0.323 350 4.74 373 -15.0 388 0.452 -11.0 0.424
27 0 HOU 0.322 330 4.87 369 -1.9 371 0.445 -10.4 0.417
28 -3 CIN 0.310 304 4.80 363 19.8 343 0.444 -10.4 0.414
29 0 WAS 0.328 354 5.28 393 -22.8 416 0.422 -10.4 0.396
30 0 SD 0.318 320 5.05 383 -8.9 392 0.404 -10.6 0.377

 

Offense = wOBA (park-corrected), eRS (estimated runs scored; wRC from FanGraphs, then park adjusted)
Pitching = tRA and tRns are a home-brew version of Graham MacAree's statistic.
Fielding = Fld: average of bUZR (from FanGraphs) and THT's batted balls statistic (converted to runs)
eRA (estimated runs allowed) = Pitching - Fielding
eW%lg = estimated winning percentage within the specific league (AL or NL)
LgAdj = league adjustment (bonus to AL teams, penalty to NL teams, because the AL has superior level of play)
eW% = estimated winning percentage if all teams were in one league (after league adjustment)
Methods provided in more detail in the first post in this series

Team Leaders (asterisks indicate teams improving in specific ranking):

American League
Offense (wOBA): Rays, Yankees, Red Sox
Pitching (tRA): White Sox, Royals, Red Sox
Fielding (Fld): Rays*, Tigers*, Rangers

National League
Offense (wOBA): Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers*
Pitching (tRA): Rockies, Braves, Dodgers
Fielding (Fld): Pirates*, Reds, Brewers

"On Paper" Playoff Leaders (asterisks indicate new leaders):

American League: E=Rays, C=White Sox*, W=Rangers, WC=Yankees*
National League: E=Phillies*, C=Brewers, W=Dodgers, WC=Rockies

This Week's Big Movers:

The Rays are starting to build a substantial lead in the power rankings, despite having the three next-best teams all in their division.  It's showing in real life too-they're just four games behind the Red Sox and gaining.  They've won 9 of their last 10, and are currently the only team expected to have a 0.600+ winning percentage in their own league (eW%lg).  It's gratifying to see a team the power rankings has liked so well all season long finally showing some progress in the actual standings...maybe we're onto something here.

The White Sox have been almost as hot, and it shows in the power rankings.  They've soared up to 6th place overall with an outstanding week (winning 6 of their last 7), and leap-frogged over the Tigers to capture the on-paper lead in the AL Central (four games back in reality).  They have had the best pitching in the American League this year, and that's the main reason that they are where they are.

My poor Reds are continuing to fall, despite the return of Joey Votto, outstanding fielding, and actually improving their expected winning percentage vs. last week (0.409 last week, 0.414 this week--that's life!).  They swapped places this week with the Giants, which should make a lot of the conspiracy theorists from earlier in the season happy.

Speaking of the Reds....the NL Central is kind of sucky.  The Brewers (16th) are a respectable team, especially in the NL, but after that we have the Pirates(!) at 20th, the Cardinals at 21st, the Cubs at 24th, as Astros at 27th, and the Reds breaking up the rear at 28th!  Yikes. 

Actual vs Expected Performances

Below are actual vs expected winning percentages, runs scored, and runs allowed.  When a team's ranking deviates substantially from their actual performance (e.g. the Giants), this table will hopefully help you see why.

Rank Team eW%lg PythW% TrueW% TrueRS ExpRS TrueRA ExpRA
1 TB 0.638 0.613 0.557 446 463 353 346
2 NYA 0.595 0.572 0.579 423 443 365 365
3 BOS 0.583 0.593 0.610 389 400 319 336
4 TOR 0.563 0.544 0.519 383 401 349 351
5 LAN 0.594 0.613 0.628 388 387 303 316
6 CHA 0.519 0.495 0.506 330 331 334 317
7 DET 0.507 0.531 0.558 368 350 345 345
8 COL 0.565 0.540 0.532 360 350 330 304
9 MIN 0.503 0.534 0.506 373 379 347 377
10 TEX 0.499 0.525 0.539 359 356 341 357
11 LAA 0.490 0.522 0.560 385 371 368 378
12 CLE 0.472 0.457 0.392 403 397 440 420
13 KC 0.467 0.422 0.434 305 306 361 329
14 SEA 0.462 0.473 0.513 305 316 324 343
15 BAL 0.460 0.435 0.455 356 357 408 389
16 MIL 0.514 0.513 0.545 368 369 358 358
17 PHI 0.508 0.528 0.527 383 381 362 375
18 NYN 0.502 0.484 0.487 342 362 354 360
19 ARI 0.501 0.447 0.403 325 323 364 322
20 PIT 0.493 0.510 0.468 344 342 337 347
21 STL 0.493 0.510 0.519 353 343 346 348
22 ATL 0.488 0.471 0.474 313 319 333 327
23 OAK 0.422 0.449 0.421 327 288 364 342
24 CHN 0.480 0.499 0.486 295 296 296 309
25 SF 0.461 0.539 0.553 308 287 282 313
26 FLA 0.452 0.469 0.506 369 350 394 388
27 HOU 0.445 0.459 0.480 316 330 345 371
28 CIN 0.444 0.479 0.493 313 304 327 343
29 WAS 0.422 0.372 0.293 326 354 427 416
30 SD 0.404 0.382 0.447 316 320 407 392
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