Braves Acquire Nate McLouth From Pirates In Win-Win Deal
First of all, I think the term "win-win" is way over-used. Trades are a zero sum game, and just because both teams receive a good player doesn't mean they each won the trade. When there's a winner, there has to be a loser, and in order for both teams to win, that means the losers need to be the other teams in baseball.
That being said, the trade of Nate McLouth from the Pirates to the Braves in exchange for prospects Gorkys Hernandez, Charlie Morton, and Jeff Locke was actually a win-win move. Let's take a look at the value of each piece of the trade, and then look at the specific situations in Atlanta and Pittsburgh.
The Players
- Nate McLouth, 27, had a breakout season with the bat in 2008, posting a .369 wOBA and 23 runs above average on offense, and is continuing on that pace so far in 2009. It's McLouth's skills in the field that make him a slightly overrated player, however. UZR puts him at -10 runs per 150 games relative to other center fielders and TotalZone puts his 2008 season at -7 runs. Given a typical skillset, that adjusts to about average in a corner outfield spot, and given that the Braves have a number of true center field outfield prospects, they know he's a corner outfielder.
What's McLouth's future value? Well, if over a full season he's +20 runs on offense and a league-average corner outfielder (-7.5 runs), that's a 3.25 WAR player worth about $15M on the free agent market at $4.5M per marginal win. Assuming Atlanta picks up his 2012 option, he's due to earn $1.3M more in 2009, $4.5M in 2010, $6.5M in 2011, and $10.65M in 2012. That's a net value of $32M over the rest of his contract. - Gorkys Hernandez is a center field prospect, debuting at AA this year at age 21. He came to Atlanta in the Edgar Renteria deal and scouts love his speed and ability to hit line drives, although he'll probably never be much of a power guy and could stand to improve his plate discipline. Defense, however, might be his biggest strength. TotalZone saw him at +18 runs per 150 games in 2007 A ball and +27 runs per 150 in 2008 A+ ball.
As a hitter ranked between 51 and 75 by Baseball America (Kevin Goldstein puts him at 78), his future expected value according to Victor Wang's research is $12.6M. - Jeff Locke is a 21-year-old left-handed starting pitcher, who's struggled over his ten starts in A+ ball so far in 2009. Hot-Prospects says his low-90s fastball induces a lot of ground balls and his power curve and change-up have the potential to be plus pitches at the major league level.
As a B-level pitching prospect, according to John Sickels, Locke's future value is $6.5M. - Charlie Morton is a 25-year-old right-handed starting pitcher who's dominated AAA in about 150 innings, but struggled over 14 starts for the Braves last year.
Morton wasn't ranked by BA or online by Sickels, but on the chance he's a C level prospect in his book, and because he certainly should be a cheap, useful option out of the bullpen, let's give him a future expected value of $1M. Bold, I know.
If you add it all up, the Braves win the deal $32M to $20M. Considering they needed outfield help, McLouth won't be pushing anyone of value out of the lineup, and they have a number of other center field and pitching prospects, this was a obviously a good trade for them. As for the Pirates...
Pittsburgh's Motivations
In case you hadn't noticed, the Pirates aren't very good. Sure, they're getting better and I trust Neal Huntington to make them the best team they can be given ownership and payroll constraints, but they're not going to compete for a playoff spot this year, nor in 2010. That's not reason enough to give away every useful player, however. One, Pirates fans need players to root for even on bad teams. And two, winning more games, even when the change is from 72 to 75 games, does bring in additional revenue (or at least is expected to).
But what the Pirates did here was clear the way for their own outfield prospects, including center fielder Andrew McCutchen and corner outfielder Jose Tabata. McCutchen appears to be getting the call immediately and should start in center, while Nyjer Morgan and various combinations of Eric Hinske/Brandon Moss/Craig Monroe will hold down the corners until Tabata and eventually Gorkys are ready for the show. Fortunately for the Pirates, none of those options are near replacement-level, meaning instead of losing 3.25 wins by losing McLouth, they're probably only sacrificing two wins in the near future and less down the road, all for starting players they've already committed to paying.
One quick and dirty way to measure the effect of not competing for a couple years and being able to plug much of the hole left by McLouth is to just not consider his net value to the Pirates until 2011. That bumps his value down from $32M to $13M, putting the gains from the trade ahead of the losses. Yes, that's probably overstating the point, but not by much.
Summary
In a vacuum, without considering the context of either team, the Braves won this deal. While McLouth isn't an All-Star caliber player like many people think he is, he's still pretty good and will be underpaid for the next three and half years. Of course, the Braves and the Pirates aren't in similar situations. The Braves are looking to win both now, while Chipper Jones is still a stud and without a dominant team in the NL East, and down the road. The Pirates, on the other hand, are at least two years from contending, and have good replacement options for McLouth. As a team with a smaller payroll, they also are less interested in paying McLouth's $6.5M and $10.65M salaries in 2011 and 2012, needing to stretch every dollar further than most teams. The Braves certainly gained from this trade, and the Pirates did, too, as they are now more likely to make a playoff appearance over the next five years. The losers? The rest of the teams in the National League, who will find it harder to compete for a playoff spot against two improved teams.
One possible knock against the Pirates is that they could have received a larger return for McLouth. Perhaps that's true, and it's possible the Braves offer wouldn't have gone down from now until the trade deadline if the Pirates wanted to wait on it. Or it's possible that Huntington called around and couldn't find a better offer and the Braves were willing to throw in Morton if the Pirates made the trade now, instead of keeping McLouth from helping in the NL East race for another two months. I'm not sure we can know. Let's just say this trade was a bit better for the Braves, possibly could have been better for the Pirates, and yet was a win for both teams.
0 recs |
9 comments
|
Comments
Why Neil Huntington Is Damaging the Pirates
In the past twelve month he has traded away the entire outfield that produced so well that the Pirates were actually above .500 in the month of May last year. While the argument can always be made that he was justified in trading this extremely productive outfield the fact remains he got very little in return. “Prospects” don’t win games. Players win games. In the interim, the Pirates have guaranteed themselves of their 17th consecutive losing season and the fans have nobody with whom they can associate.
Huntington would have been better served if he had traded what little talent he had for current players (2-for-3 or 1-for-2) giving the team something in return. Instead, the clubhouse is now full of players looking at each other wondering who will be the next to leave knowing that management has thrown in the towell for yet another season while the seats will be vacant as more and more fans decide to stay home and watch reruns of previous Steeler/Penguin successful season. The Pirates were last in the league in attendance before trading McLouth. Now they will be even further behind.
by Illinois Pirate Fan on Jun 4, 2009 1:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Your POV is extremely short sighted in my opinion. I’m sorry you are upset with the deal, with the Pirates and with Neal but what he has done since coming to the team is what had to be done. The Pirates were essentially a step or two better than an expansion team, you simply weren’t going to win your division with what he had to work with. Your farm system hasn’t been in the top 10 for at least 8 years according to BA, I just don’t know how you think he could have pieced together a division winner. With the situation the Pirates were in when Neal took over, treading water and slowly adding 1 MLB piece at a time was NEVER going to work especially when they don’t have the money to get FAs to come play ball for them. The fans would have blasted him either way, the owner will eventually cave in by letting him go because of it but the Pirates will be in much better shape then they were when was hired.
What has he done? He has built DEPTH and that DEPTH is going to allow them to (1) buy some time till their prospects are ready and (2) piece together deals down the road through the surplus of pitching he has acquired. Let’s look at what he has acquired so far:
RHP Charlie Morton, LHP Jeff Locke and OF Gorkys Hernandez for OF Nate McLouth
C Jason Jaramillo for C Ronny Paulino
OF Delwyn Young for 2 PTBNL
C Robinson Diaz for 3B Jose Batista
3B Andy Laroche, RHP Bryan Morris, RHP Craig Hansen and OF Brandon Moss for OF Jason Bay
OF Jose Tabata, RHP Ross Ohlendorf, RHP Danial McCutchen and RHP Jeff Karstons for OF Xavier Nady and LHP Damaso Marte
I may have missed something here or there but he has dealt 3 OF’ers, a LOOGY, 2 backups and 2 PTBNL for 14 young players many of which were or still are top prospects (PP has Tabta as the 76th, Locke as the 145th and Hernandez as the 165th best prospects in baseball). Besides Bay, who is doing very well in Boston, everyone you gave up is struggling or injured. We don’t yet know who those PTBNL will be but you have gotten a lot back from the few quality players you gave up. Is it quantity over quality? Mostly yes but there is quality in there and that depth will buy Neal and his staff time to develop the players he has added through the draft, international market and trades.
On the amateur side, he spent $9.8 million on the draft and rumors have the Pirates all over the top international signee this July in Miguel Sano. What did the previous GM spend?
2008 Draft = $9.8 mill
2007 Draft = $4.5 mill
2006 Draft = $5.9 mill
2005 Draft = $3.7 mill
2004 Draft = $4.1 mill
2003 Draft = $4.4 mill
On top of what we have seen him do with the roster, he has actually built a statistical analysis department (something I don’t think the previous GMs had) and brought in some key personal like Greg Smith the former scouting director for the Tigers.
Do Pirate fans have reason to be upset? Sure they do but it isn’t remotely Neal’s fault. Nate was a fan favorite, they have lost for 17 years and they really don’t care how they win (or care what the perfectly legitimate reasons why they can’t win immediately are) only that they better start winning or they will just dump on everything Pirate related until it happens. The past 17 years of losing has made the majority of the fan base cynical and irrational; as someone who has lived within 2-3 hours of Pittsburgh my whole life and taking in many Pirate games over the past 17 years, you see it and hear it every time you walk into that park. I’m fairly confident in two things when it comes to Neal’s rein in Pittsburgh. First, I’m confident he is going to get this organization on the right track both on and off the field. Second, I’m fairly confident that he will be fired before he gets to see the work he has done and will do between now and then perform on the field. Why is that? Because every move the Pirates make is shot down by the fanbase because they have lost total faith in the organization and Neal unfortunately has the job of reversing all of that.
As far as this deal, Braves probably win by a slight edge but McLouth isn’t the player he has been made out to be by the Pittsburgh media or the Pirates.
by jfish26101 on Jun 4, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
The Pirates were last in the league in attendance before trading McLouth. Now they will be even further behind.
Youre not seriously suggesting that people were going to the ballpark to see McLouth only are you?
the fans have nobody with whom they can associate
Do you know what fans want to be associated with? WINNING. NH is putting them on that path.
I would love to see if someone could run the projections of what the Pirates record would have looked like after the trade deadline with Nady, Bay and Marte still with the team until right now. One can only imagine how bad it would be…sure the outfield was offensively potent but they were defensively wretched. With last year’s first half pitching staff they would be looking at final scores resembling football scores and not baseball scores…
Sure, they were over .500 in May 2008…but what about April08 or June08 or July08? 1 month of 2/3 of your outfield playing over their heads is not the basis for future foundations of the franchise.
"Prospects" don’t win games. Players win games
Good players…you know, the kind that win games, were once prospects. How many players that the Pirates have traded in the last 11 months were really considered elite prospects in any organization?
Bay – No…traded twice before the Pirates got him.
Nady – Yes but didnt seem to live up to his potential.
Marte – LOOGY (that one cost them Rob Mackowiak, last seen languishing with the Newark Bears after not being able to crack the ML roster of the Washington Nationals).
Mclouth – Not a prospect…viewed as a 4th OF until last summer and even then there are those who stick to that opinion.
In exchange for those 4 players In the last 11 months NH grabs:
Tabata – Genuine Prospect
Morris – Genuine Prospect
McCutcheon – Prospect
LaRoche – Genuine Prospect
Locke – Genuine Prospect
Hernandez – Genuine Prospect
You know what, in looking at it you’ve convinced me that I would much rather have all those guys back so I can get excited about bobblehead nights and nothing else after June 1st every year. Come on…That is what your approach would lead to. Rants like that lead me to recommend that you immerse yourself in the discussion the PBC blog where your viewpoint is in the majority…
I sometimes think that Pirates fans would rather have the one year fluke run (like 1997 or like the 2003 Royals) every 10-12 years than a perennial contender. NH was hired to build a winner and not a win right now team but a championship organization. The cupboards he inherited were not only bare, but dry rotting. He couldnt hope it would get better…he had to take action…hope isnt a strategy.
Time will tell if his moves were ultimately the right moves and reasonable people can disagree on the overall quality of the players received but give credit where it is due. The improvements in the team’s depth and farm system between June 1 2008 and June 1 2009 is exponential…That is what will bring success, not band-aid actions like the last regime resorted to (Tony Armas, Jeromy Burnitz, Joe Randa and Sean Casey). Say what you will about NH but it is clear that he is making a serious run at it. Maybe it doesnt work, maybe it does but thus far I like what he is doing.
by Mick Kraut on Jun 4, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
win-win
Sky, you can have a win-win trade. Suppose that I have four outfielders and no third baseman. You have two third baseman but only two decent outfielders. We make the trade and both of us are better off for it. It probably does mean that the other teams in baseball lose, but they don’t get a vote.
http://statspeak.net
by pizzacutter on Jun 4, 2009 3:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree there can be win-win trades, mostly because teams can leverage different strengths and needs.
I just think the term is thrown around way too often.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Jun 4, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
more win-win
It’s also a case of timing. If Gorkys becomes Nate McLouth from 2011-2016, that could be more valuable than having the original Nate from 2009-2012, because it could fit better into the Pirates’ success cycle.
by shawnhoffman on Jun 4, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pitching
Frustration from my Pirates fans is understandable. It was not too long ago when Aramis Ramirez, Jack Wilson, and Brian Giles were suppose to be the leaders that brought the team back to prominence. Stockpiling prospects has been a reused strategy that has failed to make the Pirates a legitimate contender.
The one thing that seperates this movement from other rebuilding efforts is the focus on pitching. Ian Snell, Zach Duke, Jeff Karstens, and Paul Maholm are all young pitchers who can grow. Most succesful dynasties are fueled by young pitching. The Braves of the 1990’s are a good example. Offense can be manufactured, but Pitching is often the difference.
by Killer Bee on Jun 4, 2009 5:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
In terms of pure value
This seems like an okay return for the Pirates. The thing that confuses me, why now? Are they really this worried about freeing up a few million for the draft and Sano? I’m not really sure why a similar value package would leave the table between now and the deadline, so why not shop around a bit longer and see if you can get more? The Braves may not have overvalued McLouth’s glove, but there might have been an organization out there that would have.
The other question seems to be, if you’re ready to give McCutchen the job as a direct result of this, isn’t Gorkys Hernandez a little ironic as a primary chip? It seems like the most likely outcome is Gorkys winds up getting blocked by McCutchen, though an outfield containing both of them could be pretty entertaining.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Jun 5, 2009 3:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

by 










BtB on Facebook
















