Welcome to our weekly ranking of all the MLB teams! In this ranking, we use aggregate team hitting, pitching, and fielding statistics--not team wins, losses, runs scored, or runs allowed--to evaluate the performance of teams to date. You can think of the estimated winning percentage (eW%) below as how we'd expect teams to fall out if we threw teams with these aggregate statistics into one big league and let them battle it out for thousands of games.
The table is sortable if you click in the header. All data are park-adjusted when possible. A legend is below the table, followed by commentary. There is also a table comparing actual vs. expected run scored and run allowed totals, as well as actual vs. expected winning percentages.
Offense = wOBA (park-corrected), eRS (estimated runs scored; wRC from FanGraphs, then park adjusted)
Pitching = tRA and tRns are a home-brew version of Graham MacAree's statistic.
Fielding = Fld: average of bUZR (from FanGraphs) and THT's batted balls statistic (converted to runs)
eRA (estimated runs allowed) = Pitching - Fielding
eW%lg = estimated winning percentage within the specific league (AL or NL)
LgAdj = league adjustment (bonus to AL teams, penalty to NL teams, because the AL has superior level of play)
eW% = estimated winning percentage if all teams were in one league (after league adjustment)
Methods provided in more detail in the first post in this series
Team Leaders (asterisks indicate teams improving in specific ranking):
Offense (wOBA): ,
Pitching (tRA): , ,
Offense (wOBA): , , *
Pitching (tRA): , , Dodgers
"On Paper" Playoff Leaders (asterisks indicate new leaders):
American League: E=
National League: E=Phillies*, C=Brewers, W=Dodgers, WC=Rockies
This Week's Big Movers:
The Rays are starting to build a substantial lead in the power rankings, despite having the three next-best teams all in their division. It's showing in real life too-they're just four games behind the Red Sox and gaining. They've won 9 of their last 10, and are currently the only team expected to have a 0.600+ winning percentage in their own league (eW%lg). It's gratifying to see a team the power rankings has liked so well all season long finally showing some progress in the actual standings...maybe we're onto something here.
The White Sox have been almost as hot, and it shows in the power rankings. They've soared up to 6th place overall with an outstanding week (winning 6 of their last 7), and leap-frogged over the Tigers to capture the on-paper lead in the AL Central (four games back in reality). They have had the best pitching in the American League this year, and that's the main reason that they are where they are.
My poor Reds are continuing to fall, despite the return of Joey Votto, outstanding fielding, and actually improving their expected winning percentage vs. last week (0.409 last week, 0.414 this week--that's life!). They swapped places this week with the Giants, which should make a lot of the conspiracy theorists from earlier in the season happy.
Speaking of the Reds....the NL Central is kind of sucky. The Brewers (16th) are a respectable team, especially in the NL, but after that we have the Pirates(!) at 20th, the Cardinals at 21st, the Cubs at 24th, as Astros at 27th, and the Reds breaking up the rear at 28th! Yikes.
Actual vs Expected Performances
Below are actual vs expected winning percentages, runs scored, and runs allowed. When a team's ranking deviates substantially from their actual performance (e.g. the Giants), this table will hopefully help you see why.