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Ross Ohlendorf is a smart guy. First of all, he went to Princeton. Secondly, his major was in Operations Research and Financial Engineering. So what did he do his college thesis on? The draft. Be still, my heart. Here's a snippet --

The 126-page thesis is brilliantly written and so complex, only a mathematician would be able to completely comprehend its meaning. So Ohlendorf broke down his thesis in layman's terms. For each player, he estimated how much less the team paid the player in each of his pre-free agency years than it would have paid a comparable free agent. He gathered salary data for both the players in the study and for all free agents for the relevant years. He used Win Shares (a statistical formula used by Bill James) to determine each player's value.

"Many of the players in the study did not make the major leagues,'' Ohlendorf said. "However, many of those who did produced tremendous returns for the teams who drafted them. When looked at as a group, the internal rate of return on all the draft picks in the study was 60 percent. This is an extremely high rate of return. It is saying that if you invest $1, it will grow to $1.60 after a year and $2.56 after two years, and so on … I believe the stock market has had a historical rate of about seven or eight percent, prior to the last year. So even though many of the investments did not work out, the upside on those that did was so great, signing the high picks to large bonuses appears to have been a very smart investment.''

Ross, if you are out there, we'd love to have you as a guest writer at BtB!

5 months ago Banny_tiny erik 17 comments 0 recs  | 

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When players

start to embrace sabermetrics on a larger scale, its going to be fantastic for the game of baseball.

by dougdirt on Jun 6, 2009 5:04 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Really?

I don’t think it’ll make that much of a difference.

by Brendan Scolari on Jun 7, 2009 3:02 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I can see some good side effects:

Better in-game strategies. Higher expectations of managers, GMs, writers, and broadcasters. When players accept it, that’ll get many more fans to accept it. More challenging of traditional ideas. Better quotes, better discussion of baseball as a game.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jun 7, 2009 8:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Stat-Friendly Pitching Staff

Bannister, Ohlendorf and who else?

by Harry Pavlidis on Jun 6, 2009 8:45 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Halladay?

He’s on any staff of best pitchers.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 6, 2009 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No

He’s talking about pitchers with lots of knowledge about statistical analysis.

by Brendan Scolari on Jun 7, 2009 3:03 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know.

I’m saying Doc is good enough to ignore the qualifications for the list.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 7, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think

They should fire Neal Huntington and replace him with Ross Ohelndorf. thus both installing someone who has a clue as GM and eliminating a huge hole in the rotation.
(to be fair though, Ross is showing signs of improvement this year)

by RollingWave on Jun 7, 2009 1:51 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

it's

more of a joke, I think Huntington’s doing alright so far. but like Dayton Moore, he inherited a huge sink hole, it’ll take a while to look good

by RollingWave on Jun 7, 2009 4:21 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Awesome

I’ll have to start trying to follow him more.

by Brendan Scolari on Jun 7, 2009 3:04 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Let's hope he doesn't break our hearts like Bannister did.

Decrease runs scored?
Maybe.

Decrease winning? Never seen that proven.
-SFTU

by hazel on Jun 7, 2009 10:01 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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