Pitch Count Theories

by Sky Kalkman on Jun 3, 2009 1:07 PM EDT

Someone asked me about pitch counts via email today. My short answer is "I don't know." My longer answer is that the pitch count topic is one of those things that definitely matters, but we haven't been able to control for all the variables in order to say how much and for whom to any significant degree. To help understand the issue, I found the following links, which might be useful in understanding all the problems involved with analyzing pitch counts.

Short Term Pitch Counts
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1477

Long Term Pitch Counts
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1480

Hardball Times Series:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/what-pitch-counts-hath-wrought/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/what-pitch-counts-hath-wrought-part-deux/

Baseball Prospectus also tracks PAP (pitch abuse points) so you could fool around with those numbers:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204015

And here's a good discussion of PAP pros and cons:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/pap/#comments

Are there any other studies I'm missing? Feel free to link to them. Any additional points to make? Any ideas for further study?

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A few more

http://statspeak.net/2008/05/on-the-100-pitch-limit.html

http://statspeak.net/2008/06/more-on-pitcher-fatigue.html

http://statspeak.net/2008/06/pitcher-fatigue-batted-balls-and-dips.html

http://statspeak.net

by pizzacutter on Jun 3, 2009 2:10 PM EDT reply actions

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/do_pitchers_today_have_it_better_because_of_medicine_and_technology/

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/does_pap_work/

by tangotiger on Jun 4, 2009 1:57 PM EDT reply actions

I only looked at the two hardballtimes links, but using the estimated pitch count formula, I calculated the average per start pitch count for all pitchers, and then grouped by the decade that the pitcher made his debut.

1870s 127
1880s 131
1890s 129
1900s 123
1910s 116
1920s 116
1930s 116
1940s 112
1950s 109
1960s 109
1970s 105
1980s 103
1990s 100
2000s 97

Yes, every decade from the 60s onward showed a drop, but there is a downward trend for the entire history of the sport. Pretty much at any time you could have compared the current generation to the previous couple and said ‘Why don’t these guys pitch as much anymore?’

by erosen on Jun 15, 2009 11:43 AM EDT reply actions